A Hospitability Map Approach for Estimating a Mobile Targets Location

Abstract

The following problem is considered. An air vehicle detects a mobile target using its own sensor(s), but delays attack. While the target is being detected, the air vehicle takes several looks at the target, thus producing target state estimates. Some time later (on the order of minutes), the same or another air vehicle views the target area again. The target is not detected on the second set of looks. We assume that it has moved. Since the target has moved away, where should we look for it? This is a prediction and search problem. Prediction uses historic information to predict the future states (location and kinematics), and search is to look for the target based on the prediction results. Since we assume that the time separation between the two set of looks is quite significant, traditional prediction based on historic kinematics information alone will not work well. The target kinematics information is diluted quickly as the radius of possible target locations from that of the first set of looks gets bigger. However, the previous kinematics (target route history) at least provides a center location for future possible target locations. As will be shown, we can rely on terrain-based state prediction to determine the likelihood of the new target position. The effects of the terrain are captured by something known as a hospitability map. A hospitability map provides a likelihood or a ”weight” for each point on the earths surface proportional to the ability of a target to move and maneuver at that location.