The Next Twenty Years: Medical Science and the Practice of Geriatrics

Summary

For the next 20 years, geriatrics will require and receive increased attention. The treatment, prevention, health promotion, and research related to aging and the aged will be influenced by socioeconomic factors and by the status and trends of the health and disability characteristics of the elderly population. The increase in longevity has not been accompanied by a significant change in the onset of disability, namely, the compression of infirmity. New and existing diseases should be anticipated. Hence flexibility is needed to respond to changes associated with diagnosis, treatment, and long-term care. Rapidly emerging scientific knowledge and technological advances will greatly alter medical practice. Innovative models of patient care must be initiated with careful cost- effectiveness and cost/benefit evaluations. The allocation of limited resources will be a serious problem for the medical profession and will be a major political issue.