Demographic Trends, Global and Indian Scene, and Implications

Abstract

World population passed the 5 billion mark recently and India’s population accounted for ahout 15% of that number. It is believed that world population will stabilize at about 10 billion around the year 2050, and at that time India is expected to have between 1.3 to 1.6 billion persons. Patterns of growth and ultimate size of the world population will depend heavily on what happens in Africa and Asia (Table 1.1). In 1985 when the world population was 4.8 billion, Asia and Africa accounted for 58,2% and 11.5% of the population, respectively. The medium variant of United Nations estimates and projections reported here suggests that by the year 2025, when the world population will be 8.2 billion, Asia and Africa will account, respectively, for 55.3% and 19% of the world population. Further, in mid-1985 Africa had 37% of its population below age 25 whereas Asia had 33% in the same age group. Level of urbanization was equally poor in the two areas, being 30% in Africa and 27% in Asia. The next 15 to 20 years will be crucial as the potential for higher fertility will be strong in this period.