Abstract
SPBMODEL is a computer simulation model that predicts southern pine beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Scolytidae), infestation growth in currently infested pine stands over a three-month period. SPBMODEL estimates number of currently infested trees, cumulative total number of dead trees, and associated timber volume and dollar losses in loblolly (Pinus taeda L.) or shortleaf (P. echinata Mill.) pine stands.
SPBMODEL simulates reproduction, development, and mortality of stage-specific cohorts of southern pine beetle (SPB) within and between infested trees. Three methods were used to estimate model parameters: field data (particlar mortality rates and densities), laboratory studies (development rates), and estimateion using the model (between-tree parameters).
SPBMODEL has been modified extensively to accomodate prospective users, i.e. forest pest managers. The model has been made available on U.S. Forest Service’s Data General mainframe computer, and a personal computer version of the model has been developed and distributed. The model has been tested using data from 70 infested spots in five southern states. Those tests showed mean absolute error of 16.7% for predicted number of dead trees over a 92-day prediction period. The model is being used by the Forest Service as an aid in making control recommendations in SPB infestations. SPBMODEL also provides an efficient means of testing research hypotheses, such as the importance of insect natural enemies in controlling SPB spot growth.
Our current research is focused on defining mechanisms of host tree resistance and suitability and evaluating their roles on SPB reproduction and mortality. The data base for testing the model’s performance will be expanded to include a wider geographic area. Information on overwintering SPB populations is lacking, and incorporation of such data would enhance the model’s usefulness to resource managers.
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© 1989 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Lih, M.P., Stephen, F.M. (1989). Modeling Southern Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) Population Dynamics: Methods, Results and Impending Challenges. In: McDonald, L.L., Manly, B.F.J., Lockwood, J.A., Logan, J.A. (eds) Estimation and Analysis of Insect Populations. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol 55. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-3664-1_17
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-3664-1_17
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