Accounting for Residual Value and the Probability of War When Estimating Cost-To-Effectiveness Ratios for Evaluating Alternative Military Weapon Systems

Conference paper


This paper is concerned with Cost and Effectiveness studies that contrast weapon system candidates for specific missions within the context of a simulated broader war scenario. The following two issues are examined:
  1. (1)

    The concept of a weapon system’s Residual Value for inclusion to calculating cost-effectiveness ratios, and

  2. (2)

    Introduction of the influence of the Probability of War upon how the cost of war is counted toward cost-effectiveness study results. The conclusion of this paper is that cost-effectiveness modelling should consider both the most probable war scenario which will occur if deterrence fails as well as a sustained peacetime. It is hoped that this paper will invite beneficial debate surrounding the alternatives for linking cost and effectiveness indices.



Effectiveness Index Replacement Cost Weapon System Specific Mission Hypothetical System 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag New York Inc. 1991

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Applied Research, Inc.RosslynUSA

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