Abstract
Icebergs pose a serious risk to fixed marine structures in northern waters. In this case study, the analysts were provided with three months of data on iceberg movements, weather, and ocean conditions in the vicinity of an oil-drilling platform in the South Labrador Sea during the 1980 summer drilling season. The analysts’ task was to use the data to construct a probabilistic forecasting model of iceberg motion which could provide a platform operator with an estimate of the collision risk posed to the platform by a nearby iceberg.
Résumé
En eaux nordiques, les icebergs sont une source constante de danger pour les structures flottantes stationnaires érigées au grand large. Pour tenter de mieux cerner ce danger, des observateurs ont été chargés de relever les mouvements des icebergs ainsi que les conditions climatiques et maritimes prévalent dans les parages d’une plate-forme de forage du sud de la Mer du Labrador. Le cueillette de données s’est poursuivie pendant trois mois au cours de l’été 1980. Les analystes auxquels ces données ont été confiées avaient pour mission de construire un modèle probabiliste apte à prédire les déplacements des icebergs. Le modèle devait permettre en outre d’évaluer les risques de collision auxquels la plate-forme de forage est exposée.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Ball, P.; Gaskill, H.S., and Lopez, R.J. (1981). Iceberg motion: An analysis of two data sets collected at drill sites in the Labrador Sea. Technical Report No. 81–2, Centre for Cold Ocean Resources Engineering, Memorial University, St. John’s, Newfoundland.
Bartlett, M.S. (1938). Further aspects of the theory of multiple regression. Proc. Cambridge Philos. Soc., 34, 33–40.
Box, G.E.P., and Jenkins, G.M. (1970). Time Series Analysis—Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco.
Box, G.E.P., and Jenkins, G.M. (1976). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Revised Edition. Holden-Day, San Francisco.
Craven, P., and Wahba, G. (1979). Smoothing noisy data with spline functions. Numer. Math., 31, 377–403.
Garrett, C. (1984). Statistical prediction of iceberg trajectories. Iceberg Research, 7, to appear.
Hsiung, C.C., and Aboul-Azm, A.F. (1982). Iceberg drift affected by wave action. Ocean Engrg., 9, 433–439.
Li, W.K., and McLeod, A.I. (1981). Distribution of the residual auto-correlation in multivariate ARMA time series models. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. B, 43, 231–239.
Morgan, C.W. (1970). Iceberg distribution in Baffin Bay and the Labrador Sea as determined from preseason ice patrol flights by the United States Coast Guard. Report of the International Ice Patrol Service in the North Atlantic Ocean, Bulletin No. 56, 28–72.
Mountain, D.G. (1980). On predicting iceberg drift. Cold Regions Sci. Technol., 1, 273–282.
Scott Polar Research Institute. (1979). Shipping losses caused by ice, 1890–1977. Polar Record, 19, 343–362.
Smith, S.D., and Banke, E.G. (1983). The influence of winds, currents and towing forces on the drift of icebergs. Cold Regions Sci. Technol. 6, 241–255.
Snyder, W.V. (1978). Algorithm 531 — Contour Plotting [J6]. Collected Algorithms from ACM.
Tiao, G.C., and Box, G.E.P. (1981). Modeling multiple time series with applications. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc., 76, 802–816.
Tiao, G.C.; Box, G.E.P.; Grupe, M.R.; Hudak, G.B.; Bell, W.R., and Chang, I. (1979). The Wisconsin multiple time series (WMTS-1) program: A preliminary guide. Dept. of Statistics, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, Wis., U.S.A.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1994 Springer-Verlag New York, Inc.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Gentleman, J.F., Whitmore, G.A., Moore, M., Zwiers, F.W. (1994). Iceberg paths and collision risks for fixed marine structures. In: Gentleman, J.F., Whitmore, G.A. (eds) Case Studies in Data Analysis. Lecture Notes in Statistics, vol 94. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2688-8_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-2688-8_3
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-0-387-94410-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-2688-8
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive