ARAR

Abstract

To run the program ARAR, double click on the arar icon in the itsmw window (or type ARAR↩ from the DOS prompt) and press ↩. You will then see a brief introductory statement. The program is an adaptation of the ARARMA forecasting scheme of Newton and Parzen (see The Accuracy of Major Forecasting Procedures, ed. Makridakis et al., John Wiley, 1984, pp.267 – 287). The latter was found to perform extremely well in the forecasting competition of Makridakis, the results of which are described in the book. The ARARMA scheme has a further advantage over most standard forecasting techniques in being more readily automated.