An understanding of the natural history of treated and untreated disease is essential to the physician, is an area of utmost concern to patients, and is the basis of most decisions about management. The clinician faces numerous questions about the risk of certain events and the natural history of various disease states. Given a patient of a certain age and sex, what is the probability that symptomatic coronary heart disease will develop in the next 5 years? Given such a patient, together with the results of certain diagnostic maneuvers, what is the probability that significant coronary heart disease is already present? Given a set of characteristics of a coronary bypass surgery candidate, what is the probability that he or she will survive at least 5 years after surgery?.
KeywordsDeep Vein Thrombosis Critical Event Cumulative Probability Untreated Group Cumulative Risk
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