Collective Rationality

Abstract

In 1984, the editors of the journal Science 84 planned to announce a game in which every reader could apply for either $20 or $100. If fewer than 20% of the readers applied for $100, then everybody would receive the money applied for. If, however, more than 20% of the readers applied for $100, then nobody would receive anything. Unfortunately, the owner of the journal was afraid of losing his shirt, and the game was not announced. It seems that Lloyds of London had declined to insure the journal against loss: “Sorry and all that, you know Just too great a degree of risk.” In the end, the editors ex-plained their idea and why they couldn’t proceed as planned. They announced the same game but in a hypothetical form. They invited readers to write in how much they would have applied for if there had been a real competition.