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Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making

  • Chapter
Tools to Aid Environmental Decision Making

Abstract

Those making environmental decisions must not only characterize the present, they must also forecast the future. They must do so for at least two reasons. First, if a no-action alternative is pursued, they must consider whether current trends will be favorable or unfavorable in the future. Second, if an intervention is pursued instead, they must evaluate both its probable success given future trends and its impacts on the human and natural environment. Forecasting, by which I mean explicit processes for determining what is likely to happen in the future, can help address each of these areas.

“The Ford engineering staff, although mindful that automobile engines provide exhaust gases, feels that these waste vapors are dissipated in the atmosphere quickly and do not present an air pollution problem.” Official spokesperson for the Ford Motor Company in 1953 in response to a letter from the Los Angeles county supervisor Cerf and Navasky, 1984, p. 38.

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Authors
  1. J. Scott Armstrong
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  2. Julia A. Trevarthen
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, 37831-6036, USA

    Virginia H. Dale (Senior Scientist) (Senior Scientist)

  2. Energy, Environment and Resources Center, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996-4134, USA

    Mary R. English (Research Leader) (Research Leader)

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© 1999 Springer Science+Business Media New York

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Armstrong, J.S., Trevarthen, J.A. (1999). Forecasting for Environmental Decision Making. In: Dale, V.H., English, M.R. (eds) Tools to Aid Environmental Decision Making. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1418-2_7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-1418-2_7

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-387-98556-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-1418-2

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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