Strategies for Analyzing and Using Environmental Systems Models

Abstract

Chapter Objectives—

After you finish this chapter,you should be able to:

• 1. Outline a strategy for analyzing and using an environmental systems model.

• 2. Given a modeling problem, develop a purpose statement for using the model.

• 3. Check the structural validity and predictive validity of the model by using:

  • The systems diagram and a description of the system.

  • Baseline behavior patterns

  • Steady State behavior patterns

  • Runaway behavior patterns

• 4. Conduct an exploratory analysis to develop an understanding of the system’s dynamic behavior. This analysis will include:

  • Experiments to observe the system’s response to pulse, ramp, or step inputs.

  • Sensitivity analysis to identify the “high-leverage” variables in the system.

• 5. Perform a case analysis with the model in order to evaluate the impact of potential changes to the system.