Abstract
Bayesian statistics, a currently controversial viewpoint concerning statistical inference, is based on a definition of probability as a particular measure of the opinions of ideally consistent people. Statistical inference is modification of these opinions in the light of evidence, and Bayes’ theorem specifies how such modifications should be made. The tools of Bayesian statistics include the theory of specific distributions and the principle of stable estimation, which specifies when actual prior opinions may be satisfactorily approximated by a uniform distribution. A common feature of many classical significance tests is that a sharp null hypothesis is compared with a diffuse alternative hypothesis. Often evidence which, for a Bayesian statistician, strikingly supports the null hypothesis leads to rejection of that hypothesis by standard classical procedures. The likelihood principle emphasized in Bayesian statistics implies, among other things, that the rules governing when data collection stops are irrelevant to data interpretation. It is entirely appropriate to collect data until a point has been proven or disproven, or until the data collector runs out of time, money, or patience.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Anscombe, F.J. Bayesian statistics. Amer. Statist., 1961, 15(1), 21–24.
Bahadur, R.R., & Robbins, H. The problem of the greater mean. Ann. Math. Statist., 1950, 21, 469–487.
Barnard, G.A. A review of “Sequential Analysis” by Abraham Wald. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1947, 42, 658–6
Barnard, G.A., Jenkins, G.M., & Winsten, C.B. Likelihood, inferences, and time series. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., 1962, 125 (Ser. A), 321–372.
Bayes, T. Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., 1763, 53, 370–418. (Reprinted: Biometrika, 1958, 45, 293-315.)
Berkson, J. Some difficulties of interpretation encountered in the application of the chi-square test. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1938, 33, 526–542.
Berkson, J. Tests of significance considered as evidence. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1942, 37, 325–335.
Birnbaum, A. On the foundations of statistical inference. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1962, 57, 269–306.
Blackwell, D., & Dubins, L. Merging of opinions with increasing information. Ann. Math. Statist., 1962, 33, 882–886.
Borel, E. La théorie du jeu et les équations intà grales à noyau symétrique. CR Acad. Sci., Paris, 1921, 173, 1304–1308. (Trans, by L.J. Savage, Econometrica, 1953, 21, 97-124)
Borel, E. A propos d’un traité de probabilités. Rev. Phil., 1924, 98, 321–336. (Reprinted: In: Valeur pratique et philosophie des probabilités. Paris: Gauthier-Villars, 1939. Pp. 134-1
Bridgman, P.W. A critique of critical tables. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 1960, 46, 1394–1401.
Cramer, H. Mathematical methods of statistics. Princeton: Princeton Univer. Press, 1946.
de Finetti, B. Fondamenti logici del ragionamento probabilistico. Boll. Un. mat. Ital., 1930, 9(Ser. A), 258–261.
de Finetti, B. La prévision: Ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives. Ann. Inst. Henri Poincaré, 1937, 7, 1–68.
de Finetti, B. La probabilité e la statistica nei rapporti con l’induzione, secondo i diversi punti da vista. In, Induzione & statistica. Rome, Italy: Istituto Matematico dell’Universita, 1959.
de Finetti, B., & Savage, L.J. Sul modo di scegliere le probabilità iniziali. In, Biblioteca del “metron” Ser. C, Vol. 1. Sui fondamenti della statistica. Rome: University of Rome, 1962. Pp. 81–154.
Edwards, W. Dynamic decision theory and probabilistic information processing. Hum. Factors, 1962, 4, 59–73. (a)
Edwards, W. Subjective probabilities inferred from decisions. Psychol. Rev., 1962, 69, 109–135. (b)
Edwards, W. Probabilistic information processing in command and control systems. Report No. 3780-12-T, 1963. Institute of Science and Technology, University of Michigan.
Fisher, R.A. Statistical methods for research workers. (12th ed., 1954) Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd, 1925.
Fisher, R.A. Contributions to mathematical statistics. New York: Wiley, 1950.
Fisher, R.A. Statistical methods and scientific inference. (2nd ed., 1959) Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd, 1956.
Good, LJ. Probability and the weighing of evidence. New York: Hafner, 1950.
Good, LJ. Weight of evidence, corroboration, explanatory power, information and the utility of experiments. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., 1960, 22(Ser. B), 319–331.
Grant, D.A. Testing the null hypothesis and the strategy and tactics of investigating theoretical models. Psychol. Rev., 1962, 69, 54–61.
Grayson, C.J., Jr. Decisions under uncertainty: Drilling decisions by oil and gas operators. Boston: Harvard Univer. Press, 1960.
Green, B.J., Jr., & Tukey, J.W. Complex analysis of variance: General problems. Psy-chometrika, 1960, 25, 127–152.
Guilford, J.P. Fundamental statistics in psychology and education. (3rd ed., 1956) New York: McGraw-Hill, 1942.
Halmos, P.R., & Savage, L.J. Application of the Radon-Nikodym theorem to the theory of sufficient statistics. Ann. math. Statist., 1949, 20, 225–241.
Hildreth, C. Bayesian statisticians and remote clients. Econometrica, 1963, 31, in press.
Hodges, J.L., & Lehmann, E.L. Testing the approximate validity of statistical hypotheses. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., 1954, 16(Ser. B), 261–268.
Jeffreys, H. Scientific inference. (3rd ed., 1957) England: Cambridge Univer. Press, 1931.
Jeffreys, H. Theory of probability. (3rd ed., 1961) Oxford, England: Clarendon, 1939.
Koopman, B.O. The axioms and algebra of intuitive probability. Ann. Math., 1940, 41(Ser. 2), 269–292. (a)
Koopman, B.O. The bases of probability. Bull Amer. Math. Soc., 1940, 46, 763–774. (b)
Koopman, B.O. Intuitive probabilities and sequences. Ann. Math., 1941, 42(Ser. 2), 169–187.
Lehmann, E.L. Significance level and power. Ann. math. Statist., 1958, 29, 1167–1176.
Lehmann, E.L. Testing statistical hypotheses. New York: Wiley, 1959.
Lindley, D.V. A statistical paradox. Biometrika, 1957, 44, 187–192.
Lindley, D.V. The use of prior probability distributions in statistical inferences and decisions. In, Proceedings of the fourth Berkeley symposium on mathematics and probability. Vol. 1. Berkeley: Univer. California Press, 1961. Pp. 453–468.
Neyman, J. Outline of a theory of statistical estimation based on the classical theory of probability. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., 1937, 236(Ser. A), 333–380.
Neyman, J. L’estimation statistique, traitée comme un problème classique de probabilité. In, Actualités scientifiques et industrielles. Paris, France: Hermann & Cie, 1938. Pp. 25–57. (a)
Neyman, J. Lectures and conferences on mathematical statistics and probability. (2nd ed., 1952) Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Agriculture, 1938. (b)
Neyman, J. “Inductive behavior” as a basic concept of philosophy of science. Rev. Math. Statist. Inst., 1957, 25, 7–22.
Pearson, E.S. In L.J. Savage et al., The foundations of statistical inference: A discussion. New York: Wiley, 1962.
Pratt, J.W. Review of Testing Statistical Hypotheses by E.L. Lehmann. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1961, 56, 163–167.
Raiffa, H., & Schlaifer, R. Applied statistical decision theory. Boston: Harvard University, Graduate School of Business Administration, Division of Research, 1961.
Ramsey, F.P. “Truth and probability” (1926), and “Further considerations” (1928). In, The foundation of mathematics and other essays. New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1931.
Rozeboom, W.W. The fallacy of the null-hypothesis significance test. Psychol. Bull., 1960, 57, 416–428.
Savage, I.R. Nonparametric statistics. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1957, 52, 331–344.
Savage, I.R. Bibliography of nonparametric statistics. Cambridge: Harvard Univer. Press, 1962.
Savage, L.J. The foundations of statistics. New York: Wiley, 1954.
Savage, L.J. The foundations of statistics reconsidered. In, Proceedings of the fourth Berkeley symposium on mathematics and probability. Vol. 1. Berkeley: Univer. California Press, 1961. Pp. 575–586.
Savage, L.J. Bayesian statistics. In, Decision and information processes. New York: Macmillan, 1962. Pp. 161–194. (a)
Savage, L.J. Subjective probability and statistical practice. In L.J. Savage et al., The foundations of statistical inference: A discussion. New York: Wiley, 1962. (b)
Savage, L.J., et al. The foundations of statistical inference: A discussion. New York: Wiley, 1962.
Scheffé, H. The analysis of variance. New York: Wiley, 1959.
Schlaifer, R. Probability and statistics for business decisions. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1959.
Schlaifer, R. Introduction to statistics for business decisions. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1961.
Sinclair, H. Hiawatha’s lipid. Per sped. Biol. Med., 1960, 4, 72–76.
Stein, C. A remark on the likelihood principle. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., 1962, 125(Ser. A), 565–568.
Sterling, T.D. What is so peculiar about accepting the null hypothesis? Psychol. Rep., 1960, 7, 363–364.
Tukey, J.W. The future of data analysis. Ann. math. Statist., 1962, 33, 1–67.
Urey, H.C. Origin of tektites. Science, 1962, 137, 746.
von Neumann, J. Zur Theorie der Gesellschaftsspiele. Math. Ann., 1928, 100, 295–320.
von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. Theory of games and economic behavior. (3rd ed., 1953) Princeton: Princeton Univer. Press, 1947.
Wald, A. On the principles of statistical inference. (Notre Dame Mathematical Lectures, No. 1) Ann Arbor, Mich.: Edwards, 1942. (Litho)
Wald, A. Selected papers in statistics and probability. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1955.
Walsh, J.E. Handbook of nonparametric statistics. Princeton, N.J.: Van Nostrand, 1962.
Wolfowitz, J. Bayesian inference and axioms of consistent decision. Econometrica, 1962, 30, 470–479.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1992 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Edwards, W., Lindman, H., Savage, L.J. (1992). Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research. In: Kotz, S., Johnson, N.L. (eds) Breakthroughs in Statistics. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0919-5_34
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0919-5_34
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-0-387-94037-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-0919-5
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive