Skip to main content

Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research

  • Chapter
Breakthroughs in Statistics

Part of the book series: Springer Series in Statistics ((PSS))

Abstract

Bayesian statistics, a currently controversial viewpoint concerning statistical inference, is based on a definition of probability as a particular measure of the opinions of ideally consistent people. Statistical inference is modification of these opinions in the light of evidence, and Bayes’ theorem specifies how such modifications should be made. The tools of Bayesian statistics include the theory of specific distributions and the principle of stable estimation, which specifies when actual prior opinions may be satisfactorily approximated by a uniform distribution. A common feature of many classical significance tests is that a sharp null hypothesis is compared with a diffuse alternative hypothesis. Often evidence which, for a Bayesian statistician, strikingly supports the null hypothesis leads to rejection of that hypothesis by standard classical procedures. The likelihood principle emphasized in Bayesian statistics implies, among other things, that the rules governing when data collection stops are irrelevant to data interpretation. It is entirely appropriate to collect data until a point has been proven or disproven, or until the data collector runs out of time, money, or patience.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

eBook
USD 16.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 89.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Anscombe, F.J. Bayesian statistics. Amer. Statist., 1961, 15(1), 21–24.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bahadur, R.R., & Robbins, H. The problem of the greater mean. Ann. Math. Statist., 1950, 21, 469–487.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Barnard, G.A. A review of “Sequential Analysis” by Abraham Wald. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1947, 42, 658–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Barnard, G.A., Jenkins, G.M., & Winsten, C.B. Likelihood, inferences, and time series. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., 1962, 125 (Ser. A), 321–372.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bayes, T. Essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., 1763, 53, 370–418. (Reprinted: Biometrika, 1958, 45, 293-315.)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Berkson, J. Some difficulties of interpretation encountered in the application of the chi-square test. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1938, 33, 526–542.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Berkson, J. Tests of significance considered as evidence. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1942, 37, 325–335.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Birnbaum, A. On the foundations of statistical inference. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1962, 57, 269–306.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Blackwell, D., & Dubins, L. Merging of opinions with increasing information. Ann. Math. Statist., 1962, 33, 882–886.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Borel, E. La thĂ©orie du jeu et les Ă©quations intĂ grales Ă  noyau symĂ©trique. CR Acad. Sci., Paris, 1921, 173, 1304–1308. (Trans, by L.J. Savage, Econometrica, 1953, 21, 97-124)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Borel, E. A propos d’un traitĂ© de probabilitĂ©s. Rev. Phil., 1924, 98, 321–336. (Reprinted: In: Valeur pratique et philosophie des probabilitĂ©s. Paris: Gauthier-Villars, 1939. Pp. 134-1

    Google Scholar 

  • Bridgman, P.W. A critique of critical tables. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 1960, 46, 1394–1401.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cramer, H. Mathematical methods of statistics. Princeton: Princeton Univer. Press, 1946.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • de Finetti, B. Fondamenti logici del ragionamento probabilistico. Boll. Un. mat. Ital., 1930, 9(Ser. A), 258–261.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • de Finetti, B. La prĂ©vision: Ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives. Ann. Inst. Henri PoincarĂ©, 1937, 7, 1–68.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Finetti, B. La probabilitĂ© e la statistica nei rapporti con l’induzione, secondo i diversi punti da vista. In, Induzione & statistica. Rome, Italy: Istituto Matematico dell’Universita, 1959.

    Google Scholar 

  • de Finetti, B., & Savage, L.J. Sul modo di scegliere le probabilitĂ  iniziali. In, Biblioteca del “metron” Ser. C, Vol. 1. Sui fondamenti della statistica. Rome: University of Rome, 1962. Pp. 81–154.

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, W. Dynamic decision theory and probabilistic information processing. Hum. Factors, 1962, 4, 59–73. (a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, W. Subjective probabilities inferred from decisions. Psychol. Rev., 1962, 69, 109–135. (b)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Edwards, W. Probabilistic information processing in command and control systems. Report No. 3780-12-T, 1963. Institute of Science and Technology, University of Michigan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fisher, R.A. Statistical methods for research workers. (12th ed., 1954) Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd, 1925.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fisher, R.A. Contributions to mathematical statistics. New York: Wiley, 1950.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Fisher, R.A. Statistical methods and scientific inference. (2nd ed., 1959) Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd, 1956.

    Google Scholar 

  • Good, LJ. Probability and the weighing of evidence. New York: Hafner, 1950.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Good, LJ. Weight of evidence, corroboration, explanatory power, information and the utility of experiments. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., 1960, 22(Ser. B), 319–331.

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Grant, D.A. Testing the null hypothesis and the strategy and tactics of investigating theoretical models. Psychol. Rev., 1962, 69, 54–61.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grayson, C.J., Jr. Decisions under uncertainty: Drilling decisions by oil and gas operators. Boston: Harvard Univer. Press, 1960.

    Google Scholar 

  • Green, B.J., Jr., & Tukey, J.W. Complex analysis of variance: General problems. Psy-chometrika, 1960, 25, 127–152.

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Guilford, J.P. Fundamental statistics in psychology and education. (3rd ed., 1956) New York: McGraw-Hill, 1942.

    Google Scholar 

  • Halmos, P.R., & Savage, L.J. Application of the Radon-Nikodym theorem to the theory of sufficient statistics. Ann. math. Statist., 1949, 20, 225–241.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Hildreth, C. Bayesian statisticians and remote clients. Econometrica, 1963, 31, in press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hodges, J.L., & Lehmann, E.L. Testing the approximate validity of statistical hypotheses. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., 1954, 16(Ser. B), 261–268.

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Jeffreys, H. Scientific inference. (3rd ed., 1957) England: Cambridge Univer. Press, 1931.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeffreys, H. Theory of probability. (3rd ed., 1961) Oxford, England: Clarendon, 1939.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koopman, B.O. The axioms and algebra of intuitive probability. Ann. Math., 1940, 41(Ser. 2), 269–292. (a)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Koopman, B.O. The bases of probability. Bull Amer. Math. Soc., 1940, 46, 763–774. (b)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Koopman, B.O. Intuitive probabilities and sequences. Ann. Math., 1941, 42(Ser. 2), 169–187.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Lehmann, E.L. Significance level and power. Ann. math. Statist., 1958, 29, 1167–1176.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Lehmann, E.L. Testing statistical hypotheses. New York: Wiley, 1959.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Lindley, D.V. A statistical paradox. Biometrika, 1957, 44, 187–192.

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Lindley, D.V. The use of prior probability distributions in statistical inferences and decisions. In, Proceedings of the fourth Berkeley symposium on mathematics and probability. Vol. 1. Berkeley: Univer. California Press, 1961. Pp. 453–468.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neyman, J. Outline of a theory of statistical estimation based on the classical theory of probability. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc., 1937, 236(Ser. A), 333–380.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neyman, J. L’estimation statistique, traitĂ©e comme un problème classique de probabilitĂ©. In, ActualitĂ©s scientifiques et industrielles. Paris, France: Hermann & Cie, 1938. Pp. 25–57. (a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Neyman, J. Lectures and conferences on mathematical statistics and probability. (2nd ed., 1952) Washington, D.C.: United States Department of Agriculture, 1938. (b)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Neyman, J. “Inductive behavior” as a basic concept of philosophy of science. Rev. Math. Statist. Inst., 1957, 25, 7–22.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pearson, E.S. In L.J. Savage et al., The foundations of statistical inference: A discussion. New York: Wiley, 1962.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pratt, J.W. Review of Testing Statistical Hypotheses by E.L. Lehmann. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1961, 56, 163–167.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Raiffa, H., & Schlaifer, R. Applied statistical decision theory. Boston: Harvard University, Graduate School of Business Administration, Division of Research, 1961.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ramsey, F.P. “Truth and probability” (1926), and “Further considerations” (1928). In, The foundation of mathematics and other essays. New York: Harcourt, Brace, 1931.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rozeboom, W.W. The fallacy of the null-hypothesis significance test. Psychol. Bull., 1960, 57, 416–428.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Savage, I.R. Nonparametric statistics. J. Amer. Statist. Ass., 1957, 52, 331–344.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Savage, I.R. Bibliography of nonparametric statistics. Cambridge: Harvard Univer. Press, 1962.

    Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L.J. The foundations of statistics. New York: Wiley, 1954.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L.J. The foundations of statistics reconsidered. In, Proceedings of the fourth Berkeley symposium on mathematics and probability. Vol. 1. Berkeley: Univer. California Press, 1961. Pp. 575–586.

    Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L.J. Bayesian statistics. In, Decision and information processes. New York: Macmillan, 1962. Pp. 161–194. (a)

    Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L.J. Subjective probability and statistical practice. In L.J. Savage et al., The foundations of statistical inference: A discussion. New York: Wiley, 1962. (b)

    Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L.J., et al. The foundations of statistical inference: A discussion. New York: Wiley, 1962.

    Google Scholar 

  • ScheffĂ©, H. The analysis of variance. New York: Wiley, 1959.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Schlaifer, R. Probability and statistics for business decisions. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1959.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schlaifer, R. Introduction to statistics for business decisions. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1961.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sinclair, H. Hiawatha’s lipid. Per sped. Biol. Med., 1960, 4, 72–76.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stein, C. A remark on the likelihood principle. J. Roy. Statist. Soc., 1962, 125(Ser. A), 565–568.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sterling, T.D. What is so peculiar about accepting the null hypothesis? Psychol. Rep., 1960, 7, 363–364.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tukey, J.W. The future of data analysis. Ann. math. Statist., 1962, 33, 1–67.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Urey, H.C. Origin of tektites. Science, 1962, 137, 746.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • von Neumann, J. Zur Theorie der Gesellschaftsspiele. Math. Ann., 1928, 100, 295–320.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. Theory of games and economic behavior. (3rd ed., 1953) Princeton: Princeton Univer. Press, 1947.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Wald, A. On the principles of statistical inference. (Notre Dame Mathematical Lectures, No. 1) Ann Arbor, Mich.: Edwards, 1942. (Litho)

    Google Scholar 

  • Wald, A. Selected papers in statistics and probability. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1955.

    Google Scholar 

  • Walsh, J.E. Handbook of nonparametric statistics. Princeton, N.J.: Van Nostrand, 1962.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Wolfowitz, J. Bayesian inference and axioms of consistent decision. Econometrica, 1962, 30, 470–479.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1992 Springer Science+Business Media New York

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Edwards, W., Lindman, H., Savage, L.J. (1992). Bayesian Statistical Inference for Psychological Research. In: Kotz, S., Johnson, N.L. (eds) Breakthroughs in Statistics. Springer Series in Statistics. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0919-5_34

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0919-5_34

  • Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-387-94037-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4612-0919-5

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics