Mixed Markov Renewal Models of Social Processes

Abstract

Mixed Markov renewal models for movement between social states were proposed in the early 1980s (eg Flinn and Heckman, 1982). This is a promising class of model for analysing work and life history data because of its focus on categorical outcomes, its flexibility in representing both state dependence and duration effects, and its random effects specification. The random effects specification is particularly important given the mounting evidence that failure to allow for the inevitable omission of some relevant explanatory variables from any analysis risks serious inferential error not just on temporal dependencies but also on the effects of explanatory variables included in the model. A corollary of this problem is that the opportunity to provide some measure of control for omitted variables in observational studies is a major justification for collecting and analysing logitudinal data. However, mixed Markov renewal models are rarely used in social science research. Atleast in part this is because researchers have been deterred by the model specification and computational problems posed by the relatively simpler models used for event history analysis. Such methods are thernselves only in routine use in a few areas of social science with established quantitative traditions.