Abstract
A probability forecast provides a decision-maker with a probability distribution for a future outcome, rather than a prediction of the most likely outcome. Meteorologists developed scoring rules to help in both the elicitation and assessment of probability forecasts for precipitation (Murphy and Winkler, 1984). The popularity of meteorologists’ methods for scoring forecasts has now spilled over to areas such as medical diagnosis (Hilden et al.,1978), educational testing (Shuford et al.,1966), management (Sarin and Winkler,1980) and economic forecasts (Friedman, 1983), and it is desirable to score forecasts of continuous Rd-valued outcomes.
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Nolan, D. (1992). Functional Limit Theorems for Probability Forecasts. In: Dudley, R.M., Hahn, M.G., Kuelbs, J. (eds) Probability in Banach Spaces, 8: Proceedings of the Eighth International Conference. Progress in Probability, vol 30. Birkhäuser, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4612-0367-4_30
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