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Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the Development of Scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment

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Research and Technology Management in the Electricity Industry

Part of the book series: Green Energy and Technology ((GREEN))

Abstract

In the present era characterized by uncertainty, innovation and change, scenario planning is an increasingly popular way to look at future environments because of its usefulness in times of uncertainty and complexity. Scenario planning outlines the possible futures, stimulates strategic thinking about the future and helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM)-based scenarios is a very new approach. FCM is based on causal cognitive map which is an accepted intuitive method. This approach combines the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. In this study FCM-based scenarios are developed for the deployment of wind energy in a developing country to illustrate the usefulness of this approach. This study also describes the utilization of various tools proposed in the scenario planning literature to select and validate FCM-based raw scenarios. Moreover, a comparison of FCM-based scenario development approach with other prominent quantitative scenario development techniques is also presented in this chapter.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    CFR existed between 1971 and 1987.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Engineering and Technology Management, Portland State University, SW Fourth, Portland, OR, 97201, USA

    Muhammad Amer, Tugrul Daim & Antonie Jetter

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  1. Muhammad Amer
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  2. Tugrul Daim
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  3. Antonie Jetter
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Correspondence to Tugrul Daim .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. , Engineering and Technology Management, Portland State University, SW Fourth, Portland, 97201, USA

    Tugrul Daim

  2. Bonneville Power Administration, NE 11th Ave 905, Portland, 97207, Oregon, USA

    Terry Oliver

  3. Bonneville Power Administration, NE 11th Ave 905, Portland, 97232, Oregon, USA

    Jisun Kim

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Amer, M., Daim, T., Jetter, A. (2013). Application of Fuzzy Cognitive Map for the Development of Scenarios: A Case Study of Wind Energy Deployment. In: Daim, T., Oliver, T., Kim, J. (eds) Research and Technology Management in the Electricity Industry. Green Energy and Technology. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-5097-8_6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-5097-8_6

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  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4471-5096-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4471-5097-8

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