Use of Multiple Perspectives and Decision Modeling for Solar Photovoltaic Technology Assessment

Abstract

As global warming and foreign oil dependence debates grow, more organizations are evaluating renewable energy. Renewable energy generation technologies are complex systems that have wide-ranging implications in their production and deployment. Using multiple perspectives such as social, technological, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP) and their decomposition into multiple criteria or indicators provide a broader yet explicit assessment of the technology under consideration. An effective method of determining the relative importance of a criterion with respect to others is by hierarchical decision modeling and expert judgment quantification instruments. These combined approaches can improve decision making for technology assessment and selection. This paper describes the approach through an example for photovoltaic solar technologies.

Appendix A: Multiple Criteria and Factors for STEEP Perspectives

1.1 Technical Perspective

Efficiency • Module energy efficiency • Cell energy efficiency • Energy efficiency • Inherent system efficiency • Thermal efficiency • Heating value • PV system yield • Reference yield • Performance ratio • Energy density Technology maturity • Density/maturity of patents and publications • Identify positive trends • Ability to bridge technology gaps • Flexibility/scalability • Modularity • Obsolescence resistant Deployment • Large-scale/power plant installation • Field testing/evaluation/performance • Service availability (uptime of PV system) • Reliability • Power purchase agreements (PPAs) • Optimized to utility scale • Impact on meeting important energy targets • Suitable for BIPV (Bldg integrated PV) • Storage • Transmission • Distribution Resources/materials required • Avoid use of rare metals (e.g. indium) • Avoid hazardous materials (e.g. cadmium) • Resource availability/access • Chemicals, gases, etc.

Production/operations • Production capacity • No. of process steps (production processes complexity) • Leverage mature production processes (e.g. from chip mfg) • Chemicals/gases waste • Wafer thickness • Line breakage • Production maturity Maintenance/warranty • Low maintenance • Long lifetime (20 + years) • Annual degradation warranty • Management of environmental factors (dust, debris, etc.) Codes/standards—compliance • US code • National/international standards • Building/environmental safety standards Technology roadmap (2010–2030) • PV technology (cell/module) • PV technology patents/publications maturity and trends • Inverter and BOS (balance-of-system)

1.2 Social Perspective

Public perception • Aesthetics • Visual Impact • Heterogeneous interests, values, and worldview • Engagement in public policy • Conflict with planned landscape • Synergistic with quality of life improvement policies • Impact of lifestyle • Easy/convenient to use • Legacy for future generations • Social benefits • Social acceptance • Impact on property values • Impact on tourism Employment • Job creation • Addition to employment diversity • Availability of workforce • Poverty alleviation • Increase in production employment • Increase in total employment

Health and safety • Public safety • Work safety • Hazardous health effects (accidental, long-term) • Investment in health of society (indirect) Local infrastructure development • Development/improvement of infrastructure • Support of related industry • Contribution to regional/local improvement • Regional/local empowerment

1.3 Economic Perspective

Product costs • Capital (amortized) • Startup (amortized) • Materials • Direct production • Sales and marketing • R&D/engineering • Administrative • Facilities • Warranty/maintenance • Inverter and BOS (balance-of-system) • Installation • Disposal/recycle (end-of-life) Levelized cost of energy—electricity generation costs • Excluding plant end-of-life shutdown/disposal • Including plant end-of-life shutdown/disposal Financial analysis • Cost/benefit • ROI (return on investment) • EPBT (energy pay back time–energy viability) • LCOE* • Savings to power utilities • Portfolio costs to utilities • Costs trends/roadmap: 2010–2030 • Risk mitigation

Cost mitigation • Independent of Economies of Scale • Energy Supply Chain Advantage (e.g. against fuels) • Reduction of Administrative Costs (e.g. against imports) • Reduction in Subsidies (of fuels) • Reduction in Military Costs (for energy) • Better Use of Hard Currency (for Developing Countries) Market adoption • Market maturity • Product/technology maturity • Supply chain maturity • US Code compliance • Economic multiplier effect (through use of product) • Customer willingness to pay Positive impact on local economy • Higher wage jobs • Creation/expansion of economic clusters • Job creation Creating insourcing trend (versus outsourcing)

1.4 Environmental Perspective

Pollution/negative impact • GHG (Green house gases—affecting climate change) • Particles (smoke, dust, etc.) • Vapor • Visual/glare • Water • Noise • Solid waste • Water resources • Stratospheric ozone • Soil • Natural habitat • Water temperature change • Wind pattern change • Forest and ecosystem • Ecological footprint (crops, woods, etc.) • During production phase • During deployment phase • Accidental release of chemicals

Environmental benefits/positive impact • Better land utilization • Climate change mitigation • Environment sustainability • Low land requirement • Energy conservation improvement • Better consumption of natural resources • Reduced fossil fuel imports/dependence • Better use of rooftops End-of-life/disposal • Biodegradability • Easy recyclability • Leverage mature production processes (e.g. from chip mfg) • Chemicals/gases waste Consumption of resources • Land • Water • Materials

1.5 A-5 Political Perspective

Pollution/negative impact • GHG (Green house gases—affecting climate change) • Particles (smoke, dust, etc.) • Vapor • Visual/glare • Water • Noise • Solid waste • Water resources • Stratospheric ozone • Soil • Natural habitat • Water temperature change • Wind pattern change • Forest and ecosystem • Ecological footprint (crops, woods, etc.) • During production phase • During deployment phase • Accidental release of chemicals

Environmental benefits/positive impact • Better land utilization • Climate change mitigation • Environment sustainability • Low land requirement • Energy conservation improvement • Better consumption of natural resources • Reduced fossil fuel imports/dependence • Better use of rooftops End-of-life/disposal • Biodegradability • Easy recyclability • Leverage mature production processes (e.g. from chip mfg) • Chemicals/gases Waste Consumption of resources • Land • Water • Materials