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Utilizing Risk Analysis and Scenario Planning for Technology Roadmapping

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Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry

Abstract

Technology roadmap aims to direct future paths of advancing technologies and to foster understandings among stakeholders. The path illustrated in the roadmap is regarded as agreed commitment on the targeted technology and enables selected investment on it. However, current technology roadmaps are limited in its adequacy and reliability, because roadmapping tends to focus on proinnovation perspective rather than precaution one. Risks and uncertainties embedded in the presented pathways and major consequences in the future realized by following the roadmaps are often not well presented. In this chapter, we propose to utilize risk analysis and scenario planning for resolving risks and uncertainties in technology roadmap. The approach includes identification of technological, economic, environmental and social risks, and constraints. It also utilizes scenario planning to reduce uncertainties of the future. We discuss the feasibility of the approach in a case of roadmapping of energy technologies.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Graduate School of Innovation Management, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 3-3-6 Shibaura, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 108-0023, Japan

    Yuya Kajikawa

  2. Presidential Endowed Chair for “Platinum Society”, the University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, 113-0033, Japan

    Yasunori Kikuchi

  3. Department of Environmental Engineering, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1 University Road, Tainan, Taiwan, 701, China

    Yasuhiro Fukushima

  4. Sustainable Environment Research Center, National Cheng Kung University, Taiwan, No. 500, Sec. 3, An-Ming Road, Annan District, Tainan, Taiwan, 70955, China

    Yasuhiro Fukushima

  5. Research Center for Energy Technology and Strategy, National Cheng Kung University, No. 1 University Road, Tainan, Taiwan, 701, China

    Yasuhiro Fukushima

  6. Inamori Frontier Research Center, Kyushu University, 744, Motooka Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan

    Michihisa Koyama

  7. International Institute for Carbon-Neutral Energy Research, Kyusyu University, 744, Motooka Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan

    Michihisa Koyama

Authors
  1. Yuya Kajikawa
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  2. Yasunori Kikuchi
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  3. Yasuhiro Fukushima
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  4. Michihisa Koyama
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yuya Kajikawa .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. , School of Management, Sabanci University, Üniversite Cad. 27, Istanbul, 34956, Turkey

    Dilek Cetindamar

  2. , Engineering and Technology Management, Portland State University, SW Fourth, Portland, 97201, USA

    Tugrul Daim

  3. , Science, Technology and Policy Center, METU Üniversiteler, Mah. Dumlupınar Blv, MM Building 1, Çankaya, 06800, Turkey

    Berna Beyhan

  4. , Management Information Systems, Boğaziçi University, Hisar Campus, Bebek, Istanbul, 34342, Turkey

    Nuri Basoglu

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© 2013 Springer-Verlag London

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Kajikawa, Y., Kikuchi, Y., Fukushima, Y., Koyama, M. (2013). Utilizing Risk Analysis and Scenario Planning for Technology Roadmapping. In: Cetindamar, D., Daim, T., Beyhan, B., Basoglu, N. (eds) Strategic Planning Decisions in the High Tech Industry. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-4887-6_12

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-4887-6_12

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, London

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4471-4886-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4471-4887-6

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

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