Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Catastrophe Risk Analysis in Technical Systems Using Bayesian Statistics

  • Conference paper
Book cover Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management ’96

  • 126 Accesses

Abstract

In this paper we present risk analysis models which are built on expert assessments of future risks. These models calibrate and aggregate judgements of the experts in order to predict the future risks. The models are constructed by applying Bayesian statistics.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Apostolakis G. Expert Judgements in Probabilistic Safety assessment. Accelerated Life Testing and Experts’ Opinions in Reliability. Proceedings of the International School of Physics “Enrico Fermi”, 28 July–1 August 1986. Amsterdam, North-Holland, 116–131. Edited by Clarotti C. A. & Lindley D.V.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Bernardo M. J. & Smith M. F.A. Bayesian Theory. Wiley & Sons, Chichester, 1994.

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  3. Bigun, S. E. Risk Analysis of Catastrophes Using Bayes’ Methods. Research Report Department of Statistics, RRDS 1994A: 2, Stockhohn University.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Bigun, S. E. Risk Analysis of Catastrophes Using Bayes’ Methods I: Models which build on experts’ judgements. Research Report Department of Statistics, RRDS 1994B: 10, Stockholm University.

    Google Scholar 

  5. Bigun, S. E. Risk Analysis of Catastrophes Using Bayes’ Methods II: Results from the empirical studies. Research Report Department of Statistics, RRDS 1995A: 1, Stockhohn University.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Bigun, S. E. Risk analysis of major civil aircraft accidents in Europe. European Journal of Operational Research. 20th anniversary, 1995B, special issue.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Bigun, S. E. Bayesian Prediction Based on Few and Dependent Data. In progress.

    Google Scholar 

  8. French S. Updating of belief in the light of some else’s opinion. J. R. Statist. Soc. A 1980; 143: 43–48.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. French S. Group consensus probability distributions: A critical survey. Bayesian statistics 2 1985; 183–202.

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  10. Gåsemyr J. & Natvig B. Using expert opinions in Bayesian estimation of component 1 lifetimes in a shock model — a general predictive approach. Statistical Research Report, university of Oslo, No. 4, 1991.

    Google Scholar 

  11. Gåsemyr J. & Natvig B. Expert opinions in Bayesian estimation of system reliability in a shock model — the MTP connection. Statistical Research Report, university of Oslo, No. 2, 1992.

    Google Scholar 

  12. Huseby A.B. Combining opinions in a predictive case. Bayesian statistics 1988; 3: 641–651.

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  13. Kahneman D. & Slovic P. & Tversky A. Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge University press, Cambridge, 1982.

    Google Scholar 

  14. Lindley V. D & Tversky A. & Brown V. R. On the reconciliation of probability assessments. J. R. Statist. Soc. A, part 2, 1979; 142: 146–180.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  15. Lindley V. D. The improvement of probability judgements. J. R. Statist. Soc. A, part 1, 1982; 145: 117–126.

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  16. Lindley V.D. Reconciliation of discrete probability distributions. Bayesian statistics 1985; 2: 375–390.

    Google Scholar 

  17. Lindley V. D & Singpurwalla. Reliability (and faultree analysis using expert opinions), ASAS 1986; 87-90.

    Google Scholar 

  18. Morris A. P. Decision analysis expert use. Management science 1974; 20: 1233–1241.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  19. Morris A. P. Combining expert judgements: a Bayesian approach. Management science 1977; 22: 679–693.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Morris A. P. An axiomatic approach to expert resolution. Management science 1983; 29: 24–32.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Pörn K. On empirical Bayesian inference applied to poisson probability models. PhD thesis, Linköping University, No. 234, Linköping, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  22. Pulkkinen U. Methods for combination of expert judgements. Reliability Engineering and system Safety 1993; 40: 111–118.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. West M. Modelling expert opinion. Bayesian statistics 1988; 3: 493–508

    Google Scholar 

  24. Winkler R.L. Combining probability distributions from dependent information sources. Management Science 1981; 27: 479–488.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Safety Research, KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, and Department of Statistics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden

    Elizabeth Saers Bigun

Authors
  1. Elizabeth Saers Bigun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. I A PSAM, Joint Research Centre, The European Commission, Institute for Systems, Informatics and Safety, 1-21020, ISPRA (Va), Italy

    P. Carlo Cacciabue PhD

  2. I A PSAM, NCSR ‘Demokritos’, PO Box 60228, GR-15310, Aghin Paraskevi, Greece

    Ioannis A. Papazoglou PhD

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1996 Springer-Verlag London

About this paper

Cite this paper

Bigun, E.S. (1996). Catastrophe Risk Analysis in Technical Systems Using Bayesian Statistics. In: Cacciabue, P.C., Papazoglou, I.A. (eds) Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management ’96. Springer, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3409-1_80

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3409-1_80

  • Publisher Name: Springer, London

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4471-3411-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4471-3409-1

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation