Oil- and Coal-Based Sea Transportation Needs: An Integrated Forecasting Approach

  • Y. H. Venus Lun
  • Olli-Pekka Hilmola
  • Alexander M. Goulielmos
  • Kee-hung Lai
  • T. C. Edwin Cheng
Part of the Shipping and Transport Logistics book series (STL)


Due to the global economic crisis and increasing environmental issues (agreements to prevent CO2 emissions), the overall transportation logistics sector is currently suffering from one of the most severe recessions (as it is a derived demand from economic activities). This is particularly the case in the airline industry and spot market operating sea transportation. In the latter case, oil and coal have very significant shares in the total transportation volume of bulk (liquid and dry). Although the future does not currently look promising for oil and coal transportation throughout the world, this chapter shows that even a further declining economic situation, as well as the leveling-off of production of these commodities could lead to a slight increase in demand for transportation services in the next two decades. This phenomenon is mostly caused by the fact that production and consumption are diverted (coal modestly, but oil greatly), and the import share from production has been on a long-term rise.


Transportation Activity Spot Market Transportation Capacity Transportation Demand Economic Upturn 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Y. H. Venus Lun
    • 1
  • Olli-Pekka Hilmola
    • 2
  • Alexander M. Goulielmos
    • 3
  • Kee-hung Lai
    • 1
  • T. C. Edwin Cheng
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Logistics and Maritime StudiesThe Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong Kong SARPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.Kouvola Research UnitLappeenranta University of TechnologyKouvolaFinland
  3. 3.Department of Maritime StudiesUniversity of PiraeusPiraeusGreece

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