Discovering Surprising Patterns by Detecting Occurrences of Simpson’s Paradox

  • Carem C. Fabris
  • Alex A. Freitas


This paper addresses the discovery of surprising patterns. Recently, several authors have addressed the task of discovering surprising prediction rules. However, we do not focus on prediction rules, but rather on a quite different kind of pattern, namely the occurrence of Simpson’s paradox. Intuitively, the fact that this is a paradox suggests that it has a great potential to be a surprising pattern for the user. With this motivation, we make the detection of Simpson’s paradox the central goal of a data mining algorithm explicitly designed to discover surprising patterns. We present computational results showing surprising occurrences of the paradox in some public-domain data sets. In addition, we propose a method for ranking the discovered instances of the paradox in decreasing order of estimated degree of surprisingness.


Data Mining Knowledge Discovery Prediction Rule Categorical Attribute Central Goal 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.


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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag London Limited 2000

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carem C. Fabris
    • 1
  • Alex A. Freitas
    • 2
  1. 1.CEFET-PR CPGEICuritiba-PRBrazil
  2. 2.PUC-PR PPGIA-CCETCuritiba-PRBrazil

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