Abstract
Portfolio Decision Analysis (PDA) – the application of decision analysis to the problem of selecting a subset or portfolio from a large set of alternatives – accounts for a significant share, perhaps the greater part, of decision analysis consulting. PDA has a sound theoretical and methodological basis, and its ability to contribute to better resource allocation decisions has been demonstrated in numerous applications. This book pulls together some of the rich and diverse efforts as a starting point for treating PDA as a promising and distinct area of study and application. In this introductory chapter, we first describe what we mean by PDA. We then sketch the historical development of some key ideas, outline the contributions contained in the chapters and, finally, offer personal perspectives on future work in this sub-field of decision analysis that merits growing attention.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
Aaker DA, Tyebjee TT (1978) A model for the selection of interdependent R&D projects. IEEE Trans Eng Manage EM-25:30–36
Ackermann F (1996) Participants’ perceptions of the role of facilitators using a GDSS. Group Decis Negot 5:93–112
Argyris N, Figueira JR, Morton A (2011) A new approach for solving multi-objective binary optimisation problems, with an application to the knapsack problem. J Global Optim 49:213–235
Artzner P, Delbaen F, Eber J-M, Heath D (1999) Coherent measures of risk. Math Finance 9(3):203–228
Asher DT (1962) A linear programming model for the allocation of R and D efforts. IRE Trans Eng Manage EM-9:154–157
Barabba V, Huber C, Cooke F, Pudar N, Smith J, Paich M (2002) A multimethod approach for creating new business models: the General Motors OnStar project. Interfaces 32(1):20–34
Bickel E (2010) Decision analysis practice award. Decis Anal Today 29(3):8–9
Bodily SE, Allen MS (1999) A dialogue process for choosing value-creating strategies. Interfaces 29(6):16–28
Bouyssou D, Vansnick J-C (1986) Noncompensatory and generalized noncompensatory preference structures. Theory Decis 21:251–266
Bordley RF, Beltramo M, Blumenfeld D (1999) Consolidating distribution centers can reduce lost sales. Int J Prod Econ 58(1):57–61
Brans JP, Vincke P (1985) A preference ranking organisation method: (The PROMETHEE method for multiple criteria decision-making). Manage Sci 31(6):647–656
Brealey RA, Myers S (2004) Principles of corporate finance, 7th edn. McGraw-Hill, New York
Brummer V, Könnölä T, Salo A (2008) Foresight within ERA-NETs: experiences from the preparation of an international research program. Technol Forecast Soc Change 75(4):483–495
Bryan BA (2010) Development and application of a model for robust, cost-effective investment in natural capital and ecosystem services. Biol Conserv 143(7):1737–1750
Buede DM (1979) Decision analysis: engineering science or clinical Art? Decisions and Designs, McLean
Clemen RT, Kwit RC (2001) The value of decision analysis at Eastman Kodak company. Interfaces 31(5):74–92
Clemen RT, Smith JE (2009) On the choice of baselines in multiattribute portfolio analysis: a cautionary note. Decis Anal 6(4):256–262
Cooper RJ, Edgett S, Kleinschmidt E (2001) Portfolio management for new products, 2nd edn.. Perseus, Cambridge
Danielson M, Ekenberg L, Ekengren A, Hökby T, Lidén J (2008) Decision support process for participatory democracy. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 15(1–2):15–30
de Finetti B (1964) Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources (translation of the article La Prévision: ses lois logiques, ses sources subjectives, Annales de l’Institut Henri Poincaré, 1937). In: Kyburg HE, Smokler HE (eds) Studies in subjective probability. Wiley, New York
Eden C (1990) The unfolding nature of group decision support: two dimensions of skill. In: Eden C, Radford J (eds) Tackling strategic problems: the role of group decision support. Sage, London
Edwards W (1954) The theory of decision making. Psychol Bull 51(4):380–417
Edwards W (1961) Behavioral decision theory. Ann Rev Psychol 12:473–498
Fishburn PC (1964) Decision and value theory. Wiley, New York
Fishburn PC (1970) Utility theory for decision making. Wiley, New York
Fishburn PC (1992) Utility as an additive set function. Math Oper Res 17 (4):910–920
Fox B (1966) Discrete optimization via marginal analysis. Manage Sci 13(3):210–216
Friend JK, Jessop WN (1969) Local government and strategic choice. Tavistock, London
Golabi K, Kirkwood CW, Sicherman A (1981) Selecting a portfolio of solar energy projects using multiattribute preference theory. Manage Sci 27:174–189
Grayson CJ (1960) Decisions under uncertainty: drilling decisions by oil and gas operators. Graduate School of Business, Harvard University, Boston
Gustafsson J, Salo A (2005) Contingent portfolio programming for the management of risky projects. Oper Res 53(6):946–956
Hämäläinen RP (2003) Decisionarium – aiding decisions negotiating and collecting opinions on the Web. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 12(2–3):101–110
Hämäläinen RP (2004) Reversing the perspective on the applications of decision analysis. Decis Anal 1(1):26–31
Haveman RH, Margolis J (eds) (1970) Public expenditures and policy analysis. Markham, Chicago
Heidenberger K, Stummer C (1999) Research and development project and resource allocation: a review of quantitative approaches. Int J Manage Rev 1(2):197–224
Henderson BD (1970) Perspectives on the product portfolio. Boston Consulting Group, Boston
Henriksen A, Traynor A (1999) A practical R&D project-selection scoring tool. IEEE Trans Eng Manage 46(2):158–170
Howard RA (1966) Decision analysis: applied decision theory. Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Operational Research, Wiley-Interscience, New York, pp 55–71
Howard RA (1968) The foundations of decision analysis. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern SSC-4:211–219
Howard RA (1988) Decision analysis: practice and promise. Manage Sci 34(6):679–695
Howard RA, Matheson JE (eds) (1984) Readings on the principles and applications of decision analysis. Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park
Kavadias S, Loch CH (2004) Project selection under uncertainty: dynamically allocating re-sources to maximize value. Kluwer, Dordrecht
Keefer DL (1978) Allocation planning for R & D with uncertainty and multiple objectives. IEEE Trans Eng Manage EM-25:8–14
Keefer DL, Bodily SE (1983) Three-point approximations for continuous random variables. Manage Sci 29(5):595–603
Keefer DL, Kirkwood CW (1978) A multiobjective decision analysis: budget planning for product engineering. J Oper Res Soc 29:435–442
Keeney RL (1982) Decision analysis: an overview. Oper Res 30(5):803–838
Keeney RL, Raiffa H (1976) Decisions with multiple objectives: preferences and value trade-offs. Wiley, New York
Keisler J (2004) Value of information in portfolio decision analysis. Decis Anal 1(3):177–189
Kleinmuntz DN (2007) Resource allocation decisions. In: Edwards W, Miles RF, von Winter-feldt D (eds) Advances in decision analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Krantz DH, Luce DR, Suppes P, Tversky A (1971) Foundations of measurement, vol. I. Academic, New York
Krumm FV, Rolle CF (1992) Management and application of decision analysis in Du Pont. Interfaces 22(6):84–93
Kusnic MW, Owen D (1992) The unifying vision process: value beyond traditional decision analysis in multiple-decision-maker environments. Interfaces 22(6):150–166
Lee SM, Lerro AJ (1974) Capital budgeting for multiple objectives. Financ Manage 3(1):51–53
Liesiö J (2011) Measurable multiattribute value functions for project portfolio selection and resource allocation. Aalto University, Systems Analysis Laboratory, manuscript
Liesiö J, Mild P, Salo A (2007) Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection. Eur J Oper Res 181(3):1488–1505
Liesiö J, Mild P, Salo A (2008) Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies. Eur J Oper Res 190(3):679–695
Liesiö J, Salo A (2008) Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incom-plete probability and utility information. Helsinki University of Technology, Systems Analysis Laboratory Research Reports, E23
Loch CH, Kavadias S (2002) Dynamic portfolio selection of NPD programs using marginal re-turns. Manage Sci 48(10):1227–1241
Lorie JH, Savage LJ (1955) Three problems in rationing capital. J Business 28(4):229–239
Lourenço JC, Bana e Costa C, Morton A (2011) PROBE: a multicriteria decision support system for portfolio robustness evaluation (revised version). LSE Operational Research Group Working Paper Series, LSEOR 09.108. LSE, London
Lourenço JC, Bana e Costa C, Morton A (2008) Software packages for multi-criteria resource allocation. In: Proceedings of the international management conference, Estoril, Portugal
Markowitz HM (1952) Portfolio selection. J Finance 7(1):77–91
Matheson D, Matheson JE (1998) The Smart Organization: creating value through strategic R&D. Harvard Business School Press, Boston
Mintzberg H (1994) The rise and fall of strategic planning: reconceiving the roles for planning, plans, planners. Prentice-Hall, Glasgow
Montibeller G (2007) Action-researching MCDA interventions. In: Shaw D (ed), Keynote Papers, 49th British Operational Research Conference (OR 49), 4–6 Sep, University of Edinburgh. The OR Society, Birmingham
Morton A (2010) On the choice of baselines in portfolio decision analysis. LSE Management Science Group working paper, LSEOR10.128. LSE, London
Morton A, Bird D, Jones A, White M (2011) Decision conferencing for science prioritisation in the UK public sector: a dual case study. J Oper Res Soc 62:50–59
Mottley CM, Newton RD (1959) The selection of projects for industrial research. Oper Res 7(6):740–751
Owen DL (1984) Selecting projects to obtain a balanced research portfolio. In: Howard RA, Matheson JE (eds) Readings on the principles and applications of decision analysis. Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park
Peerenboom JP, Buehring WA, Joseph TW (1989) Selecting a portfolio of environmental programs for a synthetic fuels facility. Oper Res 37(5):689–699
Pennypacker J, Retna S (eds) (2009) Project portfolio management: a view from the trenches. Wiley, New York
Phillips LD (1984) A theory of requisite decision models. Acta Psychol 56(1–3):29–48
Phillips LD, Bana e Costa CA (2007) Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing. Ann Oper Res 154(1):51–68
Phillips LD, Phillips MC (1993) Facilitated work groups: theory and practice. J Oper Res Soc 44(3):533–549
Pratt JW, Raiffa H, Schlaifer R (1965) Introduction to statistical decision theory. McGraw-Hill, New York
Raiffa H (1968) Decision analysis. Addison-Wesley, Reading
Raiffa H, Schlaifer R (1961) Applied statistical decision theory. Harvard Business School, Boston
Ramsey FP (1978) Truth and probability. In: Mellor DH (ed) Foundations: essays in philosophy, logic, mathematics and economics. Routledge & Kegan Paul, London
Rios Insua D, Kersten GE, Rios J, Grima C (2008) Towards decision support for participatory democracy. In: Burstein F, Holsapple CW (eds) Handbook on decision support systems 2. Springer, Berlin, pp 651–685
Rogers EM (2005) Diffusion of INNOVATIONS (5th edn). Free Press, New York
Roussel PA, Saad KN, Erickson TJ (1991) Third generation R&D: managing the link to corporate strategy. Harvard Business School Press, Boston
Roy B (1985) Méthodologie multicritère d’aide à la décision. Economica, Paris
Roy B (1991) The outranking approach and the foundations of ELECTRE methods. Theory Decis 31:49–73
Ruusunen J, Hämäläinen RP (1989) Project selection by an integrated decision aid. In: Golden BL, Wasil EA, Harker PT (eds) The analytic hierarchy process: applications and studies. Springer, New York, pp 101–121
Rzasa P, Faulkner TW, Sousa NL (1990) Analyzing R&D portfolios at Eastman Kodak. Res Technol Manage 33:27–32
Saaty TL (2005) The analytic hierarchy and analytic network processes for the measurement of intangible criteria and for decision-making. In: Figueira J, Greco S, Ehrgott M (eds) Multiple criteria decision analysis: state of the art surveys. Kluwer, Boston, pp 345–408
Salo A, Hämäläinen RP (1997) On the measurement of preferences in the analytic hierarchy process. J Multi-Criteria Decis Anal 6(6):309–319
Salo A, Hämäläinen RP (2010) Multicriteria decision analysis in group decision processes. In: Kilgour DM, Eden C (eds) Handbook of group decision and negotiation. Springer, New York, pp 269–283
Savage LJ (1954) The foundations of statistics. Wiley, New York
Schilling M, Oeser N, Schaub C (2007) How effective are decision analyses? Assessing decision process and group alignment effects. Decis Anal 4(4):227–242
Schwartz SL, Vertinsky I (1977) Multi-attribute investment decisions: a study of R&D project selection. Manage Sci 42(3):285–301
Shane SA, Ulrich KT (2004) Technological innovation, product development, and enterpreneurship in management science. Manage Sci 50(2):133–144
Sharpe WF (1964) Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. J Finance 19:425–442
Sharpe P, Keelin T (1998) How SmithKline Beecham makes better resource-allocation decisions. Harvard Business Rev 76(2):45–46
Skaf MA (1999) Portfolio management in an upstream oil and gas organization. Interfaces 29(6):84–104
Souder WE (1973) Analytical effectiveness of mathematical models for R&D project selection. Manage Sci 19(8):907–923
Spetzler CS (2007) Building decision competency in organizations. In: Edwards W, Miles RF, von Winterfeldt D (eds) Advances in decision analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Stummer C, Heidenberger K (2003) Interactive R&D portfolio analysis with project interdependencies and time profiles of multiple objectives. IEEE Trans Eng Manage 50:175–183
Stummer C, Kiesling E, Gutjahr WJ (2009) A multicriteria decision support systems for competence-driven project portfolio selection. Int J Inform Technol Decis Making 8(2):379–401
Tversky A, Kahneman D (1974) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185:1124–1131
Vilkkumaa E, Salo A, Liesiö J (forthcoming) Multicriteria portfolio modeling for the development of shared action agendas. Group Decis Negot
von Neumann J, Morgenstern O (1947) Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press, Princeton
von Winterfeldt D, Edwards W (1986) Decision analysis and behavioral research. CUP, Cambridge
Walls MR, Morahan GT, Dyer SD (1995) Decision analysis of exploration opportunities in the onshore US at Phillips petroleum company. Interfaces 25(6):39–56
Weingartner HM (1966) Capital budgeting of interrelated projects: survey and synthesis. Manage Sci 12(7):485–516
Weingartner HN (1967) Mathematical programming and the analysis of capital budgeting problems. Markham, Chicago
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Salo, A., Keisler, J., Morton, A. (2011). An Invitation to Portfolio Decision Analysis. In: Salo, A., Keisler, J., Morton, A. (eds) Portfolio Decision Analysis. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, vol 162. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9943-6_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9943-6_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, New York, NY
Print ISBN: 978-1-4419-9942-9
Online ISBN: 978-1-4419-9943-6
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsBusiness and Management (R0)