Abstract
Futurology is the technique of using imagination about the future. It promotes Creative Thinking. Futurology has not to be confused with wishful thinking, in which one hopes that his own wishes will come true. The problem of futurology is that it does not take enough into consideration the actual situation. At that moment the division line is difficult to draw where wishful thinking begins.
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Notes Part 2 Chapter 1
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At this stage, brainstonning is advisable.
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Many of these applications are not communicated to the outside world by the enterprises. The first application known is that of T.R.W. in the U. S. See: H. Q. North and D.L. Pyke, Probes of the technological future. The Corporate planner should pursue new means of technological forecasting to ensure his company’s share in tomorrow’s markets” Harvard Business Review, May–June 1969, 68–82. For Western Europe, we cite the example of the multinational photographic group Agfa-Gevaert. See: D. Oates, Focus on the Future at Agfa-Gevaert, European photographic group aims to clarify its objectives, International Management, August 1972, 23–26.
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Brauers developed the approach of the Nominal Group Technique, which is explained here (W. K. Brauers, Nominal Methods in Group Multiple Decision Making, Research Paper No3, Institute for Developing Countries, University of Antwerp, RUCA, Antwerpen, 1987). Hie Nominal Group Technique was first elaborated at the University of Wisconsin by Delbecq and Van De Ven: A.RVan De Ven, A.L.Delbecq, Nominal versus Interacting Group Processes for Committee Decision Making Effectiveness, Academy of Management Journal, vol. 14, No2, June 1971,203 and fol. A. L. Delbecq, A. H. Van De Ven, D. H. Gustafson. Group Techniques for Program Planning: A Guide to Nominal Group and Delphi Processes, Scott, Foresman and Co, Glenview (Ill.) 1975. S. L.Gill, A. L. Delbecq and T. J. Snodgrass, three chapters on Program Planning, Nominal Group Technique and Value Engineering, in Shirley Jones (Ed.), Group Process Planning and Problem Solving Methods, N.Y., John Wiley and Sons, 1981. A L. Delbecq, “The Nominal Group as a Technique for Understanding the Qualitative Dimension of Client Needs,” in Assessing Health and Human Service Needs, RABell, editor, N. Y., Human Services Press, 1983, 210–218. AL. Delbecq, A. Van de Ven and D.Gustafson, Group Techniques for Program Planning, 2nd edition, Greenbriar Press, Madison, Wisconsin, 1986.
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Brauers, W.K. (2004). Creative and Prospective Thinking. In: Optimization Methods for a Stakeholder Society. Nonconvex Optimization and Its Applications, vol 73. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-9178-2_4
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