Abstract
We argue that the causal interactions among the current account and budget balances and the real interest rate can provide more information about the effective degree of financial openness of an economy than simple saving-investment correlations. Cointegration tests reveal a variety of linkages between the variables across countries. A number of economies (Canada, Gelmany, Netherlands, and increasingly the UK) appear to be small and open, while Japan and the USA are effectively closed. The “twin deficits” and “current account targeting” hypotheses receive some support in the short run.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Abell, J., (1990), Twin deficits during the 1980s: An empirical investigation, Journal of Macroeconomics, 12,81–96.
Ahmed, S. and J. H. Rogers (1995), Government budget deficits and trade deficits: Are present value constraints satisfied in long-run data? Journal of Monetary Economics, 36, 351–74.
Alyousha, A. and C. Tsoukis (2000), A re-examination of savings-investment relationships: Cointegration, causality, and international capital mobility, Hull Economics Research Papers., No. 271, July.
Argimon, J. and J. Roldan (1994), Saving, Investment and International Capital Mobility in EC Countries, European Economic Review, 38, 59–67.
Baxter, M. and M. Crucini (1993), Explaining Saving-Investment Correlations, American Economic Review, 83(3), 416–35.
Coakley, J, F. Kulasi and R. Smith (1996), Current Account Solvency and the Saving-Investment Puzzle, Economic Journal, 106,620–7.
Coakley, J, F. Kulasi and R. Smith (1998), The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle and Capital Mobility: A Review, International Journal of Finance and Economics, 3, 169–88.
Dawyer, G.P. (1985), Federal Deficits, Interest Rates and Monetary Policy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 17, 655–81.
Feldstein, M. and P. Bacchetta (1991), National Saving and International Investment, in B. D. Bernheim and J. B. Shoven (eds.), National Saving and Economic Performance, Chicago, Chicago UP, 201–20.
Feldstein, M. and C. Horioka (1980), Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows, Economic Journal, 90, June, 314–29.
Friedman, B., (2000), What have we learned from the Reagan deficits and their disappearance?, NBER Working Paper No. 7647.
Ghosh, A. (1995), International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialized Countries: Too Little or Too Much? Economic Journal, 105, 107–28.
Grilli, V. and G.M. Milesi-Ferretti (1995), Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls, IMF Staff Papers, 42(3), 517–51.
Johansen, S. (1988): Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231–54.
Johansen, S. (1991): Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models, Econometrica, 59, 1551–80.
Jones, R. and P. Kenen (eds.), (1985), Handbook of International Economics Vol. II, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
Kasa, K. (1994), Finite Horizons and the Twin Deficits, Federal Reserve Bank of San Fransisco Economic Review, 3, 19–28.
Kearney, C. and M. Monadjemi (1990), Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits, Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(2), 197–219.
Kenen P., (ed.), (1995), Understanding Interdependence, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Leiderman, L. and A. Razin (eds.), (1994), Capital Mobility: The Impact on Consumption, Investment and Growth, Cambridge: CUP.
Levy, D. (1995), Investment-Saving Co-movement Under Endogenous Fiscal Policy,” Open Economies Review, 6,3 (July), 237–254.
Levy, D. (2000), Investment-Saving Co-movement and Capital Mobility: Evidence trom Century Long U.S. Time Series,” Review of Economic Dynamics, 3,1 (January), 100–136.
Marston, R.C. (1985), Stabilization Policy in Open Economies, in Jones and Kenen (eds.).
Mathieson, D. J. and L. Rojas-Suarez (1994), Liberalisation of the Current Account: Experiences and Issues, in Leiderman and Razin (19
Obstfeld, M. (1986), Capital Mobility in the World Economy: Theory and Measurement, Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 24 (Spring), 55–104.
Obstfeld, M. (1995), International Capital Mobility in the 1990s, in P. Kenen (1995), 201–61.
Obstfeld, M. and K. Rogoff (1996): The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account, Ch. 34 in G. Grossman and K. Rogoff (eds.), (1996), Handbook of International Economics Vol. III, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Obstfeld, M. and A. Taylor (1997), The Great Depression as a Watershed: International Capital Mobility over the Long Run, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 1633.
Razin A (1995), The Dynamic-Optimizing Approach to the Current Account: Theory and Evidence, in P. Kenen (1995).
Sachsida, A and M. Caetano (2000), The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited, Economics Letters 68, 85–88.
Summers L.H. (1988), Tax Policy and International Competitiveness, in J. Frenkel (ed.): International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, Chicago, Chicago UP, 349–75.
Taylor, AM. (1997), International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship, NBER Working Paper No. 5743.
Toda, H. and P. Phillips (1994), Vector Autoregression and Causality, Econometric Reviews, 13,259–85.
Trehan, B. and C.E. Walsh (1991), Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 23,2 (May), 206–23.
Tsoukis, C. and A. Alyousha (2001), The Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle, Saving-Investment Causality and International Financial Market Integration, Journal of Economic Integration, 16,2 (June), 262–77.
Urbain, J.-P. (1992), On Weak Exogeneity in Error Correction Models, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 187–207.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2004 Springer Science+Business Media New York
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Fountas, S., Tsoukis, C. (2004). Twin Deficits, Real Interest Rates, and International Capital Mobility. In: Tsoukis, C., Agiomirgianakis, G.M., Biswas, T. (eds) Aspects of Globalisation. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8881-2_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-8881-2_5
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4613-4703-3
Online ISBN: 978-1-4419-8881-2
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive