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Competitive Balance in the NFL

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The Economics of the National Football League

Part of the book series: Sports Economics, Management and Policy ((SEMP,volume 2))

Abstract

The epigram centers on the eternal question of competitive balance: How likely is it that early-season fan hopes for postseason play are realized? The epigram also points out how confusing a discussion of balance can become; how can the NFL go from “clearly stratified” to a tribute to balance in 2 years? In this chapter, I pursue an assessment of competitive balance in the NFL in order to shed light on this ­eternal question. Such an assessment also clarifies where and when balance in the NFL became an issue, if it ever was.

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References

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA

    Rodney Fort

Authors
  1. Rodney Fort
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rodney Fort .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. , Department of Economics, St. Norbert College, 100 Grant Street, De Pere, 54115-2009, USA

    Kevin G. Quinn

Appendices

Appendix 1: NFL RSD, 1922–2010

Year

ASD

N

ISD

RSD

Year

ASD

N

ISD

RSD

1922

0.30

9

0.17

1.82

1960

0.23

12

0.14

1.57

1923

0.30

8

0.18

1.71

1961

0.21

14

0.13

1.58

1924

0.31

10

0.16

1.95

1962

0.25

14

0.13

1.90

1925

0.31

10

0.16

1.97

1963

0.25

14

0.13

1.88

1926

0.29

12

0.14

2.00

1964

0.21

14

0.13

1.54

1927

0.29

11

0.15

1.93

1965

0.19

14

0.13

1.41

1928

0.30

12

0.14

2.09

1966

0.21

14

0.13

1.57

1929

0.31

13

0.14

2.24

1967

0.23

14

0.13

1.73

Average

   

1.96

1968

0.25

14

0.13

1.85

1930

0.24

12

0.14

1.68

1969

0.25

14

0.13

1.84

1931

0.25

12

0.14

1.75

Average

   

1.69

1932

0.26

12

0.14

1.83

1970

0.22

14

0.13

1.61

1933

0.22

11

0.15

1.45

1971

0.19

14

0.13

1.46

1934

0.27

11

0.15

1.79

1972

0.23

14

0.13

1.70

1935

0.22

12

0.14

1.49

1973

0.23

14

0.13

1.74

1936

0.26

12

0.14

1.81

1974

0.20

14

0.13

1.48

1937

0.26

11

0.15

1.70

1975

0.25

14

0.13

1.88

1938

0.21

11

0.15

1.42

1976

0.25

14

0.13

1.88

1939

0.32

11

0.15

2.10

1977

0.21

16

0.13

1.70

Average

   

1.70

1978

0.17

16

0.13

1.38

1940

0.25

11

0.15

1.65

1979

0.17

16

0.13

1.39

1941

0.30

11

0.15

1.99

Average

   

1.62

1942

0.33

11

0.15

2.19

1980

0.19

16

0.13

1.49

1943

0.28

10

0.16

1.80

1981

0.17

16

0.13

1.39

1944

0.36

10

0.16

2.29

1982

0.21

9

0.17

1.28

1945

0.28

10

0.16

1.75

1983

0.17

16

0.13

1.40

1946

0.21

11

0.15

1.40

1984

0.21

16

0.13

1.68

1947

0.20

12

0.14

1.36

1985

0.21

16

0.13

1.64

1948

0.28

12

0.14

1.91

1986

0.21

16

0.13

1.67

1949

0.27

16

0.13

2.16

1987

0.17

15

0.13

1.35

Average

   

1.85

1988

0.17

16

0.13

1.35

1950

0.25

12

0.14

1.70

1989

0.18

16

0.13

1.44

1951

0.25

12

0.14

1.73

Average

   

1.47

1952

0.19

12

0.14

1.35

1990

0.20

16

0.13

1.62

1953

0.28

12

0.14

1.94

1991

0.22

16

0.13

1.74

1954

0.21

12

0.14

1.49

1992

0.21

16

0.13

1.65

1955

0.18

12

0.14

1.27

1993

0.16

16

0.13

1.28

1956

0.18

12

0.14

1.24

1994

0.18

16

0.13

1.40

1957

0.17

12

0.14

1.20

1995

0.15

16

0.13

1.22

1958

0.25

12

0.14

1.71

1996

0.18

16

0.13

1.47

1959

0.23

12

0.14

1.57

1997

0.18

16

0.13

1.46

Average

   

1.52

1998

0.21

16

0.13

1.71

     

1999

0.19

16

0.13

1.49

     

Average

   

1.51

     

2000

0.20

16

0.13

1.58

     

2001

0.20

16

0.13

1.63

     

2002

0.17

16

0.13

1.32

     

2003

0.19

16

0.13

1.54

     

2004

0.19

16

0.13

1.54

     

2005

0.21

16

0.13

1.69

     

2006

0.18

16

0.13

1.45

     

2007

0.21

16

0.13

1.66

     

2008

0.21

16

0.13

1.66

     

2009

0.20

16

0.13

1.61

     

Average

   

1.57

     

2010

0.19

16

0.13

1.50

Source: Rod’s Sports Data, http://www.rodneyfort.com

Appendix 2: NFL Conference Playoff Teams, 1970–2010

Year

Teams

Last appearance

Year

Teams

Last appearance

1970

BalColtsb

1968

1976

Mina

1974

Dala

1967

Oakb

1975

Oak

1969

LARams

1975

SF

First time

Pit

1975

Average years W/O

6.5

Average years W/O

1.25

New teams

3

New teams

1

1971

Dalb

1970

1977

Dalb

1973

Miaa

First time

Dena

First time

SF

1970

Min

1976

BalColts

1970

Oak

1976

Average years W/O

2

Average years W/O

5.75

New teams

1

New teams

2

1972

Miab

1971

1978

Dala

1977

Wasa

1945

Pitb

1976

Pit

First time

LARams

1976

Dal

1971

HouOilers

1967

Average years W/O

17

Average years W/O

4

New teams

2

New teams

3

1973

Miab

1972

1979

Pitb

1978

Mina

1969

LARamsa

1978

Oak

1970

HouOilers

1978

Dal

1972

TB

First time

Average years W/O

2.25

Average years W/O

1.5

New teams

2

New teams

1

1974

Mina

1973

1980

Phila

1960

Pitb

1972

Oakb

1977

LARams

1955

Dal

1978

Oak

1973

SD

1965

Average years W/O

5.75

Average years W/O

10

New teams

2

New teams

4

1975

Dala

1973

1981

Cina

First time

Pitb

1974

SFb

1971

LARams

1974

SD

1980

Oak

1974

Dal

1980

Average years W/O

1.25

Average years W/O

6.25

New teams

1

New teams

2

1982

Wasb

1972

1988

Cina

1981

Miaa

1972

SFb

1984

Dal

1980

Buf

1966

NYJ

1969

Chi

1985

Average years W/O

8.75

Average years W/O

9

New teams

3

New teams

4

1983

LARaidersb

First time

1989

Dena

1987

Wasa

1982

SFb

1988

Sea

First time

Cle

1987

SF

1981

LARams

1985

Average years W/O

2.75

Average years W/O

2.25

New teams

3

New teams

3

1984

Miaa

1982

1990

Bufa

1988

SFb

1983

NYGb

1986

Pit

1979

LARaiders

First time

Chi

1963

SF

1989

Average years W/O

7.25

Average years W/O

3.75

New teams

3

New teams

3

1985

Chib

1984

1991

Bufa

1990

NEa

1963

Wasb

1987

LARams

1979

Den

1989

Mia

1982

Det

1957

Average years W/O

8

Average years W/O

10.25

New teams

2

New teams

3

1986

Dena

1977

1992

Dalb

1982

NYGb

1963

Bufa

1991

Cle

1969

SF

1990

Was

1982

Mia

1985

Average years W/O

13.25

Average years W/O

5

New teams

4

New teams

3

1987

Dena

1986

1993

Dalb

1992

Wasb

1986

Bufa

1992

Cle

1986

SF

1992

Min

1977

KC

1969

Average years W/O

3.25

Average years W/O

6.75

New teams

1

New teams

1

1994

SDa

1981

2000

NYGa

1990

SFb

1993

BalRavensb

First time

Pit

1984

Min

1998

Dal

1993

Oak

1980

Average years W/O

6.25

Average years W/O

9

New teams

2

New teams

4

1995

Pita

1994

2001

NEb

1996

Dalb

1994

StLRamsa

1999

Ind

First time

Pit

1997

GB

1967

Phil

1980

Average years W/O

10.25

Average years W/O

8

New teams

2

New teams

4

1996

GBb

1995

2002

Oaka

2000

NEa

1985

TBb

1999

Carol

First time

Ten

1999

Jax

First time

Phil

2001

Average years W/O

3.5

Average years W/O

2.25

New teams

3

New teams

3

1997

GBa

1996

2003

NEb

2001

Denb

1991

Carola

1996

SF

1994

Ind

1995

Pit

1995

Phil

2002

Average years W/O

3

Average years W/O

4.5

New teams

3

New teams

3

1998

Denb

1997

2004

NEb

2003

Atla

First time

Phila

2003

NYJ

1982

Pit

2001

Min

1987

Atl

1998

Average years W/O

15

Average years W/O

2.75

New teams

3

New teams

2

1999

StLRamsb

First time

2005

Seaa

1983

Tena

First time

Pitb

2004

TB

1979

Carol

2003

Jax

1996

Den

1998

Average years W/O

7.25

Average years W/O

8

New teams

4

New teams

3

2006

Chia

1988

   

Indb

2003

   

NO

First time

   

NE

2004

   

Average years W/O

15.5

   

New teams

4

   

2007

NEa

2006

   

NYGb

2000

   

SD

1994

   

GB

1997

   

Average years W/O

7.75

   

New teams

3

   

2008

Pitb

2005

   

Ariza

First time

   

BalRavens

2000

   

Phil

2004

   

Average years W/O

8.75

   

New teams

4

   

2009

NOb

2006

   

Inda

2006

   

Min

2000

   

NYJ

1998

   

Average years W/O

6.5

   

New teams

4

   

2010

Pita

2008

   

GBb

2007

   

NYJ

2009

   

Chi

2006

   

Average years W/O

2.5

   

New teams

3

   

Source: Data from http://pro-football-reference.com

Note: SF began play in 1950. Miami entered the AFL in 1966. Pittsburgh appears for the first time in 1933 as the Pirates, Steelers in 1940. Denver was an original AFL team in 1960. TB expansion team 1976 along with Sea. Cin AFL expansion team 1968. LARaiders began play in 1982. Indianapolis began play in 1984. Atlanta began play in 1966. St. Louis Rams began play in 1995. Tennessee began play in 1997. Baltimore Ravens began play in 1996. Raiders moved to LA in 1982 and back to Oakland in 1995. New Orleand began play in 1967. Phoenix/Arizona Cardinals began play in 1988.

Houston Texans are the only modern NFL team to not make the playoffs. They play in 2002 and have gone the entire 9 years without an appearance.

aSuper Bowl loser.

bSuper Bowl winner.

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Fort, R. (2012). Competitive Balance in the NFL. In: Quinn, K. (eds) The Economics of the National Football League. Sports Economics, Management and Policy, vol 2. Springer, New York, NY. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-6290-4_12

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