Introduction: Judgment and Computation
Regardless of political views, the consensus of observers is that international interventions in Afghanistan (beginning in 2001) and Iraq (beginning in 2003) could have been planned better. In particular, objective observers suggest that the undesired effects of the plans could have been anticipated more accurately, and that, in turn, many of the resultant difficulties and tragedies could have been avoided. However, is this true? Do there exist rigorous and practical techniques for anticipating the effects of complex interventions, and for planning in accordance with such anticipations? The last few years have, in fact, seen the emergence of quantitative, computational tools and techniques that attempt to answer this question. Inspired by such efforts, this book aims to offer the reader a broad and practical introduction to computational approaches for anticipating the effects of interventions.
KeywordsExpert Judgment Force Unit Unanticipated Effect Human Player International Intervention
- Abdollahian, M., Baranick, M., Efird, B. & Kugler, J. (2006). Senturion. A Predictive Political Simulation Model. Center for Technology and National Security Policy National Defense University. http://www.ndu.edu/ctnsp/Def_Tech/DTP%2032%20Senturion.pdf.
- Colaizzi, J. (2005). Joint Urban Warrior 05 Provides Catalyst for Coordination in Urban Environments. http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2005/pa052505.htm.
- Cuny, F. C. & Hill, R. B. (1999). Famine, Conflict and Response: a Basic Guide. West Hartford, Connecticut: Kumarian Press.Google Scholar
- Ghani, A. & Lockhart, C. (2008). Fixing Failed States. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- Gilad, B. & Stitzer, T. (2008). Business War Games: How Large, Small, and New Companies Can Vastly Improve Their Strategies and Outmaneuver the Competition. Franklin Lakes, NJ: Career Press.Google Scholar
- Graham-Brown, S. (1999). Sanctioning Saddam: The Politics of Intervention in Iraq. London: I.B. Tauris.Google Scholar
- Hammond, K. R., Hamm, R. M., Grassia, J. & Pearson, T. (1987). Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytic cognition in expert judgment. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC, 17(5), 753–770.Google Scholar
- Hartley, D. (2008). DIME/PMESII Tools: Past, Present and Future, Workshop on Analyzing the Impact of Emerging Societies on National Security. Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, 14–18 April 2008. http://www.mors.org/events/08es.aspx.
- HSCB Newsletter (2009). http://www.dod.mil/ddre/doc/Spring2009_HSCB_Newsletter_Issue1.pdf.
- JFCOM (2004). Operational Net Assessment: a Concept Paper for Joint Experimentation. Norfolk, VA: US Joint Forces Command.Google Scholar
- Kagan, F. W. (2006). Choosing Victory: A Plan for Success in Iraq. A report by the American Enterprise Institute. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/ChoosingVictory.pdf.
- Kott, A. & Corpac, P. S. (2007). COMPOEX Technology to Assist Leaders in Planning and Executing Campaigns in Complex Operational Environments, 12th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Newport, Rhode Island, June 19–21.Google Scholar
- Marlin, B. (2009). Ascertaining Validity in the Abstract Realm of PMESII Simulation Models: an Analysis of the Peace Support Operations Model (PSOM). Masters Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA.Google Scholar
- Messer, K. (2009). The Africa Study. Presented at the HSCB Focus 2010 Conference, August 5–7, 2009, Chantilly, VA.Google Scholar
- Office of the Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization, Post-Conflict Reconstruction Essential tasks, United States Department of State (2005). http://www.crs.state.gov/index.cfm?fuseaction=public.display&id=10234c2e-a5fc-4333-bd82-037d1d42b725.
- Perito, R. M. (2007). Guide for Participants in Peace, Stability, and Relief Operations. Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
- Petraeus, D. H. (2007). Report to Congress on the Situation in Iraq. Testimony Presented Before the House Subcommittee on 11 September 2007. http://www.dtic.mil/cgibin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA473579&Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf.
- Sentia Group (2008). Implications of a U.S. Drawdown in Iraq. http://www.sentiagroup.com/pdf/SentiaInsightMonthly-USDrawdownInIraq-July2008.pdf.
- Siegel, R. (2007). Scanning History for Analogies to Iraq War, Transcript of NPR Radio Broadcast, August 22, 2007. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=13872684.
- Simon, S. (2008). The price of the surge. Foreign Affairs, 87(3), 57–76.Google Scholar
- Taylor, J. B. (2007). Global Financial Warriors: The Untold Story of International Finance in the Post-9/11 World. New York, NY: W.W. Norton & Co.Google Scholar
- Tyrell, H. G. (1911). History of Bridge Engineering. Chicago: The G.B. Williams Co.Google Scholar
- US Army (2008). Field Manual FM 3-07, Stability Operations. Headquarters Department of the Army. http://usacac.army.mil/CAC2/Repository/FM307/FM3-07.pdf.
- Walters, E. (2008). Problems and Prospects of Defense COIN Wargaming. Small Wars Journal. http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2008/04/problems-and-prospects-of-defe-1/.
- Waltz, E. (2008). Situation Analysis and Collaborative Planning for Complex Operations, 13th ICCRTS. Bellevue, WA, June 17–19.Google Scholar
- Woodward, B. (2008). The War Within: a Secret White House History 2006–2008. New York, NY: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar