Abstract
My object in this article is to discuss some things that have been wrong with causal explanations of Indonesian forest fires in the past and some ways in which they might be made better as explanations and, concomitantly, more useful for fire management. I will give examples not only of problematic explanations but also of fire-research and fire-management recommendations and programs made problematic by faulty or unsubstantiated causal assumptions or explanations. My focus is on causes of fires in either primary or selectively logged but still presumably biodiversity-rich tropical moist Indonesian forests for which there remains some hope of conservation. I will draw on both my literature searches on the fires and their explanations and, to a more limited extent, the fieldwork I conducted on these subjects in the province of East Kalimantan in collaboration with Ahmad Sahur of South Sulawesi’s Hasanuddin University in 1998, 2000, and 2001.
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Notes
- 1.
This convention, which I do not regard as analytically useful, may reflect an everyday view of explanation whereby particular triggering events are favored over particular conditions, or changes in conditions, as causes and explanatory factors even if, as discussed later, counterfactual analysis indicates that occurrence of the explanandum events in question (e.g., forest fires) depends more on the particular conditions than on particular triggers. The methodological and semantic issues raised here are discussed in a general but pragmatic way by Hart and Honore (1985, pp. 71-73) and Miller (1987, pp. 60-61). In both works, the example of fires as explanandum events is cited and counterfactual reasoning is used to support arguments in favor of sometimes including conditions as causes in our explanations.
- 2.
Hotspots are “High Temperature Events” (HTE) detected by NOAA satellites and indicating fire activity. Although fire detection by such means is far from foolproof (Flasse and Ceccato 1996), hotspot data can still be used to identify significant spatial patterns in fire occurrence and spread. For a fuller description of the East Kalimantan hotspot data used in their analysis, see Steenis and Fogarty (2001, p. 5).
- 3.
Forest rangers in one East Kalimantan nature reserve did conduct motorcycle patrols no more than 6-7 km from their guard post, but they simply noted where fires had occurred and, on the basis of quick visual inspection, assigned them to a preconceived category of causes, like unextinguished cigarette butts (Vayda 1999, p. 30). Such cursory exercises do not constitute bona fide forensic fire-scene investigations.
- 4.
For comparison of “forward” and “backward” causal inquiry, see Einhorn and Hogarth 1987.
- 5.
This “Integrated Forest Fire Management Project” (IFFM) was implemented jointly by GTZ and various Indonesian government agencies and services.
- 6.
The hotspot database was built by Anja Hoffmann and Lenny Christy of the GTZ-IFFM project. January 6 was the day on which the 1998 fires started in East Kalimantan.
- 7.
Neither I nor any of the numerous fire specialists I have consulted have succeeded in finding any reliable studies or good data showing cigarette butts as ignition sources for actual forest fires in Indonesia or anywhere else. According to one authority (DeHaan 2002, p. 139, 527), cigarettes have “been blamed in many more instances than they should” as sources of ignition even for fires in buildings. However, an experiment conducted in 1964 (Ford 1995, pp. 105-106, 166) and another conducted in response to my inquiries in 2004 (Gönner, pers. commun. [2004]) indicated that unextinguished cigarettes may ignite wildland fires if certain conditions are met, e.g., if relative humidity is below 18-22% and if at least 1/3 of the smoldering cigarette’s surface is in direct contact with fine fuels.
- 8.
See Vayda 2000, for a more detailed account of speculative forest-clearing and the Kelompok Tani.
- 9.
For a historical parallel, consider the aftermath of the Great Fire of 1871 in Michigan: Ill-conceived remedies focused on fire prevention in villages and towns rather than in the surrounding timberlands where the fire had actually originated, having been caused by “unsafe lumbering practices” (Kreger 1998).
- 10.
In the finer-grained research being recommended here, we would still be trying to explain extensive forest fires, albeit, in effect, regarding as our immediate explananda such forest-fire “sub-events” as certain changes in fire’s direction, speed, or height and some re-ignitions (cf. Gruner 1969, pp. 148-150 on “events” and “sub-events” in historical analyses). Illuminating observations on the progression from correlation to causation by moving to finer-grained research to account for lung cancer, duodenal ulcers, and other diseases may be found in Thagard (2000, p. 256 ff). My arguments here are intended as an endorsement of finer-grained research only when it may be expected to yield theoretically or practically significant answers to questions about causes (cf. Vayda 1996, p. 17 and note 9 and Vayda 2009, pp. 14-15). My objection to detailed ignition studies in the absence of studies more or less systematically connecting the ignitions to forest fires is, in effect, arguing against according high priority to finer-grained research which is, by itself, of not much use for explaining forest fires.
- 11.
A current example is “social neuroscience” (Cacioppo and Berntson 2004; Harmon-Jones and Winkielman 2007), which has developed dramatically since elimination of the old boundary between studies and explanations of social behavior and studies and explanations of brain mechanisms (cf. Azar 2002; Ochsner and Lieberman 2001).
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Vayda, A.P. (2010). Explaining Indonesian Forest Fires: Both Ends of the Firestick. In: Bates, D., Tucker, J. (eds) Human Ecology. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-5701-6_2
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