An attempt was made to estimate an increase of particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and total organic carbon (TOC) delivery by the Russian Arctic rivers to the Arctic Ocean by 2100. The calculations are based on the previously published estimations of an increase of river water discharge (Peterson et al. 2002) and of suspended matter discharge (Gordeev 2006) to the end of 21st century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007) predicts the global surface air temperature increase in a range between 1.4° and 5.8°C by 2100. The climate warming will result in the thawing of the multi-annual permafrost in Siberia. The enriched by organic carbon frozen peatlands will be the very effective source of organics to the rivers and streams. Frey and Smith (2005) predict an increase of DOC concentration in the rivers of West Siberia up to 400% due to this process.
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Gordeev, V.V., Kravchishina, M.D. (2009). River flux of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) to the Arctic Ocean: what are the consequences of the global changes?. In: Nihoul, J.C.J., Kostianoy, A.G. (eds) Influence of Climate Change on the Changing Arctic and Sub-Arctic Conditions. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9460-6_11
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