Stochastic Simulation As An Instrument For Technological Systems Environmental Performance

The ecological footprint of rapidly growing technological systems becomes excessively high compared to the limited carrying capacity of the global eco-system. Decoupling industrial output from energy consumption challenges the post-Brundtland society to shift towards a new kind of technological progress. Stochastic simulation could serve as a powerful instrument for this by helping to improve overall performance through design and management of technological systems, achieving win—win results for the common benefits of entrepreneurs and the environment, and mitigating the ecological footprint of technological systems.

The levels of power consumption of the systems in question as well as their energy intensity of output are quite important indicators of overall performance. Using stochastic simulation we can reproduce all the details of the systems in question, including functioning, optimizing operations management, and eliminating redundant losses of operating time and therefore losses of energy and material flows.

To describe the real processes involved in the running of technological systems we use stochastic discreet models (Shannon, 1973; Carroll, 1985; Taha, 1997). The duration of operations is depicted by the Erlangian model, which describes a broad continuum of cases: from pure stochastic (Erlangian parameter or order of distribution k = 1) to deterministic (k = ∞). Using data about a mean operations duration and order of Erlangian distribution k collected from real transfer lines, we developed stochastic discreet models, which quite precisely describe real processes (accordingly to chi-square criteria) and, applying the method of inverse functions (Taha, 1997), we used these models to simulate processes of technological systems functioning with the aim of investigating and optimising their management and eliminating redundant time and energy losses (Dudyuk and Zahvoyska, 2003). Relevant examples introduced in the paper clearly illustrate the eco-efficiency of technological systems redesigning and/or proper management.