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Near-Term Environmental Stressors: Climate Change

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Book cover Environmental Change and Food Security in China

Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 35))

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Abstract

This chapter begins with an introduction to the climate warming phenomenon globally and briefly chronicles China’s involvement in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It treats China’s energy policy, its heavy reliance on coal, low energy efficiency, and development of alternate energy sources. Then, China’s traditional agriculture is discussed, with an emphasis on methane formation through wet rice cultivation. The chapter examines natural climate variability, for example the East Asian monsoon, which influences climate variability, and then presents information on observed climate change effects: changes in temperature, precipitation, surface evaporation, and sunshine duration. A special section examines extreme weather events in recent years, covering floods, drought, heat waves, sea level rises, and typhoons. The last section of the chapter introduces models used by Chinese scientists and preliminary estimates on ways in which climate change will affect production of rice, wheat, maize, and cotton. It also discusses the limitation of climate change models in predicting outcomes for China’s food security.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    See IPCC, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007; also see, National Science and Technology Council, Our Changing Planet: The FY2000 U.S. Global Change Research Program. Washington, DC: A report by the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, 2000; and Sharon L. Spray & Karen L. McGlothlin, Global Climate Change. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2002.

  2. 2.

    Jerry McBeath and Jonathan Rosenberg, Comparative Environmental Politics. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2006, 140.

  3. 3.

    See the Marshall Institute, Scientific Perspectives on the Greenhouse Problem. Washington, DC: George C. Marshall Institute, 1989; S. Fred Singer, ed., Global Climate Change: Natural and Human Influences. New York: Paragon House, 1989; Richard S. Lindzen, “A Skeptic Speaks Out,” EPA Journal, Vol. 16 (March–April, 1990); and for the most influential, Bjorn Lomborg, The Skeptical Environmentalist. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001.

  4. 4.

    M. E. Schlesinger and X. Jiang, “Revised Projection of Future Greenhouse Warming,” Nature, Vol. 350 (1991).

  5. 5.

    A core climate change expert team has been established in China with expertise in economics, the social sciences, energy, meteorology, ecology, environment and other disciplines. More than 1,000 researchers and experts now work in scientific and applied fields of climate change. See Ministry of Science and Technology et al., China’s Scientific & Technological Actions on Climate Change. Beijing, 2007.

  6. 6.

    Hyung-Kwon Jeon and Seong-Suk Yoon, “From International Linkages to Internal Divisions in China: The Political Response to Climate Change Negotiations,” Asian Survey, Vol. XLVI, no. 6 (November/December 2006), 865.

  7. 7.

    New China News Agency, “UN Green Body Praises Fight Against Climate Change,” China Daily, August 3, 2007, 2. Also see Yinan Hu, “Initiative Will Allow for Sustainable Development,” China Daily, June 5, 2007, 4, and National Development and Reform Commission, China’s National Climate Change Programme. Beijing: 2007.

  8. 8.

    Chong Wu, “Action Plan,” China Daily, June 5, 2007, 1.

  9. 9.

    National Climate Change Coordination Committee, China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Publishing Co., 2007. Also see Xiaohua Sun, “China has a ‘Differentiated Responsibility’ to Climate Change,” China Daily, June 9, 2007, 2.

  10. 10.

    Tian Le, “China Still Committed, Hu Tells G8,” China Daily, June 9, 2007, 1. The Chinese delegation made similar remarks at the UN Climate Change Conference meeting in Bali in December 2007. See Xinhua, “Common Interest, Separate Onus ‘Must Still Combat’ Global Warming,” China Daily, December 4, 2007, 2.

  11. 11.

    Jiao Wu, “Nation Attaches Importance to Global Warming,” China Daily, October 22, 2007, 6.

  12. 12.

    Personal interview with official, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, December 18, 2007. See also Central People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China, “News Conference and Related Positions of the Chinese Climate Change Special Delegation.” Beijing: December 20, 2007.

  13. 13.

    Xiaohua Sun, “Now, the Numbers,” China Daily, January 7, 2008, 4; see also Xiaohua Sun, “Joint Effort Urged on Climate Change,” China Daily, December 13, 2007, 4.

  14. 14.

    See Gerald Chan, China’s Compliance in Global Affairs: Trade, Arms Control, Environmental Protection, Human Rights. Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific Publishing Co., 2006, 143–72 and Jerry McBeath and Bo Wang, “China’s Environmental Diplomacy,” American Journal of Chinese Studies, Vol. 15, no. 1 (April 2008), 1–16.

  15. 15.

    Tian Le, “China, Norway in New Climate Pact,” China Daily, March 27, 2007, 3; also see Xiaohua Sun, “New Program Will Take Climate Fight to Provinces,” China Daily, April 18, 2007, 3, and Xaizhou Zhang, “Provinces to Draft Own Green Plans,” China Daily, July 1, 2008, 2.

  16. 16.

    Shanshan Wang, “Rise in Funding Pledged to Tackle Climate Change,” China Daily, April 24, 2008, 1.

  17. 17.

    Edward Wong and Keith Bradsher, “China Joins U.S. in Pledge of Hard Targets on Emissions,” New York Times, November 27, 2009, A18.

  18. 18.

    See Friends of Nature, A Warming China: Thoughts and Actions for the Chinese Civil Society. Beijing, 2007; and WWF, International Climate Change Regime: A Study on Key Issues in China. Beijing: Environmental Science Press, 2007.

  19. 19.

    Reasons for China’s energy inefficiency include very rapid industrialization and urbanization, energy and resource intensive production during the course of economic globalization, and the extensive growth pattern of the national economy. See Qiwen Zhu, “Pattern of Growth ‘Has to Change’,” China Daily, March 19, 2007, 1. Also, energy resources were not priced by the market for most of this period.

  20. 20.

    Xiaohua Sun, “Energy Consumption per Unit of GDP Drops,” China Daily, March 1, 2007, 1.

  21. 21.

    State Council, China’s Energy Conditions and Policies. Beijing: Information Office of the State Council, 2007.

  22. 22.

    Zhongxiang Zhang, The Economics of Energy Policy in China: Implications for Global Climate Change. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 1998, 237.

  23. 23.

    Tatsu Kambara and Christopher Howe, China and the Global Energy Crisis. Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, 2007, 114.

  24. 24.

    Zhang, 1998, 67.

  25. 25.

    Zhang, 1998, 245.

  26. 26.

    Zhang, 1998, 47.

  27. 27.

    Elizabeth Economy, The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China’s Future. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004, 72.

  28. 28.

    Yu Xiao, “Pollution Levels, Energy Use Drop,” China Daily, March 9, 2009, 6.

  29. 29.

    Associated Press, “China Looks to End Pollutors’ Tax Break,” Los Angeles Times, April 28, 2007.

  30. 30.

    Jing Fu and Xiaohua Sun, “Energy Use per Unit of GDP Decreases 3%,” China Daily, November 30, 2007, 1; also see Xiaohua Sun, “Meeting Energy Goal a Tough Job,” China Daily, June 23–24, 2007, 1 and Jing Fu, “Performance Figures ‘Coming Soon’,” China Daily, March 12, 2008, 5.

  31. 31.

    Xiao, “Pollution Levels,” 2009.

  32. 32.

    Quoted in Howard French, “Far from Beijing’s Reach, Officials Bend Energy Rules,” New York Times, November 24, 2007, A24.

  33. 33.

    Xinhua, “To Raise Oil Prices or Not,” China Daily, May 13, 2008, 7.

  34. 34.

    Zhihong Wan, “Gas, Diesel Cost More from Today,” China Daily, June 20, 2008, 1, and also, Keith Bradsher, “China Sharply Raises Energy Prices,” New York Times, June 20, 2008, A7.

  35. 35.

    Increases in coal prices had squeezed power firms tightly, and the electricity rate hike passed these on to consumers. See Zhihong Wan, “Price Hike to Take Heat Off Electricity Rates,” China Daily, August 20, 2008, 2; also see Xu Wang, “Call for Reform of Energy Pricing,” China Daily, August 21, 2008, 18.

  36. 36.

    Zhihong Wen, “Govt Offers Subsidies to Sectors Hit by Price Hikes,” China Daily, June 21–22, 2008, 10.

  37. 37.

    Xiaohua Sun, “Renewable Power Key to ‘Green Growth’: Report,” China Daily, April 26, 2007, 3.

  38. 38.

    Jing Fu, “Potential of Greenhouse Gases Tapped,” China Daily, October 31, 2007, 1.

  39. 39.

    Yinan Hu, “Alternate Power Source Will Help Cut Emissions,” China Daily, June 5, 2007, 4.

  40. 40.

    Xinhua, “Nation World Leader in Renewable Energy, Says Eco-Group,” China Daily, August 4, 2008, 1.

  41. 41.

    Jiao Wu, “Food before Biofuels,” China Daily, May 8, 2008, 3.

  42. 42.

    See Conservation International-China, “Promoting the Use of Natural Regeneration in China to Protect Biodiversity and Mitigate Global Climate Change.” Beijing: CI, 2005; and WWF International, The Asia-Pacific Climate and Energy Programme. Giand, Switzerland: 2004.

  43. 43.

    Huayu Li, “Green Market,” China Daily, November 19–25, 2007, 3.

  44. 44.

    Jing Li, “Nation Issues Post-Kyoto Plans,” China Daily, October 30, 2008, 2.

  45. 45.

    H. U. Neue and J. Boonjawat, “Methane Emissions from Rice Fields,” in James N. Galloway and Jerry M. Melillo, eds., Asian Change in the Context of Global Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme, 1998, 187.

  46. 46.

    Ibid.; also see, among others, M. W. Wang, A. Dai, R. Shen, H. Schutz, H. Rennenberg, W. Seiler & H. Wu, “Methane Emission from a Chinese Rice Paddy Field” (in Chinese), Acta Meteorological Sinica, Vol. 4 (1990), 265–75.

  47. 47.

    Neue and Bonjawat, 1998, 189.

  48. 48.

    Goddard Space Flight Center Top Story, “Shifts in Rice Farming Practices in China Reduce Greenhouse Gas Methane.” See http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2002/1204paddies.html (retrieved February 12, 2008).

  49. 49.

    Frank Fuller, Jikun Huang, Hengyun Ma, and Scott Rozelle, ”Got Milk? The Rapid Rise of China’s Dairy Sector and Its Future Prospects,” Food Policy, Vol. 31 (2006), 207.

  50. 50.

    J. Y. Fang, S. L. Su, and G. H. Liu, “Carbon Pools on Terrestrial Ecosystems of China and their Global Significance,” in International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, Natural and Anthropogenic Changes: Impacts on Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Beijing: 1995.

  51. 51.

    A large boreal forest fire in China in 1987 burned more than 1.3 million hectares. Cahoon et al. estimate that this fire, along with a simultaneous fire in Siberia, contributed 20% of the total carbon dioxide, 36% of the total carbon monoxide, and 69% of the total methane emitted by savanna burning in that year. See D. R. Cahoon, B. J. Stocks, J. S. Levine, W. R. Cofer, and K. P. O’Neill, “Seasonal Distribution of African Savanna Fires,” Nature, no. 359 (1992), 812–15.

  52. 52.

    Parviz Koohafkan, Ana Rey, and Jacques Antoine, “Soil Carbon Sequestration in Dryland Farming Systems,” in R. Lal, N. Uphoff, B. A. Stewart and D. O. Hansen, eds., Climate Change and Global Food Security. London: Taylor & Francis, 2005, 516.

  53. 53.

    C. Vorosmarty, C. Li, J. Sun, and Z. Dai, “Drainage Basins, River Systems, and Anthropogenic Change: The Chinese Example,” in James N. Galloway and Jerry M. Melillo, eds., Asian Change in the Context of Global Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998, 212.

  54. 54.

    D. L. Hartmann, Global Physical Climatology. San Diego, CA: Academic, 1994.

  55. 55.

    Q. Guo, “The East Asia Monsoon and the Southern Oscillation, 1871–1980,” in D. Ye, C. Fu, I. Chao, and M. Yoshino, eds., The Climate of China and Global Climate. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1987.

  56. 56.

    H. F. Diaz and C. Fu, “Regional Precipitation and Temperature Variability and its Relationship to the Southern Oscillation,” in D. Ye, C. Fu, I. Chao, and M. Yoshino, eds., The Climate of China and Global Climate. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1987.

  57. 57.

    W. Y. B. Chang and B. King, “Centennial Climate Changes and their Global Associations in the Yangtze River,” Climate Research, Vol. 4 (1994), 95–103. Also see Vorosmarty et al., 1998, 212.

  58. 58.

    C. B. Fu, “An Aridity Trend in China in Association with Global Warming,” in R. G. Ztpp, ed., Climate Biosphere Interaction: Biogenic Emissions and Environmental Effects of Climate Change. Chichester: Wiley, 1994, pp 1–17.

  59. 59.

    A good introduction to online sources is the paper by Elisa Chihi-Yin Lai, “Climate Change Impacts on the China Environment: Biophysical Impacts,” Woodrow Wilson Center, China Environmental Forum, 2009.

  60. 60.

    Xiaohua Sun, “Climate Change to be Better Monitored,” China Daily, September 12, 2007, 2.

  61. 61.

    Scientists have corrected for the impact of urban warming on weather stations, influencing rate of temperature increase. See Yaqing Zhou and Guoyu Ren, “Identifying and Correcting Urban Bias for Regional Surface Air Temperature Series of North China over Period of 1961–2000,” Climatic and Environmental Research, Vol. 10, no. 4 (December 2005), 743–53.

  62. 62.

    Guoyu Ren, Jun Guo, and Mingzhi Xu, “Climate Changes of China’s Mainland over the Past Half Century” (in Chinese), Acta Meteorologica Sinica, Vol. 63, no. 6 (2005c), 945–46; and Guoyu Ren, Mingzhi Xu, Ziying Chu, Jun Guo, Qingxiang Li, Xiaoning Liu, and Ying Wang, “Changes of Surface Air Temperature in China during 1951–2004,” Climatic and Environmental Research, Vol. 10, no. 4 (December 2005b), 718–20, in which the authors revise the mean temperature increase over the period from 1.1°C to 1.3°C.

  63. 63.

    North China temperatures climbed 1.4°C Centigrade in the last years, above the China and global average. See Xiaohua Sun, “Life Will Change, Scientists Warn,” China Daily, April 24, 2007, 2. Also see Kejia Zhang, “Charting the Pace of Change,” China Daily, July 25, 2007, 18.

  64. 64.

    The national weather bureau found temperatures in Tibet rising about ten times the speed of the national average, making the region a barometer for climate change. In 2007, studies centered on problems such as receding snow lines, shrinking glaciers, drying grasslands and desertification, as well as an increase in extreme weather events. See Xinhua, “Tibet Hard Hit by Global Warming,” China Daily, November 22, 2007, 5.

  65. 65.

    Guoli Tang and Guoyu Ren, “Reanalysis of Surface Air Temperature Change of the Last 100 Years over China,” (in Chinese) Climatic and Environmental Research, Vol. 10, no. 4 (December 2005b), 794–97.

  66. 66.

    Guoyu Ren, Ziying Chu, Yaqing Zhou, Mingzhi Xu, Ying Wang, Guoli Tang, Panmao Zhai, Xuemei Shao, Aiying Zhang, Zhenghong Chen, Jun Guo, Hongbin Liu, Jiangxing Zhou, Zongci Zhao, Li Zhang, Huzhi Bai, Xuefeng Liu, and Hongyu Tang, “Recent Progress in Studies of Regional Temperature Changes in China” (in Chinese), Climatic and Environmental Research, Vol. 10, no. 4 (December 2005a), 703–05.

  67. 67.

    Ibid., 710.

  68. 68.

    Ibid, 710–12.

  69. 69.

    Ren et al., 2005c, 946–47.

  70. 70.

    Ren et al., 2005c, 947.

  71. 71.

    New China News Agency, “Scientists Say Climate Change Reducing Flow of Rivers,” China Daily, July 16, 2007, 3.

  72. 72.

    The region provides 25% of the water flowing down the Yangtze, 49% of the water in the Yellow River, and 15% of the Lancang River water. See Juan Shan, “Key Water Source Threatened,” China Daily, August 13, 2007, 2.

  73. 73.

    Fangchao Li, “Global Warming Threatens Plateau,” China Daily, December 30–31, 2006, 1.

  74. 74.

    Lie Ma, “Climate Change Taking Toll on Glaciers,” China Daily, July 17, 2007, 4.

  75. 75.

    China Daily, September 14, 2009, 13.

  76. 76.

    Shanshan Wang, “Glaciers Melting at Alarming Speed,” China Daily, July 24, 2007, 1; and “Shrinking Glacier Threat to Rivers,” China Daily, November 2, 2007, 5; also see Jia Chen, “Targeting Climate Change in Himalayas,” China Daily, October 10, 2008, 2.

  77. 77.

    Ren et al., 2005c, 947, 950.

  78. 78.

    Mingzhi Xu and Guoyu Ren, “Change in Growing Season over China: 1961–2000,” Journal of Applied Meteorological Science, Vol. 15, no. 3 (June 2004), 306–12.

  79. 79.

    Ren et al., 2005c, 948, 950.

  80. 80.

    Zhuoqiong Wang, “Poverty Reduction ‘Still a Challenge’,” China Daily, October 18, 2007, 3.

  81. 81.

    R. R. Tregear, China: A Geographical Survey. New York: John Wiley, 1980. Erosion has deposited silt in the river bed.

  82. 82.

    Vorosmarty et al., 1998, 212.

  83. 83.

    P. Matthews, ed., The Guinness Book of Records, 1993. New York: Facts on File, 1993.

  84. 84.

    Vorosmarty et al., 1998, 220.

  85. 85.

    J.Q. Fang & Z. Xie, “Deforestation in Preindustrial China: The Loess Plateau Region as an Example,” Chemosphere, Vol. 29 (1994), 983–99.

  86. 86.

    C. Liu and D. Zuo, “Environmental Issues of the Three Gorges Project, China,” Regulated Rivers: Research and Management, Vol. 1 (1997), 267–73.

  87. 87.

    Economy, 2004, 9.

  88. 88.

    Dingding Xin, Weifeng Liu, and Fangchao Li, “No Let-up in Floods, Drought,” China Daily, July 30, 2007, 1; see also Chuanjiao Xie, “66 Killed as Floods Sweep S. China,” China Daily, June 11, 2007, 1.

  89. 89.

    Xinhua, “Loose Dykes Spur Flood Fears,” China Daily, July 25, 2007, 4.

  90. 90.

    Qiwen Liang, “Floods Take a Toll on Life,” China Daily, June 17, 2008, 1.

  91. 91.

    Anna Brettel, “Security, Energy, and the Environment,” in In-Taek Hyun and Miranda A. Schreurs, The Environmental Dimensions of Asian Security. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 2007, 108.

  92. 92.

    Vorosmarty et al., 1998, 213.

  93. 93.

    G. F. Gong and S. Hameed, “The Variation on Moisture Conditions in China during the last 2000 Years,” International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 11 (1991), 271–83.

  94. 94.

    Zhe Zhu, “Drought Affects 7.5 m People,” China Daily, August 6, 2007, 3; see also, Quanlin Qiu, “Crops at Risk as Droughts Worsen,” China Daily, August 3, 2007, 5.

  95. 95.

    See Ying Wang, “Weather Takes Toll on Farmers,” China Daily, February 25, 2008, 3; and Zhiming Xin, “Price Surge Becomes Real Food for Thought,” China Daily, April 16, 2008, 7.

  96. 96.

    Fangchao Li, “Autumn Grain Harvest Under Severe Threat,” China Daily, August 10, 2007, 3. See also Hong Chen, “1.25m Hit by Drought in Guangxi, Guangdong,” China Daily, December 18, 2007, 5.

  97. 97.

    Xinhua, “Fewer Killed in Disasters: Minister,” China Daily, August 23, 2007, 3. Also see Xinhua, “Nation Scrambles to Mitigate Impact of Climate Calamities,” China Daily, January 2, 2008, 2.

  98. 98.

    New China News Agency, “Natural Disasters Kill 1,279 in Seven Months,” China Daily, August 8, 2007, 2.

  99. 99.

    Zhiming Xin, “Floods, Drought ‘Won’t Hit’ Grain Output,” China Daily, August 8, 2007, 2. Also see Ying Wang, “Drought is Now Nationwide Problem, Officials Say,” China Daily, December 21, 2007, 3.

  100. 100.

    Jiao Wu, “Bad Weather Could Eat into Autumn Harvest,” China Daily, August 22, 2007, 3.

  101. 101.

    Yinan Hu, “Water Conservation Efforts Might Not be Sufficient,” China Daily, December 15–16, 2007, 3.

  102. 102.

    See Jing Li, “North to Suffer Severe Drought in Spring,” China Daily, March 4, 2008, 4; and Jia Chen, “North Suffering Worst Drought in 5 Yrs,” China Daily, March 28, 2008, 4.

  103. 103.

    Yinan Hu, “Regions Reel from Severe Drought, China Daily, February 5, 2009, 1 and Dingding Xin and Ce Liu, “Drought Scorches Much of China,” China Daily, August 31, 2009, 3.

  104. 104.

    Chuanjiao Xie, “Drought Relief Effort Underway,” China Daily, February 3, 2009, 3 and Xiaokun Li and Yinan Hu, “Fighting Drought Top Priority: Wen,” China Daily, February 9, 2009, 1.

  105. 105.

    Yingzi Tan, “Grain Costs Stable Despite Dry Fields,” China Daily, February 13, 2009, 2.

  106. 106.

    Jing Li, “Experts Warn Droughts to Dry Up North for Decades,” China Daily, February 14, 2009, 4.

  107. 107.

    Yu Xiao, “Facing Up to Climate Change,” China Daily, February 14, 2008, 4.

  108. 108.

    Xiaohua Sun, “Nation’s Average Temperatures at Highest Level since 1951,” China Daily, December 1–2, 2007, l.

  109. 109.

    Quanlin Qiu, “Crops at Risk as Droughts Worsen,” China Daily, August 3, 2007, 5; also see Xiaohua Sun, “Global Warming Takes Toll,” China Daily, March 2, 2007, 2; also see Quanlin Qiu, “5 Killed in Guangdong,” China Daily, September 25, 2008, 2.

  110. 110.

    Yinlong Xu, Haiyan Zhao, Fengmei Yao, Yong Zhang, Bin Xu, Yanan Hu, and Jing Yuan, “Statistical Analysis of Impacts of High Temperature Events on Rice Yield Components over Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River” (in Chinese), Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, Vol. 26 (December 2005), 20–23.

  111. 111.

    Xiaoping Qian and Xiuqing Wang, “Influence Analysis of Climate Change on Grain Supply Function and Yield Response in China” (in Chinese), Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, Vol. 26 (December 2005), 14–19.

  112. 112.

    Jing Li, “Warm Winter ‘Major Threat’ to Crops,” China Daily, November 26, 2008, 3; see also Qian Wang and Hongyi Wang, “’Blame Global Warming’ for Higher Temps,” China Daily, February 14, 2009, 1.

  113. 113.

    Xiaohua Sun, “Rising Seas Pose Danger to Big Cities,” China Daily, December 13, 2007, 1.

  114. 114.

    Quanlin Qiu, “Zhanjiang Hit by Worst Downpour in 200 Years,” China Daily, August 13, 2007, 1.

  115. 115.

    Jing Fu, “Measures Taken to Protect Farmers,” China Daily, February 20, 2008, 2.

  116. 116.

    Qiwen Zhu, “Meteorologists Ill-equipped to Forecast Bad Weather,” China Daily, February 15, 2008, 1, and Xiaohua Sun, “Green Cost of Sleet: $8b of Forest Wealth,” China Daily, February 20, 2008, 1.

  117. 117.

    Ibid.

  118. 118.

    See Howard W. French, “Experts Warned of Quake Risk in China,” New York Times, June 5, 2008, A1.

  119. 119.

    Global warming would cause more frequent drought in currently dry, low-lying and mid-altitude areas, reducing rainfall by 10–30% by 2030. Contrariwise, wet high altitude areas would experience more drastic floods. See Jiao Wu, “More Arable Land ‘Needed’ by 2030,” China Daily, August 23, 2007, 2.

  120. 120.

    Xinhua, “Food Security at Risk: Report,” China Daily, January 4, 2007, 3.

  121. 121.

    Jing Li, “Climate Change ‘Threatens’ Food Safety,” China Daily, October 16, 2008, 2.

  122. 122.

    Jinxia Wang, Robert Mendelsohn, Ariel Dinar, Jikun Huang, Scott Rozelle, and Lijuan Zhang, Can China Continue Feeding Itself? The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture. Washington, DC: The World Bank, Policy Research Working Paper 4470, 2007, 15.

  123. 123.

    Xiaohua Sun, “Rising Sea Levels to Take Toll on Nation,” China Daily, November 23, 2007, 1.

  124. 124.

    For a similar appraisal, see F. Tao, M. Yokozawa, J. Liu and Z. Zhang, “Climate Change, Land Use Change, and China’s Food Security in the Twenty-first Century: An Integrated Perspective,” Climatic Change, Vol. 81 (2008), 138–51.

  125. 125.

    C. L. Tong, C. A. S. Hall, and H. Q. Wang, “Land Use Change in Rice, Wheat and Maize Production in China (1961–1998),” Agricultural Ecosystem and Environment, Vol. 95 (2003), 523–36.

  126. 126.

    China–UK Collaboration Project, Investigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Chinese Agriculture. London: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), 2004.

  127. 127.

    Erda Lin, Wei Xiong, Hui Ju, Yinlong Xu, Yue Li, Liping Bai, and Liyong Xie, “Climate Change Impacts on Crop Yield and Quality with CO2 Fertilization in China,” Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, Vol. (2005, in press); also see Haiyan Zhao, Qiaojuan Cui, Fengmei Yao, Zhan Tian, Changli Chen, and Yinlong Xu, “Response of Rice and Wheat Net Photosynthetic Rate to CO2 Concentrations and PAR,” Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology (in Chinese), Vol. 26 (December 2005), 65.

  128. 128.

    China–UK Collaboration Project, 2004, 4.

  129. 129.

    Ibid., 6.

  130. 130.

    See Fengmei Yao, Yinlong Xu, and Bin Xu, “Analysis of the Temporal and Spatial Distribution and the Character of the Period of Rice Climate Yields in the Northeast Rice Areas” (in Chinese), Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, Vol. 26 (December 2005), 31–36.

  131. 131.

    See Yinlong Xu and Zhan Tian, “Exploring the Methodology to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Wheat Production in China Using RCM Scenarios” (in Chinese), Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, Vol. 26 (December 2005), 46–51.

  132. 132.

    China–UK Collaboration Project, 2004, 8–9.

  133. 133.

    Yanling Song, Deliang Chen, and Wenjie Dong, using a different model (the World Food Studies crop model) report similar findings: an increase of winter wheat yield in northern China and a reduction in southern China. See their “Influence of Climate on Winter Wheat Productivity in Different Climate Regions of China, 1961–2000,” Climate Research, Vol. 32 (2006), 219–27.

  134. 134.

    See Qiaojuan Cui and Yinlong Xu, “Validating CERES-Maize Model in China Using Field Observation Data Sets” (in Chinese), Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 37–41.

  135. 135.

    China–UK Collaboration Project, 2004, 7–8.

  136. 136.

    Ibid., 9.

  137. 137.

    Ibid., 9.

  138. 138.

    Wei Xiong, Erda Lin, Hui Ju, and Yinlong Xu, “Climate Change and Critical Thresholds in China’s Food Security,” Climatic Change, Vol. 81 (2007), 218.

  139. 139.

    See C. Rosenzweig, M. L. Parry, G. Fischer, and K. Frohberg, Climate Change and World Food Supply. Oxford: University of Oxford, Environmental Change Unit, Research Report No. 3, 1993.

  140. 140.

    Zhe Zhu, “Autumn Harvest Under Severe Threat,” China Daily, August 30, 2007, 3.

  141. 141.

    Government planning documents display additional difficulties – general and vague policies related to climate change mitigation without clear guidance from officials charged with their implementation. See, for example, People’s Republic of China, Initial National Communication on Climate Change, and especially, chapter 4 “Politics and Measures Related to Climate Change Mitigation.” Beijing: 2003.

  142. 142.

    State Council, Beijing, 2008. Also see excerpts, “Comprehensive Plan to Fight Climate Change,” China Daily, October 30, 2008, 4–6, and Jing Li, “Sweeping Change,” China Daily, December 8, 2008, 4.

  143. 143.

    For the linkage between climate change and development in China, see Jun Pang and Ji Zou, China’s Policy-Making Process on Climate Change,” in Y. Kamayama, A. P. Sari, M. H. Soejachmoen, and N. Kanie, eds., Climate Change in Asia: Perspectives on the Future Climate Regime. New York: United Nations University Press, 2008, 66–82.

  144. 144.

    Ibid., China Daily, October 30, 2008, 6.

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    Jenifer Huang McBeath & Jerry McBeath

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McBeath, J.H., McBeath, J. (2010). Near-Term Environmental Stressors: Climate Change. In: Environmental Change and Food Security in China. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 35. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9180-3_4

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