Methods for Evaluating Social Vulnerability to Drought

Abstract

Social vulnerability to drought is complex and it is reflected by society’s capacity to anticipate, cope with and respond. Here we estimate these aspects of social vulnerability, evaluating the natural resource structure, the economic capacity, the human and civic resources, and aspects of agricultural innovation. These factors are components of a vulnerability index and they can be weighted appropriately in computing the final value of the index. In this chapter we present the results of the index under two valuation scenarios. For Scenario 1 all components are valued equally. For Scenario 2 the human resources component is given 50% of the weight, the economic and natural resource components are given 20% of the weight each, and the agricultural technology is given 10% of the weight. This reflects the assumption that a society with institutional capacity and coordination and mechanisms for public participation is less vulnerable to drought and that agriculture is only one of the sectors affected by drought. The vulnerability index establishes robust conclusions since the range of values across countries does not change with the assumptions under the two scenarios.