Risk Evaluation of Terrorist Attacks Against Chemical Facilities and Transport Systems in Urban Areas

Abstract

Terrorist actions have increased in recent years. In the past, terrorist attacks or sabotage have been considered as a security problem but their frequency means they must also be considered from the safety point of view. A complete risk analysis must include scenarios caused by terrorist attack or sabotage. As well as chemical plants and storage facilities, characterized by the presence of large quantities of dangerous substances, also road/rail tankers used for their transport constitute potential targets. The hazard associated with transportation depends on the vulnerability of the territory. This paper focuses attention on the description of a methodology for the analysis of incidental scenarios caused by terrorist attacks in urban areas and the identification of some aspects where improvements can be made. Finally, an application of this method is illustrated. Furthermore, in order to obtain a complete risk analysis, it is necessary to take into account that, beyond substances transported, the consequences depend on the mode of attack and the characteristics of the infrastructure and territory.