Abstract
Long-term simulations of surface ozone (O3) over East Asia during 1980–2020 were conducted using the regional scale chemical transport model (CMAQ) and the newly developed year-by-year emission inventory in Asia (REAS). The CMAQ with the REAS could reproduce the spatial and seasonal variations of the observed surface O3 concentrations in 2000 and 2001. The historical simulation from 1980 to 2003 demonstrates that an annually-averaged concentration of surface O3 over the Central East China (CEC) and Japan increases about 12 ppbv (1% year−1) and 5 ppbv (0.4% year−1) during a quarter century, respectively. This simulated trend in Japan generally agrees with the observed trend measured at monitoring stations and is correlated with the trend of Chinese NOx and NMVOC emissions. The future emissions up to 2020 were projected based on three emission scenarios (PSC, REF, and PFC). In 2020, the Chinese NOx emissions in each scenario are expected to increase by −1% (PSC), +40% (REF), and +128% (PFC) from 2000, respectively. The worst scenario (PFC) shows that the East Asian NOx emissions almost double between 2000 and 2020. We find that the surface O3 concentrations in East Asia will increase significantly in the near future due to projected increases in NOx emissions.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Akimoto H (2003) Global air quality and pollution. Science 302:1716-1719
Akimoto H, Ohara T, Kurokawa J, Horii N (2006) Verification of energy consumption in China during 1996-2003 by satellite observation. Atmos Environ 40:7663-7667
Byun DW, Ching JKS (eds.) (1999) Science algorithms of the EPA Models-3 community multi-scale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system. NERL, Research Triangle Park, NC EPA/ 600/R-99/030
Naja M, Akimoto H (2004) Contribution of regional pollution and long-range transport to the Asia-Pacific region: analysis of long-term ozonesonde data over Japan. J Geophys Res 109: D21306, doi:10.1029/2004JD004687
Ohara T, Akimoto H, Kurokawa J, Horii N, Yamaji K, Yan X, Hayasaka T (2007) An Asian emission inventory of anthropogenic emission sources for the period 1980-2020. Atmos Chem Phys 7:4419-4444
Pielke RA, Cotton WR, Walko RL, Tremback CJ, et al. (1992) A comprehensive meteorological modeling system - RAMS. Meteor Atmos Phys 49:69-91
Sudo K, Takahashi M, Kurokawa J, Akimoto H (2002) CHASER: a global chemical model of the troposphere - 1. Model description. J Geophys Res 107 (D17):4339, doi:10.1029/2001JD001113
Tanimoto H, Sawa Y, Matsueda H, Uno I, Ohara T, Yamaji K, Kurokawa J, Yonemura S (2005) Significant latitudinal gradient in the surface ozone spring maximum over East Asia. Geophys Res Lett 32:L21805, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL023514
Uno I, He Y, Ohara T, et al. (2007) Systematic analysis of interannual and seasonal variations of model-simulated tropospheric NO2 in Asia and comparison with GOME-satellite data. Atmos Chem Phys 7:1671-1681
Wild O, Akimoto H (2001) Intercontinental transport of ozone and its precursors in a three-dimensional global CTM. J Geophys Res 106:27729-27744
Yamaji K, Ohara T, Uno I, Tanimoto H, Kurokawa J, Akimoto H (2006) Analysis of seasonal variation of ozone in the boundary layer in East Asia using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality model: what controls surface ozone level over Japan? Atmos Environ 40:1856-1868
Yamaji K, Ohara T, Uno I, Kurokawa J, Pochanart P, Akimoto H (2008) Future prediction of surface ozone over east Asia using Models-3 Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System and Regional Emission Inventory in Asia, J Geophys Res 113: D08306, doi:10.1029/2007JD008663
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Springer Science + Business Media B.V
About this paper
Cite this paper
Ohara, T. et al. (2008). Long-Term Simulations of Surface Ozone in East Asia During 1980 – 2020 with CMAQ and REAS Inventory. In: Borrego, C., Miranda, A.I. (eds) Air Pollution Modeling and Its Application XIX. NATO Science for Peace and Security Series Series C: Environmental Security. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8453-9_15
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8453-9_15
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-8452-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-8453-9
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)