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Deterministic Methods for Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Tracks

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Modelling and Monitoring of Coastal Marine Processes

Abstract

Prediction of the tracks of tropical cyclones is one of the most difficult and challenging problems of current international tropical cyclone research. The focal point of this research is to minimize the forecast errors to the extent that the forecast can be used effectively for issuing appropriate warnings for disaster management purposes. The level of importance is reflected in the large number of forecast techniques that have been developed using wide range of approaches, from empirical through statistical and dynamical. However, due to complexities of the problem, no single technique has proven to have outstanding performance relative to the others. Figure 1 is a good example of the performance of eight different operational track prediction models for hurricane ‘Elena’ of August, 1985. All the eight predicted tracks are in different directions, but the hurricane moved unexpectedly in yet another direction far apart from all the above tracks.

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  1. Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Hauz Khas, New Delhi, 110 016

    U.C. Mohanty

  2. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Mausam Bhavan Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi, 110003

    Akhilesh Gupta

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Mohanty, U., Gupta, A. (2008). Deterministic Methods for Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Tracks. In: Modelling and Monitoring of Coastal Marine Processes. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-8327-3_10

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