Abstract
Effective prevention and control of epidemics has been a key element of global, regional and national disease control policies for many years. Epidemics are by their nature abnormal events and will clearly challenge the normal routine approaches to control and provision of treatment. Epidemics are caused by unusual changes in the existing equilibrium between the human host, the pathogen and its vector. While the level of risk may be exacerbated by social factors, climate variability plays an important role and indeed it is most often abnormality in meteorological and environmental conditions that ‘triggers’ epidemics of the climate sensitive diseases.
Malaria and dengue are considered climate-sensitive diseases and in recent years there have been attempts to develop and test integrated early warning systems which seek to provide advance warning of changes in epidemic risk, through incremental indicators that allow control services greater opportunity to plan, choose and implement more timely and focused response in the areas affected. This paper uses the example of malaria early warning system applications in Southern Africa to illustrate the elements of the system, evidence of its potential benefits, including the control options it may provide and some of the current challenges and opportunities for its broader implementation in Africa and elsewhere.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Connor, S.J. (2003). Improved knowledge on the climatic and environmental determinants of malaria distribution in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for improving control planning and reducing vulnerability to malaria (and other climate sensitive diseases). Consultancy Report: DFID Malaria Knowledge Programme, LSTM, 94.
Connor, S.J. (2005). Climate and environmental monitoring applications in epidemic early warning. In: Confalonieri, U.E.C & Marinho, D.P., 2005. Remote Sensing and the Control of Infectious Diseases: Proceedings of an Inter-American Workshop. ENSP/FIOCRUZ, Rio de Janeiro, 104 pp.
Connor, S.J. and M.C. Thomson (2005). Epidemic malaria: preparing for the unexpected. A Policy Brief. SciDevNet Dossier on Malaria, SciDevNet.
Connor, S.J., M.C. Thomson, and D.H. Molyneux (1999). Forecasting and prevention of epidemic malaria: new perspectives on an old problem. Parassitologia 41(1–3):439–448.
Connor, S.J., J. DaSilva, and S. Katikiti (2007). Malaria control in Southern Africa. In: Hellmuth, M.E., Moorhead, A., Thomson, M.C., and Williams, J. (eds). Climate Risk Management in Africa: Learning from Practice. New York: International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University.
Cox, J., M. Craig, D. Le Sueur, and B. Sharp (1999). Mapping malaria risk in the highlands of Africa. Durban: Medical Research Council, 96.
Craig, M.H., R.W. Snow, and D. Le Sueur (1999). A climate-based distribution model of malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitology Today 15(3):105–111.
Da Silva, J., B. Garanganga, V. Teveredzi, S.M. Marx, S.J.Mason, and S.J. Connor (2004). Improving epidemic malaria planning, preparedness and response in Southern Africa. Malaria Journal 3(1):37.
Goddard, L. and S.J. Mason (2002). Sensitivity of seasonal climate forecasts to persisted SST anomalies. Climate Dynamics 19:619–632.
Hay, S., C.A. Guerra, A.J. Tatem, A.M. Noor and R.W. Snow (2004). The global distribution and population at risk of malaria: past, present and future. The Lancet 4:327–336.
Kiszewski, A.E. and A. Teklehaimanot (2004). A review of the clinical and epidemiological burdens of epidemic malaria. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 71(Suppl 2): 128–135.
MARA (1998). Towards an Atlas of Malaria Risk in Africa. Durban: MARA/ARMA, 30.
MSPC (1996). Guia integral de manejo de las enfermedades transmitidas por vectores. Bogota: Ministerio de Protección Social de Colombia.
MSPC (2000). Memorias reunión Impulso a la iniciativa hacer retroceder la malaria. Bogota: Ministerio de Protección Social de Colombia.
MSPC (2003a). Malaria: Estrategias para afrontar una prioridad en salud pública. Memorias curso-taller. Bogota: Ministerio de Protección Social de Colombia.
MSPC (2003b). Plan nacional de vigilancia y control de la malaria en Colombia 2003–2006. Bogota: Ministerio de Protección Social de Colombia.
Musawenkosi, L., H. Mabosa, B. Sharp and C. Lengeler (2004). Historical review of malaria control in Southern Africa with emphasis on the use of indoor residual house spraying. Tropical Medicine and International Health 9(8):846–856.
Najera, J.A. (1999). Malaria Control: Achievements, Problems & Atrategies. Geneva: World Health Organization.
Najera, J.A., R.L. Kouznetzsov, and C. Delacollette (1998). Malaria Epidemics: Detection and Control, Forecasting and Prevention. Geneva: WHO.
Sachs, J.D. and P. Malaney (2002). The economic and social burden of malaria. Nature 415:680–685.
SADC (2003). SADC Malaria Report 2003. Gaborone: Southern Africa Development Community, 36.
Thomson, M.C., S.J. Connor, N. Ward, and D. Molyneux (2004a). Impact of climate variability on infectious disease in West Africa. Eco-Health 1:138–150.
Thomson, M.C., P.J. Erickson, A. Ben Mohamed, and S.J. Connor (2004b). Land use change and infectious disease in West Africa. In: R. De Fries, G. Asner and R. Houghton (eds). Ecosystems and Land Use Change. Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union.
Thomson, M.C., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, S.J. Mason, R. Hagedorn, S.J. Connor, T. Phindela, A.P. Morse and T.N. Palmer (2006). Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature 439, 576–579.
Thomson, M.C., S.J. Mason, T. Phindela and S.J. Connor (2005). Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 73(1):214–221.
Wernsdorfer, W.H. (1980). The importance of malaria in the world. In: J.P. Kreir (ed). Malaria, vol 1. New York: Academic, 1–93.
WHO-UNICEF (2003). Africa Malaria Report 2003. Geneva: World Health Organization, UNICEF.
WHO (1993a). Implementation of The Global Malaria Control Strategy: Report of a WHO Study Group on the Implementation of the Global Plan of Action for Malaria Control 1993–2000. Geneva: WHO.
WHO (1993b). A global strategy for malaria control. Geneva: WHO.
WHO (1998). Roll Back Malaria: a Global Partnership. Geneva: World Health Organisation.
WHO (2000). WHO Expert Committee on Malaria, 20th Report. Geneva: WHO, 71.
WHO (2001a). Macroeconomics and Health: Investing in Health for Economic Development. Report on the Commission for Macro-Economics and Health. Geneva: World Health Organization, 213.
WHO (2001b). Malaria Early Warning Systems: concepts, indicators and partners. A framework for field research in Africa. Geneva: WHO, WHO/CDS/RBM/2001.32.
WHO (2002a). Final report on the 3rd meeting of the RBM Technical Resource Network on Epidemic Prevention and Control. Geneva: WHO.
WHO (2002b). Strategic framework to decrease the burden of TB/HIV. Geneva: World Health Organization, 49.
WHO (2004). Malaria epidemics: forecasting, prevention, early warning and control–From policy to practice. Geneva: World Health Organization, 59.
WHO (2005a). Using climate to predict infectious disease epidemics. Geneva: World Health Organization, 54.
WHO (2005b). Malaria and HIV interactions and their implications for public health policy. Geneva: World Health Organization, 38.
Worrall, E., A. Rietveld and C. Delacollette (2004). The burden of malaria epidemics and cost-effectiveness of interventions in epidemic situations in Africa. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 71(Suppl 2):136–140.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Springer Science + Business Media B.V
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Connor, S.J., Mantilla, G.C. (2008). Integration of Seasonal Forecasts into Early Warning Systems for Climate-Sensitive Diseases such as Malaria and Dengue. In: Thomson, M.C., Garcia-Herrera, R., Beniston, M. (eds) Seasonal Forecasts, Climatic Change and Human Health. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 30. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6877-5_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6877-5_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-6876-8
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-6877-5
eBook Packages: MedicineMedicine (R0)