Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Arctic Sea Ice Variability During the Last Half Century

  • Chapter
Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years

Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 33))

Abstract

Observational data and modeling results are analyzed to describe changes in the Arctic sea ice cover during the last half century. Accelerated melt of sea ice cover is reported during the late 1990s and 2000s both based on satellite observations of sea ice extent and model simulations of sea ice thickness. The observed and modeled changes are in qualitative agreement but model results imply higher rate of ice thickness decline compared to sea ice extent. Possible causes of variability in sea ice cover include increased surface air temperatures, changes in atmospheric circulation and changes in the absorption of incoming radiative flux. However, atmospheric forcings, such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO), explain less than half of the total variance in Arctic sea ice cover. Model results analyzed in the Greenland Sea as well as observations in the western Arctic Ocean indicate that oceanic forcing might be an important overlooked factor in driving recent sea ice melt. The main oceanic processes relevant to variability of sea ice cover include advection of heat and melting of sea ice in marginal ice zones and at the ice-ocean interface downstream of the warm water paths. Such changes have potential significant ramifications to the entire pan-Arctic region, including the physical environment, regional ecosystems, native communities, and use of the region for commercial exploration and transportation. Continued studies including in situ and remote sensing observations and modeling are critical to advancing the knowledge of Arctic climate change and predicting scenarios of future change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • ACIA (2005) Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, 1042 p.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bjørgo, E., O. M. Johannessen, and M. W. Miles, 1997: Analysis of merged SSMR-SSMI time series of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice parameters 1978–1995. Geophys. Res. Lett., 24(4), 413–416.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cavalieri, D. J., J. Crawford, M. Drinkwater, W. J. Emery, D. T. Eppler, L. D. Farmer, M. Goodberlet, R. Jentz, A. Milman, C. Morris, R. Onstott, A. Schweiger, R. Shuchman, K. Steffen, C. T. Swift, C. Wackerman, and R. L. Weaver, 1992: NASA Sea Ice Validation Program for the DMSP SSM/I: Final Report. NASA Technical Memorandum 104559. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, DC, 126 p.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cavalieri, D., C. Parkinson, P. Gloersen, H. J. Zwally, 1996, updated 2006: Sea ice Concentrations from Nimbus-7 SMMR and DMSP SSMI Passive Microwave Data (list dates used). National Snow and Ice Data Center, Digital Media, Boulder, CO.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cavalieri, D. J., P. Gloersen, C. L. Parkinson, J. C. Comiso, and H. J. Zwally, 1997: Observed hemispheric asymmetry in global sea ice changes. Science, 272, 1104–1106.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clement, J. C., W. Maslowski, L. W. Cooper, J. M. Grebmeier, and W. Walczowski, 2005: Ocean circulation and exchanges through the northern Bering Sea–1979–2001 model results. Deep Sea Res. II, 52(24–26), 3509–3540.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clement, J. L., W. Maslowski, L. Cooper, J. Grebmeier, and W. Walczowski, 2005: Ocean circulation and exchanges through the northern Bering Sea–1979–2001 model results. Deep Sea Res. II, 52, 3509–3540, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2005.09.010.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Comiso, J. C., 2002: A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the arctic. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(20), 1956, doi:10.1029/2002GL015650.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dukowicz, J. K. and R. D. Smith, 1994: Implicit free-surface method for the Bryan-Cox-Semtner ocean model. J. Geophys. Res., 99(C4), 7991–8014.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Foley, J. A., 2005: Tipping points in the Tundra. Science, 310, 627–28, doi:10.1126/science.1120104.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Francis, J. A., E. Hunter, J. R. Key, and X. Wang, 2005: Clues to variability in Arctic minimum sea ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, 21501, doi:10.1029/2005GL024376.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haas, C., 2004: Late-summer sea ice thickness variability in the Arctic transpolar drift 1991–2001 derived from ground-based electromagnetic sounding. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09402, doi:10.1029/2003GL019394.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holland, M. M., C. M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay, 2006: Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503, doi:10.1029/2006GL028024.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Johannessen, O., E. V. Shalina, and M. W. Miles, 1999: Satellite evidence for an arctic sea ice cover in transformation. Science, 286, 1937–1939.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay, E. et al., 1996: The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 40-year project. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 437–471.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lindsay, R. W. and J. Zhang, 2005: The thinning of Arctic Sea ice, 1988–2003: have we passed a tipping point? J. Climate, 18, 4879–94, doi:10.1175/JCLI3587.1.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maslowski, W. and W. H. Lipscomb, 2003: High-resolution simulations of Arctic Sea ice during 1979–1993. Polar Res., 22, 67–74.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Maslowski, W., D. Marble, W. Walczowski, U. Schauer, J. L. Clement, and A. J. Semtner, 2004: On climatological mass, heat, and salt transports through the Barents Sea and Fram Strait from a pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean model simulation. J. Geophys. Res., 109, C03032, doi:10.1029/2001JC001039.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meier, W. N., J. Stroeve, F. Fetterer, and K. Knowles 2005: Reductions in Arctic Sea ice cover no longer limited to summer. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 86(36), 326.

    Google Scholar 

  • Meier W. N., J. Stroeve, and F. Fetterer, 2007: The declining Arctic Sea ice: how much of an indicator of change is it? Ann. Glaciol., 46.

    Google Scholar 

  • Melling, H. D., Riedel, and Z. Gedalof, 2005: Trends in the droft and extent of seasonal pack ice, Canadian Beaufort Sea. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, doi:10.1029/2005GLO24483.

    Google Scholar 

  • Overpeck, J. T. et al., 2005: Arctic system on trajectory to new, seasonally ice-free state. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 86, 309, 312–313.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parkinson, C. L. and W. M. Washington, 1979: A large-scale numerical model of sea ice. J. Geophys. Res., 84, 311–337.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parkinson, C. L., D. J. Cavalieri, P. Gloersen, H. J. Zwally, and J. C. Comiso, 1999: Arctic Sea ice extents, areas, and trends, 1978–1996. J. Geophys. Res., 104(C9), 20837–20856.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Polyakov, I. V., R. V. Bekryaev, G. V. Alekseev, U. Bhatt, R. L. Colony, M. A. Jonson, A. P. Makshtas, and D. Walsh, 2003: Variability and trends of air temperature and pressure in the maritime Arctic, 1875–2000. J. Climate., 16(12), 2067–2077.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res., 108(D14), 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rigor, I. G. and J. M. Wallace, 2004: Variations in the age of sea ice and summer sea ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, doi:10.1029 /2004GL019492.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rigor, I. G., J. M. Wallace, and R. L.Colony, 2002: Response of sea ice to the Arctic oscillation. J. Climate, 15(18), 2648–2668.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rinke, A., W. Maslowski, K. Dethloff, and J. Clement, 2006: Influence of sea ice on the atmosphere: a study with an Arctic atmospheric regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D16103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006957.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rothrock, D. A., Y. Yu, and G. A. Maykut, 1999: Thinning of the Arctic Sea ice cover. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 3469–3472.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rothrock, D. A., J. Zhang, and Y. Yu, 2003: The Arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: a consistent view from observations and models. J. Geophys. Res., 108, C3, doi:10.1029/2001 JC001208.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Semtner, A. J., 1976: A model for the thermodynamic growth of sea ice in numerical investigations of climate. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 6, 379–389.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Serreze, M. C., J. A. Maslanik, T. A. Scambos, F. Fetterer, J. Stroeve, K. Knowles, C. Fowler, S. Drobot, R. G. Barry, and T. M. Haran, 2003: A record minimum Arctic Sea ice extent and area in 2002. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(3), 1110, doi:10.1029/2002GL016406.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shimada, K., T. Kamoshida, , M. Itoh, S. Nishino, E. Carmack, F. McLaughlin, S. Zimmermann, and A. Proshutinsky, 2006: Pacific ocean inflow: influence on catastrophic reduction of sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L08605, doi:10.1029/2005GL025624.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stroeve, J. C., M. C. Serreze, F. Fetterer, T. Arbetter, W. Meier, J. Maslanik, and K. Knowles, 2005: Tracking the Arctic’s shrinking ice cover: another extreme September minimum in 2004. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L04501, doi:10.1029/2004GL021810.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stroeve, J., T. Markus, W. N. Meier, and J. Miller, 2006: Recent changes in the Arctic melt season, Ann. Glaciol., 44, 367–374.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Walczowski, W. and J. Piechura, 2006: New evidence of warming propagating toward the Arctic Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12601, doi:10.1029/2006GL025872.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, J. and W. D. Hibler, 1997: On an efficient numerical method for modeling sea ice dynamics. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 8691–8702.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang, J., D. Thomas, D. A. Rothrock, R. Lindsay, Y. Yu, and R. Kwok, 2003: Assimilation of ice motion observations and comparisons with submarine ice thickness data. J. Geophys. Res., 108(C6), 3170, doi:10.1029/2001JC001041.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, Campus Box 449, 80309, USA

    J. Stroeve

  2. Department of Oceanography, Naval Postgraduate School, 833 Dyer Road, Monterey, CA, 93943, USA

    W. Maslowski

Authors
  1. J. Stroeve
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. W. Maslowski
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland

    Stefan Brönnimann  & Tracy Ewen  & 

  2. NCCR Climate and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland

    Jürg Luterbacher

  3. NOAA-ESRL, Boulder, CO, USA

    Henry F. Diaz

  4. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Richard S. Stolarski

  5. ProClim, Bern, Switzerland

    Urs Neu

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2008 Springer Science + Business Media B.V

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Stroeve, J., Maslowski, W. (2008). Arctic Sea Ice Variability During the Last Half Century. In: Brönnimann, S., Luterbacher, J., Ewen, T., Diaz, H., Stolarski, R., Neu, U. (eds) Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 33. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6766-2_9

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation