Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Human Activity and Climate Change in Africa

  • Chapter
Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years

Part of the book series: Advances in Global Change Research ((AGLO,volume 33))

Abstract

The severe drought during the second half of the 20th century has demonstrated that livelihood in Africa is highly sensitive to climatic conditions. From previous studies the complexity of the key factors in African climate variability can be inferred. This chapter discusses the various key factors and highlights the need of more complex scenarios to assess the human influence on African climate. In particular, the effect of ongoing land-use changes in the course of population growth, shifting cultivation and overgrazing has to be taken into account. New ensemble simulations with a regional climate model are presented, which are subject to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and land cover changes. The model predicts dryer conditions, near-surface warming and an intensification of heat stress. There is some indication that reforestation and regional protection of natural vegetation may be more effective for mitigating climate change in Africa than reduced greenhouse gas emissions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Achenbach, H., 1994: Die agraren Produktionszonen der Erde und ihre natürlichen Risikofaktoren. Geogr. Rundschau, 46, 58–64.

    Google Scholar 

  • Azar, C. and H. Rodhe, 1997: Targets for stabilization of atmospheric CO2. Science, 276, 1818–1819.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Bader, J. and M. Latif, 2003: The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temeprature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 10.1029/2003GL018426.

    Google Scholar 

  • Balzarek, H., W. Fricke, J. Heinrich et al., 2003: Man-made flood disaster in the Savanna town of Gombe/NE Nigeria. The natural hazard of gully erosion caused by urbanization dynamics and their peri-urban footprints. Erdkunde, 57, 94–109.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Benson, C. and E. J. Clay, 1998: The impact of drought on sub-Saharan economies. World Bank Tech Paper 401, Wold Bank, Washingtion DC.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Black, E., J. Slingo, and K. R. Sperber, 2003: An observational study of the relationship between excessively strong short rains in coastal East Africa and Indian Ocean SST. Mon Wea Rev., 131, 74–94.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bounoua, L., G. J. Collatz, S. O. Los et al., 2000: Sensitivity of climate to changes in NDVI. J. Climate, 13, 2277–2292.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braun, T. and U. Scholz, 1997: Shifting Cultivation – Krebsschaden aller Tropenländer? Geogr. Rundschau, 49, 4–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Camberlin, P., S. Janicot, and I. Poccard, 2001: Seasonality and atmospheric dynamics of the teleconnection between African rainfall and tropical sea-surface temperature: Atlantic vs. ENSO. Int. J. Climateatol, 21, 973–1004.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chang, P., R. Saravanan, Ji L, and G. C. Hegerl, 2000: The effect of local sea surface temperature on atmopsheric circulation over the tropical Atlantic sector. J. Climate, 13, 2195–2216.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CIESIN, 1996: Gridded Population Density of the World. Consortium for International Earth Science Information Network. Michigan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Clark, D. B., Y. Xue, R. J. Harding, and P. J. Valdes, 2001: Modeling the impact of land surface degradation on the climate of tropical North Africa. J. Climate, 14, 1809–1822.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook, K. H., 1999: Generation of the African easterly jet and its role in determining West African precipitation. J. Climate, 12, 1165–1184.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cullen, H. M. and P. B. de Menocal, 2000: North Atlantic influence on Tigris-Euphrates streamflow. Int. J. Climateatol, 20, 853–863.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douville, H., F. Chauvin, and H. Broqua, 2001: Influence of soil moisture on the Asian and African monsoons. Part I: Mean monsoon and daily precipitation. J. Climate, 14, 2381–2402.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eklundh, L. and L. Olsson, 2003: Vegetation index trends for the African Sahel 1982–1999. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 10.1029/2002GL016772.

    Google Scholar 

  • Feichter, J., E. Roeckner, U. Lohmann, and B. G. Liepert, 2004: Nonlinear aspects of the climate response to greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing. J. Climate, 17, 2384–2398.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Findley, S. E., 1994: Does drought increase migration? A study of migration from rural Mali during the 1983–1985 drought. Int Migr Rev, 28, 539–553.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fontaine, B., N. Philippon, S. Trzaska, and R. Roucou, 2002: Spring to summer changes in the West African monsoon through NCEP/NCAR reanalyses (1968–1998). J. Geophys. Res., 107, 10.1029/2001JD000834.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gaebe, W., 1994: Urbanisierung in Afrika. Geogr Rundschau, 46, 570–576.

    Google Scholar 

  • Giannini, A., R. Saravanan, and P. Chang, 2003: Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales. Science, 302, 1027–1030.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • GLACE Team, 2004: Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science, 305, 1138–1140.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hammer, T., 2000: Desertifikation im Sahel. Geogr. Rundschau, 52, 4–10.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hastenrath, S., 2000: Interannual and longer term variability of upper-air circulation over the tropical Atlantic and West Africa in boreal summer. Int. J. Climateatol, 20, 1415–1430.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Herbers, H., 1999: Wasser als kritischer Faktor der Ernährungssicherheit. Über die Bedeutung eines essentiellen Lebensmittels. Erdkunde, 53, 35–47.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs et al., eds., 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hulme, M., R. Doherty, T. Ngara et al., 2001: African climate change: 1900–2100. Climate Res., 17, 145–168.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jacob, D., 2001: A note to the simulation of the annual and interannual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorol Atmos. Phys., 77, 61–74.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Janicot, S., S. Trzaska, and I. Poccard, 2001: Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations. Clim. Dynam., 18, 303–320.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins, G. S., A. Kamga, A. Garba et al., 2002: Investigating the West African climate system using global/regional climate models. Bull. Am. Meteorol Soc., 83, 583–595.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jones, C., N. Mahowald, and C. Luo, 2003: The role of Easterly Waves on African desert dust transport. J. Climate, 16, 3617–3628.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Knippertz, P., M. Christoph, and P. Speth, 2003: Long-term precipitation variability in Morocco and the link to the large-scale circulation in recent and future climate. Meteor Atmos. Phys., 83, 67–88.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kutzbach, J. E. and Z. Liu, 1997: Response of the African monsoon to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks in the middle Holocene. Science, 278, 440–443.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Latif, M. and A. Grötzner, 2000: The equatorial Atlantic oscillation and its response to ENSO. Clim. Dynam., 16, 213–218.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Long, M., D. Entekhabi, and S. E. Nicholson, 2000: Interannual variability in rainfall, water vapor flux, and vertical motion over West Africa. J. Climate, 13, 3827–3841.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mo, K., G. D. Bell, and W. M. Thiaw, 2001: Impact of sea surface temperature anomalies on the Atlantic tropical storm activity and West African rainfall. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 3477–3496.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson, S. E., 2001: Climatic and enviromental change in Africa during the last two centuries. Climate Res., 17, 123–144.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson, S. E., B. Some, and B. Kone, 2000: An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa, including the rainy season of the 1997 El Niño and the 1998 La Ni/∼na years. J. Climate, 13, 2628–2640.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth, H., 2004: Key factors in African climate change evaluated by a regional climate model. Erdkunde, 58, 290–315.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth, H. and J. Feichter, 2006: Greenhouse-gas versus aerosol forcing and African climate response. Clim. Dynam., 26, 35–54.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth, H. and P. Friederichs, 2004: Seasonality and timescales in the relationship between global SST and African rainfall. Clim. Dynam., 23, 815–837.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth, H. and A. Hense, 2004: SST versus climate change signals in West African rainfall: 20th century variations and future projections. Clim Change, 65, 179–208.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth, H. and A. Hense, 2005: Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions. Meteorol Z, 14, 329–347.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth, H. and J. Stuck, 2004: The West African dipole in rainfall and its forcing mechanisms in global and regional climate models. Mausam, 55, 561–582.

    Google Scholar 

  • Paeth, H., K. Born, R. Podzun, and D. Jacob, 2005: Regional dynamical downscaling over West Africa: model evaluation and comparison of wet and dry years. Meteorol Z, 14, 349–367.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Richter, R. E., 2000: Umweltflüchtlinge in Westafrika. Geogr. Rundschau, 52, 12–17.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rodriguez-Fonseca, B. and M. de Castro, 2002: On the connection between winter anomalous precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula and North West Africa and the summer subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperature. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1863, doi:10.1029/2001GL014421.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rotstayn, L. D. and U. Lohmann, 2002: Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol effect. J. Climate, 15, 2103–2116.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saha, K. and S. Saha, 2001: African monsoons. Part I: Climatological structure and circulation. Mausam, 52, 479–510.

    Google Scholar 

  • Saravanan, R. and P. Chang, 2000: Interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 13, 2177–2194.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schnitzler, K. G., W. Knorr, M. Latif et al., 2001: Vegetation feedback on Sahelian rainfall variability in a coupled climate land-vegetation model. Max-Planck-Inst. f. Meteor., Report No. 329, Hamburg.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schulz, R., 2001: Neuere Trends der Weltbevölkerungsentwicklung. Geogr. Rundschau, 53, 4–9.

    Google Scholar 

  • Semazzi, F. H. M. and Y. Song, 2001: A GCM study of climate change induced by deforestation in Africa. Climate Res., 17, 169–182.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stier, P., J. Feichter, S. Kinne et al., 2005: The aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 1125–1156.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sturm, H. J., 1999: Weidewirtschaft in Westafrika. Geogr. Rundschau, 51, 269–274.

    Google Scholar 

  • Texier, D., N. de Noblet, S. P. Harrison et al., 1997: Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulations for 6000 years BP and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa. Clim. Dynam., 13, 865–882.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Texier, D., N. de Noblet, and P. Braconnot, 2000: Sensitivity of the African and Asian monsoons to mid-holocene insolation and data-inferred surface changes. J. Cim., 13, 164–181.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNEP, 2003: Global environmental outlook 3. http://www.grida.no/geo/geo3/english/.

  • Wang, G. and A. B. Eltahir, 2000: Ecosystem dynamics and the Sahel drought. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 795–798.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang, G., E. A. B. Eltahir, J. A. Foley et al., 2004: Decadal variability of rainfall in the Sahel: results from the coupled GENESIS-IBIS atmosphere-biosphere model. Clim. Dynam., 22, 625–637.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ward, M. N., 1998: Diagnosis and short-lead time prediction of summer rainfall in tropical North Africa at interannual and multi-decadal time scales. J. Climate, 11, 3167–3191.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zeng, N., K. Hales, and J. D. Neelin, 2002: Nonlinear dynamics in a coupled vegetation-atmosphere system and implications for desert-forest gradient. J. Climate, 15, 3474–3487.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geographical Institute, University of Würzburg, Am Hubland, Würzburg, 97074, Germany

    H. Paeth

Authors
  1. H. Paeth
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland

    Stefan Brönnimann  & Tracy Ewen  & 

  2. NCCR Climate and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research and Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Switzerland

    Jürg Luterbacher

  3. NOAA-ESRL, Boulder, CO, USA

    Henry F. Diaz

  4. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA

    Richard S. Stolarski

  5. ProClim, Bern, Switzerland

    Urs Neu

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2008 Springer Science + Business Media B.V

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Paeth, H. (2008). Human Activity and Climate Change in Africa. In: Brönnimann, S., Luterbacher, J., Ewen, T., Diaz, H., Stolarski, R., Neu, U. (eds) Climate Variability and Extremes during the Past 100 Years. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 33. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6766-2_14

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation