Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Predicting the effect of climate change on temperate shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake

  • Conference paper
Shallow Lakes in a Changing World

Part of the book series: Developments in Hydrobiology ((DIHY,volume 196))

Abstract

Global average surface temperatures are expected to rise by about 1.4-5.8°C from the present until the year 2100. This temperature increase will affect all ecosystems on earth. For shallow lakes-which can be either in a clear water or a turbid state-this climate change will expectedly negatively affect water transparency though the prediction is far from conclusive and experimental investigations elucidating the potential climatic effects on shallow lakes are still rare. The aim of this study was to further shape and sharpens hypotheses on the impact of climate change on shallow lakes by applying an existing and well-calibrated ecosystem model, PCLake. We focused on asymptotic model behaviour for a range of temperature and loading scenarios in a factorial design. We conclude that climate change will likely lead to decreased critical nutrient loadings. Combined with an expected increase in the external nutrient loading, this will increase the probability of a shift from a clear to a turbid state. As the model predicts a higher summer chlorophyll-a concentration, a stronger dominance of cyanobacteria during summer and a reduced Zooplankton abundance due to climate change, the turbid state itself is likely to become even more severe.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Adrian, R. & R. Deneke, 1996. Possible impact of mild winters on Zooplankton succession in eutrophic lakes of the Atlantic European area. Freshwater Biology 36: 757–770.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adrian, R., R. Deneke, U. Mischke, R. Stellmacher & P. Lederer, 1995. A long-term study of the Heiligensee (1975–1992). Evidence for effects of climatic change on the dynamics of eutrophied lake ecosystems. Archiv für Hydrobiologie 133: 315–337.

    Google Scholar 

  • Adrian, R., N. Walz, T. Hintze, S. Hoeg & R. Rusche, 1999. Effects of ice duration on plankton succession during spring in a shallow polymictic lake. Freshwater Biology 41: 621–632.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aldenberg, T., J. H. Janse & P. R. G. Kramer, 1995. Fitting the dynamic model PCLake to a multi-lake survey through Bayesian statistics. Ecological Modelling 78: 83–99.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Barko, J.W. & R. M. Smart, 1981. Comparative influences of light and temperature on the growth and metabolism of selected submersed fresh-water macrophytes. Ecological Monographs 51: 219–235.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dawidowicz, P., Z. M. Gliwicz & R. D. Gulati, 1988. Can Daphnia prevent a blue-green algal bloom in hypertrophic lakes? A laboratory test. Limnologica (Berlin) 19: 21–26.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drenner, R.W. & K. D. Hambright, 1999. Review: biomanipulation of fish assemblages as a lake restoration technique. Archiv für Hydrobiologie 146: 129–165.

    Google Scholar 

  • Elliott, J.A., S. J. Thackeray, C. Huntingford & R. G. Jones, 2005. Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes. Freshwater Biology 50: 1404–1411.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gerten, D. & R. Adrian, 2000. Climate-driven changes in spring plankton dynamics and the sensitivity of shallow polymictic lakes to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnology and Oceanography 45: 1058–1066.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gerten, D. & R. Adrian, 2001. Differences in the persistency of the North Atlantic Oscillation signal among lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 46: 448–455.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gerten, D. & R. Adrian, 2002 Effects of climate warming, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation on thermal conditions and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes. TheScientific WorldJournal 2: 586–606.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gliwicz, Z. M. & W. Lampert, 1990. Food thresholds in Daphnia species in the absence and presence of bluegreen filaments. Ecology 71: 691–702.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gulati, R. D., K. Siewertsen & G. Postema, 1982. The Zooplankton: its community structure, food and feeding, and role in the ecosystem of Lake Vechten. Hydrobiologia 95: 127–163.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gulati, R. D. & E. Van Donk, 2002. Lakes in the Netherlands, their origin, eutrophication and restoration: state-of-the-art review. Hydrobiologia 478: 73–106.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Houghton J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. Van der Linden & D. Xiaosu (eds), 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge: 944 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Howard, A. & M. P. Easthope, 2002. Application of a model to predict cyanobacterial growth patterns in response to climatic change at Farmoor Reservoir, Oxfordshire, UK. Science of the Total Environment 282: 459–469.

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Janse, J.H., 1997. A model of nutrient dynamics in shallow lakes in relation to multiple stable states. Hydrobiologia 342/343: l18.

    Google Scholar 

  • Janse, J. H., 2005. Model studies on the eutrophication of shallow lakes and ditches, Wageningen University.

    Google Scholar 

  • Janse, J. H., T. Aldenberg & P. R. G. Kramer, 1992. A mathematical model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Loosdrecht and simulation of additional measures. Hydrobiologia 233: 119–136.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Janse, J. H. & L. Van Liere, 1995a. Modelling nutrient cycles in relation to food-web structure in a biomanipulated shallow lake. Netherlands Journal of Aquatic Ecology 29: 67–79.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Janse, J.H. & L. Van Liere, 1995b. PCLake ⊕ modeling tool for the evaluation of lake restoration scenarios. Water Science and Technology 31: 371–374.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Jensen, H. S. & F. O. Andersen, 1992. Importance of temperature, nitrate, and pH for phosphate release from aerobic sediments of four shallow, eutrophic lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 37: 577–589.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jeppesen, E., J. P. Jensen, M. Sondergaard, K. S. Hansen, P. H. Moller, H. U. Rasmussen, V. Norby & S. E. Larsen, 2003. Does resuspension prevent a shift to a clear state in shallow lakes during reoligotrophication? Limnology and Oceanography 48: 1913–1919.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeppesen, E., M. Sondergaard, E. Mortensen, P. Kristen-sen, B. Riemann, H. J. Jensen, J. P. Müller, O. Sortkjaer, J. P. Jensen, K. Christoffersen, S. Bosselmann & E. Dall, 1990. Fish manipulation as a lake restoration tool in shallow, eutrophic temperate lakes 1: cross-analysis of three Danish case studies. Hydrobiologia 200/201: 205–218.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kilham, S. S., E. C. Theriot & S. C. Fritz, 1996. Linking planktonic diatoms and climate change in the large lakes of the Yellowstone ecosystem using resource theory. Limnology and Oceanography 41: 1052–1062.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Liboriussen, L., F. Landkildehus, M. Meerhoff, M. E. Bramm, M. Sondergaard, K. Christoffersen, K. Richardson, T. L. Lauridsen & E. Jeppesen, 2005. Global warming: design of a flow-through shallow lake mesocosm climate experiment. Limnology and Oceanography Methods 3: 1–9.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liikanen, A., T. Murtoniemi, H. Tanskanen, T. Vaisanen & P. J. Martikainen, 2002. Effects of temperature and oxygen availability on greenhouse gas and nutrient dynamics in sediment of a eutrophic mid-boreal lake. Biogeochemistry 59: 269–286.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Livingstone, D. M. & M. T. Dokulil, 2001. Eighty years of spatially coherent Austrian lake surface temperatures and their relationship to regional air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnology and Oceanography 46: 1220–1227.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKee, D., D. Atkinson, S. Collings, J. Eaton, I. Harvey, T. Heyes, K. Hatton, D. Wilson & B. Moss, 2002a. Macro-zooplankter responses to simulated climate warming in experimental freshwater microcosms. Freshwater Biology 47: 1557–1570.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKee, D., D. Atkinson, S. E. Collings, J. W. Eaton, A. B. Gill, I. Harvey, K. Hatton, T. Heyes, D. Wilson & B. Moss, 2003. Response of freshwater microcosm communities to nutrients, fish, and elevated temperature during winter and summer. Limnology and Oceanography 48: 707–722.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKee, D., K. Hatton, J. W. Eaton, D. Atkinson, A. Atherton, I. Harvey & B. Moss, 2002b. Effects of simulated climate warming on macrophytes in freshwater microcosm communities. Aquatic Botany 74: 71–83.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mehner, T., H. Dörner & H. Schultz, 1998. Factors determining the year-class strength of age-0 Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis, L.) in a biomanipulated reservoir. Archiv of Fisheries and Marine Research 46: 241–251.

    Google Scholar 

  • Moed, J. R. & H. L. Hoogveld, 1982. The algal periodicity in Tjeukemeer during 1968–1978. Hydrobiologia 95: 223–224.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mooij, W. M., 1996. Variation in abundance and survival of fish larvae in shallow eutrophic lake Tjeukemeer. Environmental Biology of Fishes 46: 265–279.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mooij, W. M., S. Hülsmann, L. N. De Senerpont Domis, B. A. Nolet, P. L. E. Bodelier, P. C. M. Boers, M. L. Dionisio Pires, H. J. Gons, B. W. Ibelings, R. Noordhuis, R. Portielje, K. Wolfstein & E. H. R. R. Lammens, 2005. The impact of climate change on lakes in the Netherlands: a review. Aquatic Ecology 39: 381–400.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mooij, W. M. & E. H. Van Nes, 1998. Statistical analysis of the somatic growth rate of 0+ fish in relation to temperature under natural conditions. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 55: 451–458.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moss, B., D. McKee, D. Atkinson, S. E. Collings, J. W. Eaton, A. B. Gill, I. Harvey, K. Hatton, T. Heyes & D. Wilson, 2003. How important is climate? Effects of warming, nutrient addition and fish on phytoplankton in shallow lake microcosms. Journal of Applied Ecology 40: 782–792.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nyberg, P., E. Bergstrand, E. Degerman & O. Enderlein, 2001. Recruitment of pelagic fish in an unstable climate: studies in Sweden’s four largest lakes. AMBIO 30: 559–564.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Pace, M. L., 1984. Zooplankton community structure, but not biomass, influences the phosphorus-chlorophyll a relationship. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 41: 1089–1096.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Parmesan, C. & G. Yohe, 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37–42.

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Porter, K. G., P. A. Saunders, K. A. Haberyan, A. E. Macubbin, T. R. Jacobsen & R. E. Hodson, 1996. Annual cycle of autotrophic and heterotrophic production in a small, monomictic Piedmont lake (Lake Oglethorpe): analog for the effects of climatic warming on dimictic lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 41: 1041–1051.

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Reeders, H. H., P. C. M. Boers, D. T. Van der Molen & T. H. Heimerhorst, 1998. Cyanobacterial dominance in the lakes Veluwemeer and Wolderwijd, The Netherlands. Water Science and Technology 37: 85–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rooney, N. & J. Kalff, 2000. Inter-annual variation in submerged macrophyte community biomass and distribution: the influence of temperature and lake morphometry. Aquatic Botany 68: 321–335.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheffer, M., 1990. Multiplicity of stable states in freshwater systems. Hydrobiologia 200/201: 475–486.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheffer, M., 1998. Ecology of Shallow Lakes. Chapman & Hall, London. 357 pp.

    Google Scholar 

  • Scheffer, M., S. H. Hosper, M. L. Meijer, B. Moss & E. Jeppesen, 1993. Alternative equilibria in shallow lakes. Trends in Ecology & Evolution 8: 275–279.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheffer, M., S. Rinaldi, Y. A. Kuznetsov & E. H. Van Nes, 1997. Seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae explained as a periodically forced predator-prey system. Oikos 80: 519–532.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Scheffer, M., D. Straile, E. H. Van Nes & H. Hosper, 2001. Climatic warming causes regime shifts in lake food webs. Limnology and Oceanography 46: 1780–1783.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schelske, C. L., H. J. Carrick & F. J. Aldridge, 1995. Can wind-induced resuspension of meroplankton affect phytoplankton dynamics? Journal of the North American Benthological Society 14: 616–630.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sommer, U., Z. M. Gliwicz, W. Lampert & A. Duncan, 1986. The PEG-model of seasonal succession of planktonic events in fresh waters. Archiv für Hydrobiologie 106: 433–471.

    Google Scholar 

  • Straile, D., 2000. Meteorological forcing of plankton dynamics in a large and deep continental European lake. Oecologia 122: 44–50.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Straile, D. & R. Adrian, 2000. The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes-two variations on a general theme. Global Change Biology 6: 663–670.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Timms, R. M. & B. Moss, 1984. Prevention of growth of potentially dense phytoplankton population by zoo-plankton grazing in the presence of zooplanktivorous fish, in a shallow wetland ecosystem. Limnology and Oceanography 29: 472–486.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Van de Bund, W. J., S. Romo, M. J. Villena, M. Valentin, E. Van Donk, E. Vicente, K. Vakkilainen, M. Svensson, D. Stephen, A. Stahl-Delbanco, J. Rueda, B. Moss, M. R. Miracle, T. Kairesalo, L. A. Hansson, J. Hietala, M. Gyllstrom, J. Goma, P. Garcia, M. Fernandez-Alaez, C. Fernandez-Alaez, C. Ferriol, S. E. Collings, E. Becares, D. M. Balayla & T. Alfonso, 2004. Responses of phytoplankton to fish predation and nutrient loading in shallow lakes: a pan-European mesocosm experiment. Freshwater Biology 49: 1608–1618.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Van de Bund, W. J. & E. Van Donk, 2002. Short-term and long-term effects of zooplanktivorous fish removal in a shallow lake: a synthesis of 15 years of data from Lake Zwemlust. Freshwater Biology 47: 2380–2387.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weyhenmeyer, G. A., T. Blenckner & K. Pettersson, 1999. Changes of the plankton spring outburst related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnology and Oceanography 44: 1788–1792.

    Google Scholar 

  • Winder, M. & D. E. Schindler, 2004. Climate change uncouples trophic interactions in an aquatic ecosystem. Ecology 85: 2100–2106.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Limnology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology, Rijksstraatweg 6, 3631 AC, Nieuwersluis, The Netherlands

    W. M. Mooij, L. N. De Senerpont Domis & B. W. Ibelings

  2. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH, Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    J. H. Janse

  3. Institute of Hydrobiology, Dresden University of Technology, 01062, Dresden, Germany

    S. Hülsmann

Authors
  1. W. M. Mooij
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. J. H. Janse
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. L. N. De Senerpont Domis
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. S. Hülsmann
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. B. W. Ibelings
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. NIOO/Centre of Limnology, Rijksstraatweg 6, 3631 AC, Nieuwersluis, The Netherlands

    Ramesh D. Gulati  & Ellen Van Donk  & 

  2. RIZA, PO Box 17, 8200 AA, Lelystad, The Netherlands

    Eddy Lammens

  3. Department of Applied Ecology and Environmental Biology, Laboratory of Environmental Toxicology and Aquatic Ecology, Ghent University, Faculty of Bioscience Engineering, J. Plateaustraat 22, B-9000, Gent, Belgium

    Niels De Pauw

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

About this paper

Cite this paper

Mooij, W.M., Janse, J.H., De Senerpont Domis, L.N., Hülsmann, S., Ibelings, B.W. (2007). Predicting the effect of climate change on temperate shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake. In: Gulati, R.D., Lammens, E., De Pauw, N., Van Donk, E. (eds) Shallow Lakes in a Changing World. Developments in Hydrobiology, vol 196. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6399-2_40

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation