Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

North American Pulp & Paper Model (NAPAP)

  • Chapter
Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development

Part of the book series: Managing Forest Ecosystems ((MAFE,volume 14))

This chapter describes the development and structure of the NAPAP model and compares it to other forest sector models. The NAPAP model was based on PELPS and adapted to describe paper and paperboard product demand, pulpwood and recovered paper supply, and production capacity and technology, with spatially dynamic market equilibria. We describe how the model predicts paper and paperboard product demands and trade flows over time, concurrently with regional capacity changes and corresponding shifts in process technology based on Tobin’s q theory of capital investment. We describe how the model was tested and calibrated and then provide examples of applications.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Abe M (1973) Dynamic microeconomic models of production, investment, and technological change of the United States and Japanese iron and steel industries. In: Judge GG, Takayama T (eds) Studies in economic planning over space and time. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp189-196

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams DM, Haynes RW (1980) The 1980 softwood timber assessment market model: structure, projections, and policy simulation. Forest Sci Mono 22

    Google Scholar 

  • Adams DM, Haynes RW (1996) The 1993 timber assessment market model: structure, projections and policy simulations. Gen Tech Rep PNW-368. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR

    Google Scholar 

  • American Forest & Paper Association [AF&PA] (1993-2006) Statistics of paper, paperboard and wood pulp, Washington DC, 1993-2006 issues [previously API]

    Google Scholar 

  • American Paper Institute [API] (1970-1992) Statistics of paper, paperboard and wood pulp, API, New York, 1970-1992 issues [later issues by AF&PA]

    Google Scholar 

  • Berard P (1977) The changing structure of the paper industry. Translated by RAF Whitbread. Presses Universitaires De Grenoble, Grenoble, France

    Google Scholar 

  • Buongiorno J (1981) Outline of a world model of the pulp and paper industry. Paper presented at the meeting on the Analysis of World Trade in Forest Products, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 2-4 June 1981

    Google Scholar 

  • Buongiorno J (1996) Forest sector modeling: a synthesis of econometrics, mathematical programming, and systems dynamics methods. Int J Forecasting 12: 329-343

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Buongiorno J, Gilless JK (1983a) A model of international trade of forest products (GTM-1). Working Pap WP-83-63, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

    Google Scholar 

  • Buongiorno J, Gilless JK (1983b) Concepts used in a regionalized model of pulp and paper production and trade. In: Seppala R, Row C, Morgan A (eds) Forest sector models. AB Academic, Berkhamsted, UK, pp57-90

    Google Scholar 

  • Buongiorno J, Gilless JK (1984) A model of international trade of forest products, with an application to newsprint. J World Forest Resour Manage 1(1):65-80

    Google Scholar 

  • Buongiorno J, Zhu S, Zhang D, Turner J, Tomberlin D (2003) The global forest products model: structure, estimation, and applications. Academic Press, San Diego, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Calmels P, Buongiorno J, Zhang D (1990) PELPS II: a microcomputer priceendogenous linear programming system for economic modeling. Rep R3477. University of Wisconsin-Madison, College of Agric and Life Sciences, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Canadian Pulp and Paper Association [CPPA] (1992) Reference tables, 46th edn. Canadian Pulp and Paper Association, Montreal, Quebec

    Google Scholar 

  • Day RH (1973) Recursive programming models: a brief introduction. In: Judge GG, Takayama T (eds) Studies in economic planning over space and time: contributions to economic analysis. American Elsevier, New York, pp 329-344

    Google Scholar 

  • Duloy JH, Norton RD (1975) Prices and incomes in linear programming models. Am J Agr Econ 57(4):591-600

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Forest Resources Association (2006) Annual pulpwood statistics summary report 2001-2005 (and earlier editions). Forest Resources Association, Rockville, MD

    Google Scholar 

  • Forrester JW (1980) Information sources for modeling the National economy. J Am Stat Assoc 75(371):555-574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fox KA (1953) A spatial equilibrium model of the livestock feed economy in the United States. Econometrica 21(4):547-566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gilless JK (1983) A model of the pulp and paper sector. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilless JK, Buongiorno J (1985) PELPS: price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling. Rep R3329. University of Wisconsin-Madison, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Gilless JK, Buongiorno J (1987) PAPYRUS: a model of the North American pulp and paper industry. For Sci Mono 28, Supplement to Forest Sci 33(1), Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, MD

    Google Scholar 

  • Gold B (1977) Research, technological change, and economic analysis. Lexington Books, Lexington, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Guthrie JA (1972) An economic analysis of the pulp and paper industry. Washington State University Press, Pullman, WA

    Google Scholar 

  • Hair D (1967) Use of regression equations for projecting trends in demand for paper and board. Forest Resour Rep 18, GPO, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Haynes RW (1989) Effects of waste paper recycling on the forest sector. Resour Recycling 8(7):44-46

    Google Scholar 

  • Haynes RW (coord) (1990) An analysis of the timber situation in the United States: 1989-2040. Gen Tech Rep RM-199. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, CO

    Google Scholar 

  • Haynes RW (tech coord) (2003) An analysis of the timber situation in the United States: 1952 to 2050. Gen Tech Rep PNW-GTR-560. USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR

    Google Scholar 

  • Haynes RW, Holley L, King RA (1978) A recursive spatial equilibrium model of the softwood timber sector. Tech Rep No. 57. North Carolina State University, School of Forest Resources, Raleigh, NC

    Google Scholar 

  • Howard JL, Ince PJ, Durbak I, Lange WJ (1988) Modeling technology change and fiber consumption in the U.S. pulp and paper industry. In: Abt R (ed) Proceedings of the 1988 Southern forest economists workshop, Orlando, Florida, May 1988. Department of Forestry, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, pp 211-219

    Google Scholar 

  • Howard JL, Skog K, Ince PJ (2002) Projecting recovered paper supply in the United States. Proceedings of the 2001 Society of American Foresters national convention, Denver, Colorado, September 2001. Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, MD, pp464-465

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (1985) Pulp and paper science may change technology and increase use of Southern hardwoods. In: Proceedings of Southern forest economics workers conference Athens, Georgia, March 1985. University of Georgia, Athens, GA, pp71-85

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (1986) Technology development for increased use of hardwoods. In: Proceedings of fourth biennial southern silvicultural research conference, Atlanta, Georgia, Nov 1986. Gen Tech Rep SE-42. USDA Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station, Asheville, NC, pp3-7

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (1989) Projected pulpwood consumption in the United States, 2000-2040: implications for timber management? In: Proceedings of the Society of American Foresters 1989 Convention, Spokane, Washington, September 1989. Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, MD, 1990:364-369

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (1990) Timber market implications of accelerated wastepaper recycling in the 1990s. In: Proceedings of the Society of American Foresters 1990 Convention, Washington DC, July 1990. Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, MD, pp438-445

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (1994a) Recycling and long-range timber outlook. Gen Tech Rep RM-242. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, CO

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (1994b) Recycling and long-range timber outlook: background research report 1993 RPA assessment update. Res Pap FPL-RP-534. USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (1999a) Long-range outlook for U.S. paper and paperboard demand, technology, and fiber supply-demand equilibria. In: Proceedings of the Society of American Foresters 1998 national convention. Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, MD, pp330-343

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (1999b) Global cycle changes the rules for U.S. pulp and paper. PIMA’s Papermaker, December, pp37-42

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ (2002) U.S. fiber supply: steady and secure. In: Solutions for people, processes and paper. TAPPI Press, June, pp40-44

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ, Li X, Zhou M, Buongiorno J, Reuter M (2002) United States paper, paperboard, and market pulp capacity trends by process and location, 1970-2000. Res Pap FPL-RP-602. USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Ince PJ, Skog KE, Spelter H, Durbak IA, Howard JL (1987) Modeling technological change in wood products processing. In: Cardellichio PA, Adams DM, Haynes RW (eds) Forest sector and trade models: theory and applications. Proceedings of an international symposium, Seattle, Washington DC, November 1987. CINTRAFOR, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, pp257-265

    Google Scholar 

  • Judge GG, Wallace TD (1958) Estimation of spatial price equilibrium models. J Farm Econ 40(4):801-820

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kallio M, Dykstra DP, Binkley CS (eds) (1987) The global forest sector: an analytical perspective. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Kennedy M (1974) An economic mode of the world oil market. Bell J Econ 5:540-577

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Landau R, Rosenberg N (eds) (1986) The positive sum strategy: harnessing technology for economic growth. National Academy Press, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Lebow PK, Spelter H, Ince PJ (2003) FPL-PELPS, a price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling, supplement to PELPS III, version 1.1. Res Pap FPL-RP-614. USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Lonner G (1991) Modelling the Swedish forest sector. Rep No. 20. The Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department of Forest-Industry-Market Studies (SIMS), Uppsala, Sweden

    Google Scholar 

  • Manne AS (1979) Energy policy modeling: a survey. Oper Res 27(1):1-35

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Manne AS (1981) ETA-MACRO: a user’s guide. Prepared for Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, CA. Report EPRI EA-1724 (Interim Report). Stanford University, Department of Operations Research, Stanford, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Mansfield E (1968) The economics of technological change. Norton, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • McCarl BA, Spreen TH (1980) Price endogenous mathematical programming as a tool for sector analysis. Am J Agr Econ 62(1):87-102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McKillop (1967) Supply and demand for forest products, an econometric study. Hilgardia 38:1-132

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller Freeman (1990) Pulp & paper North American factbook. Miller Freeman, San Francisco, CA

    Google Scholar 

  • Naylor TH (1972) Policy simulation experiments with macro-econometric models: the state of the art. Am J Agr Econ 52:263-271

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson JR (1973) An interregional recursive programming model of the United States iron and steel industry. In: Judge GG, Takayama T (eds) Studies in economic planning over space and time. North-Holland, Amsterdam, pp197-212

    Google Scholar 

  • Pilati DA, Chang J, Sparrow FT, Howe SO, Balzer C, McBreen B (1980) A process model of the U.S. pulp and paper industry. Economic Analysis Division, National Center for Analysis of Energy Systems, Department of Energy and Environment, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Associated Universities, under contract No. DE-AC02-76CH00016 with the U.S. Department of Energy. Prepared for Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, and the Electric Power Research Institute. Report No. BNL 51142, UC-95f. Available from National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg N (1976) Perspectives on technology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenberg N (1982) Inside the black box: technology and economics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Rykiel EJ (1996) Testing ecological models: the meaning of validation. Ecol Model 90:229-244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Samuelson PA (1952) Spatial price equilibrium and linear programming. Am Econ Rev 42(3):283-303

    Google Scholar 

  • Schmookler J (1966) Invention and economic growth. University Press, Cambridge, MA

    Google Scholar 

  • Schrader LF, King GA (1962) Regional location of beef cattle feeding. J Farm Econ 44(1):68-81

    Google Scholar 

  • Schumpeter J (1943) The process of creative destruction. In: Socialism, capitalism and democracy. Allen & Unwin, London, pp81-86

    Google Scholar 

  • Strange JG (1977) The paper industry, a clinical study. Graphic Communications Center, Appleton, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Takayama T, Judge GG (1964a) An interregional activity analysis model of the agriculture sector. J Farm Econ 46(2):349-365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takayama T, Judge GG (1964b) Equilibrium among spatially separated markets: a reformulation. Econometrica 32(4):510-524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takayama T, Judge GG (1970) Alternative spatial equilibrium models. J Regional Sci 10:1-12

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Takayama T, Judge GG (1971) Spatial and temporal price and allocation models. North-Holland, Amsterdam

    Google Scholar 

  • Tobin (1969) A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. J Money Credit Bank 1:15-29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tramel TE, Seale AD Jr (1959) Reactive programming of supply and demand relationships—application to fresh vegetables. J Farm Econ 41(5):1012-1022

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service [USDA FS] (1958) Timber resources for America’s future. Forest Resour Rep 14. GPO, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service [USDA FS] (1982) An analysis of the timber situation in the United States 1952-2030. Forest Resour Rep 23. GPO, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service [USDA FS] (1989) RPA assessment of the forest and rangeland situation in the United States, 1989. Forest Resour Rep 26. GPO, Washington DC

    Google Scholar 

  • Whiteman A (1991) The supply and demand for wood in the United Kingdom. Occasional Pap 29. Forestry Commission, Edinburgh, UK

    Google Scholar 

  • Yaron D (1967) Incorporation of income effects into mathematical programming models. Metroeconomica 19(3):141-164

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Buongiorno J (1993) Capacity changes in the U.S. paper and paperboard industries: q theory and empirical models. Can J Forest Res 23:72-80

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Buongiorno J, Calmels P (1991) PELPS II PLUS: A microcomputer price-endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling. Staff Pap Series No. 41, Department of Forestry, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Buongiorno J, Ince P (1993) PELPS III: a microcomputer price endogenous linear programming system for economic modeling: version 1.0. Res Pap FPL-RP-526. USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang D, Buongiorno J, Ince P (1996) A recursive linear programming analysis of the future of the pulp and paper industry in the United States: changes in supplies and demands, and the effects of recycling. Ann Oper Res 68:109-139

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Y (1995) Demand for paper and paperboard products in the United States: econometric models and forecasts. Ph.D. dissertation. University of WisconsinMadison, Madison, WI

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. USDA Forest Service, Forest Products Laboratory, One Gifford Pinchot Drive, 53726-2398, Madison, WI, USA

    Peter J. Ince

  2. Department of Forest Ecology and Management, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1630 Linden Drive, 53706, Madison, WI, USA

    Joseph Buongiorno

Authors
  1. Peter J. Ince
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Joseph Buongiorno
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Oregon State University, 97331, Corvallis, OR, USA

    Darius M. Adams

  2. Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3890, 97209, Portland, OR, USA

    Richard W. Haynes

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2007 Springer

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Ince, P.J., Buongiorno, J. (2007). North American Pulp & Paper Model (NAPAP). In: Adams, D.M., Haynes, R.W. (eds) Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development. Managing Forest Ecosystems, vol 14. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6309-1_4

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation