The base case projection described in Chapter 9 envisions significant future expansion in private timber harvest based in part on growing investment in timber management, primarily in the South. Is this a reasonable expectation, and how important are these investment inputs in shaping the projected future? Historical data on management inputs are limited. Planting and plantation area data suggest a fairly clear trend of intensifying management on forest industry lands in the South and Pacific Northwest West. The picture is less clear for nonindustrial private owners, although in the South this group’s inventory and harvest have risen steadily since the late 1950s. Simulations examine the impact of alternative investment assumptions on the projections, considering both an extreme case of no future shifts in types or management intensity classes and a case freezing only plantation establishment in the South.
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Adams, D.M., Mills, J.R., Alig, R.J. (2007). The Role of Private Management Investment in Long-Term Supply. In: Adams, D.M., Haynes, R.W. (eds) Resource and Market Projections for Forest Policy Development. Managing Forest Ecosystems, vol 14. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6309-1_12
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