The historical records for Africa show warming of approximately 0.7°C over most of the continent during the twentieth century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its Third Assessment Report (2001) recorded that global warming of 1.4 to 5.8°C can be expected over the coming century. Malaria is the most climate sensitive vector-borne disease, affecting most of the African population. Both global warming and increased climate variability can increase malaria transmission. It is the areas where transmission is currently low, such as the highlands, that are most affected. In these areas protective genetic polymorphisms are infrequent, and immunity levels are low so that all ages are vulnerable.
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Githeko, A.K. (2007). Malaria, Climate Change and Possible Impacts on Populations in Africa. In: Caraël, M., Glynn, J.R. (eds) HIV, Resurgent Infections and Population Change in Africa. International Studies in Population, vol 6. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6174-5_4
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