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Impact of HIV on Mortality in Southern Africa: Evidence from Demographic Surveillance

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HIV, Resurgent Infections and Population Change in Africa

Part of the book series: International Studies in Population ((ISIP,volume 6))

This analysis examines recent increases in adult mortality resulting from HIV/AIDS in several Southern Africa populations. It assesses whether the populations share a common age pattern of mortality increase and compares their experience with an existing model age pattern of AIDS mortality in Africa. The data come from civil registration of deaths in South Africa and Zimbabwe, from two localised demographic surveillance systems based in South Africa, and from parish registers maintained by the Evangelical Lutheran Church in north-western Namibia. Principal components analysis is used to represent the variation in age-specific mortality across the schedules in terms of a few variables. Two components account for most of the variation. The first of these appears to represent background mortality and the second AIDS mortality. The age pattern of AIDS mortality is similar in all these Southern African populations. Mortality has risen between ages 25 and 65 for adult men, with the greatest rises occurring at ages 35-44 years. For women, mortality increase generally extends from about 20 to 60 years, peaking among women in their thirties. In Namibia, however, slightly older women are affected. The typical age pattern of mortality increase in Southern Africa is rather like that in the INDEPTH Pattern 5 model life tables, which are derived largely from data on Tanzania. The similarities between the left-hand sides of the resulting “humps” in the mortality schedules is particularly close. However, AIDS mortality among middle-aged men and women may be higher in Southern Africa than in the INDEPTH models. Although the age pattern of AIDS mortality differs across Africa, these differences may be small enough to permit development of a simple one-parameter model of the resulting bulge in age-specific mortality schedules that is adequate for modelling and projections.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 49-51 Bedford Square, WC1B 3DP, London, UK

    Ian M. Timæus

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  1. Ian M. Timæus
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Université Libre de Bruxelles, 50 avenue F D Roosevelt, B-1050, Brussels, Belgium

    Michel Caraël

  2. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, WC1E 7HT, London, UK

    Judith R. Glynn

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Timæus, I.M. (2007). Impact of HIV on Mortality in Southern Africa: Evidence from Demographic Surveillance. In: Caraël, M., Glynn, J.R. (eds) HIV, Resurgent Infections and Population Change in Africa. International Studies in Population, vol 6. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6174-5_12

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-6174-5_12

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-6172-1

  • Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-6174-5

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