Using Bayesian inference to manage uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessments in urban environments

  • E Chacón
  • Eduardo De Miguel
  • I Iribarren
Conference paper
Part of the Alliance For Global Sustainability Bookseries book series (AGSB, volume 12)

A Bayesian risk assessment to assess the potential adverse health effects of the exposure of children up to 6 years of age to urban trace elements in municipal playgrounds in Madrid was carried out. Bayesian statistical methods were used to adapt the distributions of some of the exposure variables taken from the literature to the specific exposure conditions found in the playgrounds of Madrid, Spain. The exposure variables borrowed from the scientific literature were revised with the population-specific data acquired through two limited surveys of 75 and 56 parents, respectively. The predictive distributions of two exposure variables, i.e., body weight and exposure frequency, were subsequently used to better define the distribution of risk estimates.

Keywords

Mercury Arsenic Aqua 101E 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
    USEPA (1996) Soil screening guidance: technical background document. US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response, EPA/540/R-95/128 onlineGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    CCME (1996) A protocol for the derivation of environmental and human health soil quality guidelines. Report no. CCME-EPC 101E. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment. Winnipeg, Manitota, CanadaGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    DEFRA (2002) The contaminated land exposure assessment (CLEA) model: technical basis and algorithms. R&D publication CLR 10. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. UK Environment AgencyGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    R Development Core Team (2004). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Viena. Also at http://www.R-project.org
  5. 5.
    USEPA. Integrated risk information system website: http://www.epa.gov/iris
  6. 6.
    USEPA (2001) Supplemental guidance for developping soil screening levels for superfind sites. OSWER 9355.4-24. Office of Solid Waste and Emergency Response. US Environmental Protection Agency. Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Concawe (1997) European oil industry guideline for risk-based assessment of contaminated sites. The Oil Companies European Organisation for Environment, Health and Safety, Report No. 2/97, BrusselsGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer 2007

Authors and Affiliations

  • E Chacón
    • 1
  • Eduardo De Miguel
    • 1
  • I Iribarren
    • 1
  1. 1.Grupo de Geoquímica AmbientalMadrid School of MinesSpain

Personalised recommendations