Abstract
In a step-by-step exercise — beginning at full greenhouse gas accounting (FGA) and ending with the temporal detection of emission changes — we specify the relevant physical scientific constraints on carrying out temporal signal detection under the Kyoto Protocol and identify a number of scientific uncertainties that economic experts must consider before dealing with the economic aspects of emissions and their uncertainties under the Protocol. In addition, we answer one of the crucial questions that economic experts might pose: how credible in scientific terms are tradable emissions permits? Our exercise is meant to provide a preliminary basis for economic experts to carry out useful emissions trading assessments and specify the validity of their assessments from the scientific point of view, that is, in the general context of a FGA-uncertainty-verification framework. Such a basis is currently missing.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Bergamaschi, P., Behrend, H., & Jol, A. (Eds.) (2004). Inverse modelling of national and EU greenhouse gas emission inventories. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
Dachuk, V. (2003). Looking behind the Kyoto protocol: Can integral transforms provide help in dealing with the verification issue? Interim Report IR-02-046 (pp. 24). Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-02-046.pdf.
FCCC (1998). Report of the conference of the parties on its third session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997, Addendum. Part two: Action taken by the conference of the parties at its third session, Document FCCC/CP/1997/7/Add.1, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop3/07a01.pdf.
FCCC (2002). Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Seventh Session, held at Marrakech from 29 October to 10 November 2001, Addendum. Part two: Action taken by the conference of the parties. Volume III,” Document FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.3, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop7/13a03.pdf.
FCCC (2004). Report of the conference of the parties on its ninth session, held at Milan from 1 to 12 December 2003, Addendum. Part two: Action taken by the conference of the parties at its ninth session, Document FCCC/CP/2003/6/Add.1, UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), Bonn, Germany. Available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop9/06a01.pdf.
Giles, J. (2002). When doubt is a sure thing. Nature, 418, 476–478.
Gillenwater M., Sussman F., & Cohen J. (2007). Practical applications of uncertainty analysis for national greenhouse gas inventories. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus (in press) doi:10.1007/s11267-006-9118-2.
Grassl, H., Kokott, J., Kulessa, M., Luther, J., Nuscheler, F., Sauerborn, R., et al. (2003). Climate protection strategies for the 21st century: Kyoto and beyond, Special Report 2003. Berlin, Germany: German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). Available at: http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_engl.html.
Gupta, J., Olsthoorn, X., & Rotenberg, E. (2003). The role of scientific uncertainty in compliance with the Kyoto protocol to the climate change convention. Environmental Science and Policy, 6, 475–486.
Gusti, M., & Jeda, W. (2002). Carbon management: A new dimension of future carbon research. Interim Report IR-02-006. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-02-006.pdf.
Horabik, J., & Nahorski, Z. (2004). Performance of the carbon market when accounting for uncertainties in GHG inventories. In Proceedings, International workshop on uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: Verification, compliance, and trading, held 24–25 September, Warsaw, Poland, pp. 126–134. Available at: http://www.ibspan.waw.pl/GHGUncert2004/schedule.htm.
Houghton, J. T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D. J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P. J., Dai, X., et al. (Eds.) (2001). Climate change 2001: The scientific basis. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. (Available at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm).
IPCC (1997)a, b, and c, Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 1: Greenhouse gas inventory reporting instructions, Volume 2: Greenhouse gas inventory workbook, Volume 3: Greenhouse gas inventory reference manual, IPCC/OECD/IEA, Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) working group I (WG I) Technical support unit, Bracknell, UK. Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs4.htm.
Jonas, M., & Nilsson, S. (2001). The Austrian carbon database (ACDb) Study — Overview. Interim Report IR-01-064, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, 131 pp. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/FOR/acdb.html.
Jonas, M., Nilsson, S., Bun, R., Dachuk, V., Gusti, M., Horabik, J., et al. (2004a). Preparatory signal detection for annex I countries under the Kyoto protocol — A lesson for the post-Kyoto policy process. Interim Report IR-04-024, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Available at:, http://www.iiasa. ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-04-024.pdf.
Jonas, M., Nilsson, S., Bun, R., Dachuk, V., Gusti, M., Horabik, J., et al. (2004b). Preparatory signal detection for the EU member states under the EU burden sharing — Advanced monitoring including uncertainty (1990–2001) Interim Report IR-04-029, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Available at: http:// www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-04-029.pdf.
Jonas, M., Nilsson, S., Bun, R., Dachuk, V., Gusti, M., Horabik, J., et al. (2004c). Preparatory signal detection for the EU member states under the EU burden sharing — Advanced monitoring including uncertainty (1990–2002). Interim Report IR-04-046, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-04-046.
Jonas, M., Nilsson, S., Obersteiner, M., Gluck, M., & Ermoliev, Y. (1999). Verification times underlying the Kyoto protocol: Global benchmark calculations. Interim Report IR-99-062, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Publications/Documents/IR-99-062.pdf.
Lauth, B., & Sareiter, J. (2002). Wissenschaftliche Erkenntnis. Eine ideengeschichtliche Einführung in die Wissenschaftstheorie. Paderborn, Germany: Mentis Verlag GmbH.
Mangino, J. M., Finn, S., & Scheehle, E. A. (2005). Using national emission inventories to determine anthropogenic emissions: Results. Limitations and advantages. In Symposium proceedings, fourth international symposium on non-CO 2 greenhouse gases, held 4–6 July in Utrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 239–247.
Merriam-Webster (1973). Webster’s new collegiate dictionary. Springfield, MA, USA: G. and C. Merriam Company.
Merriam-Webster (1997). Merriam Webster’s collegiate dictionary. Springfield, MA, USA: Merriam-Webster.
Moss, R. H., & Schneider, S. H. (2000). Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: recommendations to lead authors for more consistent assessment and reporting. In R. Pachauri, T. Taniguchi & K. Tanaka (Eds.), Guidance papers on the cross cutting issues of the third assessment report of the iPCC (pp. 33–51). Tokyo, Japan: Global Industrial and Social Progress Research Institute. (Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/xcutting.pdf).
Nahorski, Z., & Jeda, W. (2007). Processing national CO2 inventory emissions data and their total uncertainty estimates. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus (in press) doi:10.1007/s11267-006-9114-6.
Nahorski, Z., Jeda, W., & Jonas, M. (2003). Copingwithuncertainty in verification of the Kyoto obligations. In J. Studzinski, L. Drelichowski, & O. Hryniewicz (Eds.), Zastosowanai Informatyki i Analizy Systemowej w Zarzadzaniu (pp. 305–317). Warsaw, Poland: Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
Nahorski, Z., Horabik, J., & Jonas, M. (2007). Compliance and emissions trading under the Kyoto protocol: Rules for uncertain inventories. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus (in press) doi:10.1007/s11267-006-9112-8.
Nilsson, S., Jonas, M., & Obersteiner, M. (2002). COP 6: A healing shock? Climatic Change, 52(1–2), 25–28.
Nilsson, S., Jonas, M., Obersteiner, M., & Victor, D. G. (2001). Verification: The gorilla in the struggle to slow global warming. Forestry Chronicle, 77(3), 475–478.
Nilsson, S., Shvidenko, A., Jonas, M., McCallum, I., Thompson, A., & Balzter, H. (2007). Uncertainties of the regional terrestrial biota full carbon account: A systems analysis. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus (in press) doi:10.1007/s11267-006-9119-1.
Nilsson, S., Shvidenko, A., Stolbovoi, V., Gluck, M., Jonas, M., & Obersteiner, M. (2000). Full carbon account for Russia. Interim Report IR-00-021, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria. Available at: http://www.iiasa.ac.at /Publications/Documents/IR-00-021.pdf.
Penman, J., Kruger, D., Galbally, I., Hiraishi, T., Nyenzi, B., Emmanuel, S., et al. (Eds.) (2000). Good practice guidance and uncertainty management in national greenhouse gas inventories. Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/english/.
Penman, J., Gytarsky M., Hiraishi, T., Krug, T., Pipatti, D., Buendia, R. L., et al. (Eds.) (2003). Good practice guidance for land use, land-use change and forestry. Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. Available at: http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gpglulucf /gpglulucf.htm.
Shvidenko, A., & Nilsson, S. (2003). A synthesis of the impact of Russian forests on the global carbon budget for 1961–1998. Tellus, 55B, 391–415.
Schulze, E.-D., Valentini, R., & Sanz, M.-J. (2002). The long way from Kyoto to Marrakesh: Implications of the Kyoto protocol negotiations for global ecology. Global Change Biology, 8, 505–518.
Steffen, W., Noble, I., Canadell, J., Apps, M., Schulze, E.-D., Jarvis, P. G., et al. (1998). The terrestrial carbon cycle: Implications for the Kyoto protocol. Science, 280, 1393–1394.
Valentini, R., Dolman, A. J., Ciais, P., Schulze, E.-D., Freibauer, A., Schimel, D., et al. (2000). Accounting for carbon sinks in the biosphere, European perspective. Jena, Germany: CarboEurope European Office, Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry. (Listed under: http://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/public/carboeur/).
Vreuls, H. H. J. (2004). Uncertainty analysis of Dutch greenhouse gas emission data, a first qualitative and quantitative (TIER 2) analysis. In Proceedings, international workshop on uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: Verification, compliance and trading, held 24–25 September, Warsaw, Poland, 34–44. Available at: http://www.ibspan.waw.pl/GHGUncert2004/schedule.htm.
Watson, R. T., Noble, I. R., Bolin, B., Ravindranath, N. H., Verardo, D. J., & Dokken, D. J. (Eds.) (2000). Land use, land-use change, and forestry. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Available at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/land_use/.
Winiwarter, W. (2007). National greenhouse gas inventories: Understanding uncertainties versus potential for improving reliability. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus (in press) doi:10.1007/s11267-006-9117-3.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Springer Science + Business Media B.V.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Jonas, M., Nilsson, S. (2007). Prior to Economic Treatment of Emissions and Their Uncertainties Under the Kyoto Protocol: Scientific Uncertainties That Must Be Kept in Mind. In: Lieberman, D., Jonas, M., Nahorski, Z., Nilsson, S. (eds) Accounting for Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5930-8_7
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5930-8_7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-5929-2
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-5930-8
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)