INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELLING: APPLICATIONS OF THE IMPACT PATHWAY METHODOLOGY

Abstract

The impact pathway methodology integrates the input of different scientific disciplines within a consistent calculation framework as developed in the ExternE community. In this contribution, the methodology is used to evaluate the impact of two different land use development scenarios in terms of traffic flows, air quality, human exposure to air pollution and associated external costs. In the uncontrolled ‘urban-sprawl’ scenario, the urbanized area increases by almost 75%. For the ‘satellitecity’ scenario, where the urban development is controlled and directed to 5 five existing towns, the urban land use changes are increasing with 9%. A detailed analysis shows that the urban-sprawl scenario results in an exposure reduction of 5.7% due the movement of people from locations with high concentrations of particulate matter to locations with lower particulate matter concentrations. A reduction of 1.4% was found for the satellite-city scenario. The dominant driver of these exposure changes appears to be the population moving from the relatively polluted conurbation to less-polluted areas.