DEVELOPING TECHNICAL APPROACHES TO MAN-CAUSED RISK ESTIMATION FOR THE KRASNOYARSK REGION

Abstract

On the Krasnoyarsk region territory more than 80 kinds of emergency situations are possible. The natural ones are floods and disastrous freshets, forest fires, storms, snowfalls etc. The technogenic ones are nuclear contamination, big industrial accidents and fires, including the accidents with release of dangerous chemicals. Statistical risk analysis of emergency situations in the Krasnoyarsk region shows that the risk, connected with technogenic emergency situations, is on the level 25 deaths of people per year. The individual risk of death is about 2·10^-5 men per year, the traumatism risk about 6·10^-5 men per year, the risk of life conditions disturbance about 5·10^-3 men per year. The death risk for men under emergency situations is considerably larger than the level of admissible risk specified in the European standards. It is one of the highest in the Eastern Siberia and in all Russia. This article gives a generalized approach to the estimation of industrial risk for the Krasnoyarsk region.