Complex Health Risk Assessment and Analysis from Exposure to Ionizing Radiation, Chemical Contaminants and other Sources of Harm

Abstract

Needs in practical use of health risk (HR) assessment and analysis in Russia began to rise at the end of the 80s. They came from decision making on the radiation and social protection of population on the territories that suffered from Chernobyl and other radiation accidents, nuclear weapon tests, etc. The current ecological and public health protection regulation concerning the development of hazardous industries, especially the fuel-power complex, appeal also to HR analysis. In recent years, the growing need for HR assessment has been observed in the activity connected with utilization of nuclear submarines and rehabilitation of the corresponding contaminated territories. According to the preliminary results of HR assessment, chemical contamination can produce a higher impact on population and occupational workers' health than ionizing radiation (IR).

RRC “Kurchatov Institute” has been involved in the development of HR assessment tools (methodology, computer modules, and data bases) and the regulatory aspects of the use of HR analysis in decision making, case studies, etc. One of the directions of this development is to produce a common and transparent basis for HR assessment of different sources of risk and the basis for complex decision making.

A number of factors create the complexity of HR analysis and decision making. Series of different risk indices are needed in HR assessment and their aggregation continues to be an intractable problem. HRs competition principally makes nonlinear any decision-making task. The necessity for economic evaluation of population health damage in the decision making adds an additional dimension.

Current different approaches in risk assessment and establishing safety standards, developed for IR, chemicals, and other sources of harm, are analyzed. Some recommendations are given to produce a common approach. A specific individual risk index ℜ has been proposed for safety decision making: establishing safety standards and other levels of protective actions, comparison of various sources of risk, etc. The index ℜ is defined as the partial mathematical expectation of lost years of healthy life due to exposure during a year to a risk source considered. The more concrete determinations of this index for different risk sources derived from the common definition of ℜ are given. Generic safety standards (GSS) for the public and occupational workers have been suggested in terms of this index. Secondary specific safety standards have been derived from GSS for IR and a number of other risk sources including environmental chemical pollutants. Other general and derived levels for decision making have also been proposed. Recommendations are given on methods and criteria for comparison of various sources of risk. Some examples of risk comparison are demonstrated in the frame of different comparison tasks.