Abstract
Abstract- Predetermination (or statistical prediction) can be defined as the announcement of the physical and statistical characteristics of a future event non-precisely located in time. So, it is quite different from forecasting, whose objective is to give the precise date of occurrence of a specified physical event. Predetermination will then be inseparable of probabilistic concepts such as the probability of occurrence of a given event or, equivalently, of its return period. About floods, one will estimate, for a given river cross-section, whether the probability that the discharge would exceed a given threshold or, symmetrically, the discharge which has a given probability of exceedance. Such estimations, the spirit of which is definitively different of that of PMP/PMF (Probable Maximum Precipitation or Flood), enable a rational approach of socioeconomic
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HUBERT, P., TCHIGUIRINSKAIA, I., SCHERTZER, D., BENDJOUDI, H., LOVEJOY, S. (2006). PREDETERMINATION OF FLOODS. In: Vasiliev, O., van Gelder, P., Plate, E., Bolgov, M. (eds) Extreme Hydrological Events: New Concepts for Security. NATO Science Series, vol 78. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5741-0_14
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