Advertisement

Climate Change Scenarios and Their Potential Impact on World Agriculture

  • C. Wallace
  • D. Viner

The Earth’s climate system is a complex interaction of a number of components, such as the ocean, atmosphere, ice masses (cryosphere) and living organisms (biosphere). Although the system is ultimately driven by solar energy, changes to any of the components, and how they interact with each other, as well as variability in the solar radiation received, can lead to a change in climatic conditions. There are many causes of climate change which operate on a variety of time scales. On the largest time scales are mechanisms such as the Milankovitch-Croll effect and geological processes.

The Milankovitch-Croll effect concerns the characteristic of the Earth’s orbit around the sun and is thought to be responsible for governing the main glacial and interglacial episodes that are evident in the prehistoric climate record. Over a time scale of thousands of years variability is experienced in three important orbital characteristics.

Keywords

Climate System Climate Change Scenario Future Climate Change Tree Ring Width Medieval Warm Period 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Atkinson, T.C., Briffa, K.R., and Coope, G.R. (1987) Seasonal temperatures in Britain during the past 22, 000 years, reconstructed using beetle remains. Nature, 325: 587–592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Berger, A. and Loutre, M.F. (1991) Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years. Quaternary Science Reviews, 10: 297–317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Beersma, J.T. and Buishand, T.A. (1999) A simple test for equality of variances in monthly climate data. Journal of Climate, 12: 170–179.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brklacich, M., Bryant, C., Veenhof, B., and Beauchesne, A. (1997) Implications of global climatic change for Canadian agriculture: A review and appraisal of research 1984–1997. In: Chapter 4, Canada Country Study: Climate Impacts and Adaptation. Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.Google Scholar
  5. Harrison, P.A. and Butterfield, R.E. (1999) Effects of climate change on Europe-wide winter wheat and sunflower productivity. Climate Research, 7: 225–241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. IPCC (2001a) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  7. IPCC (2001b) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  8. IPCC (2001c) Climate Change 2001: Mitigation, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  9. Jones, P.D. (2002) Changes in climate and variability over the last 1000 years.Google Scholar
  10. In: Meteorology at the Millennium (Ed. R.P. Pearce), Academic Press, pp. 133–142.Google Scholar
  11. Lamb, H.H. (1977) Climate: Past, present and future. Volume 2. Meuthen, London.Google Scholar
  12. Menzel, A. and Fabian, P. (1999) Growing season extended in Europe. Nature, 397: 659.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Manabe, S. and Stouffer, R.J. (1994) Multiple-century response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Journal of Climate, 7: 5–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Oppenheimer, C. (2003), Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815. Progress in Physical Geography, 27: 230–259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Osborn T.J. and Hulme M. (2001) Evidence for trends in heavy rainfall events over the UK. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, 360(A): 1313–1325.Google Scholar
  16. Parry, M.L., Rosenzweig, Iglesis, A., Fischer, G., and Livermore, M. (1999) Climate change and world food security: A new assessment. Global Environmental Change, 8: 51–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Pearson, S., Wheeler, T.R., Hadley, P., and Wheldon, A.E. (1997) A validated model to predict the effects of the environment on the growth of lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.): Implications for climate change. Journal of Horticultural Science, 72: 503–517.Google Scholar
  18. Peart, R.M., Curry, R.B., Rozenzweig, C., Jones, J.W., Boote, K.J., and Allen, L.H.J. (1995) Energy and irrigation in southeastern U.S. agriculture under climate change. Journal of Biogeography, 22: 635–642.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Peiris, D.R., Crawford, J.W., Grashoff, C., Jefferies, R.A., Porter, J.R., and Marshall, B. (1996) A simulation study of crop growth and development under climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 79: 271–287.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Rahmstorf, S. (1999) Shifting seas in the greenhouse? Nature, 399: 523–524.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Rampino, M. (2002) Threats to civilisation from impacts and super-eruptions. Conference Proceedings of Environmental Catastrophes and Recoveries, Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK.Google Scholar
  22. Reilly, J., Tubiello, F., McCarl, B., and Mellilo, J. (2000) Climate change and agriculture in the united states. In: Climate Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. Report for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  23. Rozenzweig, C., Parry, M.L., and Fischer, G. (1995) World food supply. In: As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications (Eds. K.M. Strzepek and Smith), Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
  24. Sarnthein, M. et al. (1994) Changes in east Atlantic deepwater circulation over the last 30, 000 years: Eight time slice reconstructions. Paleoceanography, 9: 209–267.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  25. Wheeler, T.R., Ellis, R.H., Hadley, P., Morison, J.I.L., Batts, G.R., and Daymond, A.J. (1996) Assessing the effects of climate change on field crop production. Aspects of Applied Biology, 45: 49–54.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science + Business Media B.V 2008

Authors and Affiliations

  • C. Wallace
    • 1
  • D. Viner
    • 2
  1. 1.National Oceanography CentreUK
  2. 2.Principal Specialist Climate Change, Science and EvidenceUK

Personalised recommendations