Social Upheaval and Fertility Decline

Abstract

A significant theme in fertility transition theory is that family size tends to be larger than child mortality levels and material conditions would necessitate. This is explained by the persistence of cultural supports or “props” fashioned in an earlier era and implies that fertility is likely to decline if there is a major social upheaval such as is constituted by a revolution or defeat in a total war. The proposition has recently been put forward with regard to the French and American Revolutions. This article examines thirteen major upheavals, most in Europe, and finds support for the thesis that they are accompanied by unusual fertility declines. Less support is found for the proposition that the explanation is the weakening of now outdated cultural forces. Rather, the demographic change seems to involve a transition from fertility levels appropriate to earlier material conditions to ones suited to the new situation. The one factor that is common to all upheavals is an uncertainty about the future and a desire to postpone irreversible demographic decisions until the situation is clearer. Among those countries already undergoing a fertility transition, fertility levels do not return to precrisis levels, although the subsequent rate of decline is usually slower than during the crisis.