Abstract
The paper’s main concern is to establish a general methodology for economic loss estimation as a result of a large-scale flooding. The issue of economic loss definition is addressed in an attempt to unify the scattered definitions currently circulating in the ‘disaster’ literature. Total effect includes the direct loss to households and government, direct business interruption and induced indirect losses on production all over the country. The input-output model is proposed as a basic modelling framework. The discussion involves appropriate definition of direct and indirect costs within this framework. Adaptations to the model are proposed to account for asymmetric shock aspects such as ‘production bottlenecks’ and substitution effects. The time dimension of the model is a 2-year period. A bi-regional input-output table is utilised for tracing the inter-regional ties within the country and to estimate the disaster-induced changes of the economic structure The case study of a dike breakage in the province of South Holland in the Netherlands provides an example of modelling vast economic consequences. Two basic models are compared: a reference standard input-output damage evaluation model and adjusted models examining the impact of economic recovery of production ‘bottlenecks’ and substitution effects from imports and production transfer to other regions. It is shown that with the same level of initial disruption final loss figure depends on the ability of an economy to adjust. Whereas the presence of ‘bottlenecks’ in the after-flood situation drags the final estimate far below the reference figure, the emergence of flexible conditions for the economic response provides more optimistic results
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Benson C, Clay EJ (2000) Developing countries and the economic impacts of natural disasters. In: Kreimer A et al (eds) Managing disaster risk in emerging economies, The World Bank, Washington, DC, pp11–21
Benson C, Clay EJ (2004) Understanding the economic and financial impacts of natural disasters. The World Bank, Washington, DC
CAE (1997) Risk and realities. A multidisciplinary approach to the vulnerability of lifelines to natural hazards, Christchurch, New Zealand
Chang SE (1997) Direct economic impacts. In: Shinozuka M et al (eds) Engineering and socioeconomic impacts of earthquakes: an analysis of electricity lifeline disruption in the new madrid area, MCEER, Buffalo, pp75–94
Cochrane HC (1997a) Economic impact of a midwest earthquake. In: NCEER Bulletin, vol. 11(1): pp1–5
Cochrane HC (1997b) Forecasting the economic impact of a midwest earthquake. In: Jones G (ed) Economic consequences of earthquakes: preparing for the unexpected, NCEER, Buffalo, USA, pp223–248
Cole S, Pantoja E, Razak V (1993) Social accounting for disaster preparedness and recovery planning. NCEER, Buffalo, USA
Colombo AG, Vetere Arellano AL (2002) Dissemination of lessons learnt from disasters. In: Proc. NEDIES Workshop, ISPRA, Italy
de By RA, Knippers RA et al (2001) Principles of geographic information systems. The International Instistute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences (ITC), Enschede, the Netherlands
ECLAC (1991) Manual for estimating the socio-economic effetcs of natural disasters. United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Santiago, Chile
ECLAC (2003) Handbook for estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of disasters. UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, IBRD, The World Bank
Eding G, Stelder TM et al (1995) Bi-regionale interactie. REG, Stichting Ruimtelijk Economie Groningen. Groningen, the Netherlands
Ellson RW, Milliman JW, Roberts RB (1984) Measuring the regional economic effects of earthquakes and earthquake predictions. Journal of Regional Science 24(4): 559–579
Freeman PK, Martin LA et al (2002) Catastrophes and development; integrating natural catastrophes into development planning; The World Bank, Working papers series no. 4. Washington, USA
French SP (1998) Spatial analysis techniques for linking physical damage to economic functions. In: Shinozuka M et al (eds) Engineering and socioeconomic impacts of earthquakes: an analysis of electricity lifeline disruption in the new madrid adrea, MCEER, Buffalo, USA, pp45–52
Ghosh A (1958) Input-output approach in an allocation system. Economica, New Series 25(97):58–64
ISDR (2002) Living with risk: a global review of disaster reduction initiatives. Geneva, United Nations
Islam KMN (2000) Micro- and Macro-level impacts of floods in Bangladesh: In: Parker DJ (ed) Floods, vol I, Routledge, London and New York, pp156–171
Kreimer A, Arnold M (2000) Managing disaster risk in emerging economies. World Bank, Washington, DC
Leontief W (1986) Input-output economics, 2nd edn. Oxford University press
MAFF (2000) Flood and coastal defence project appraisal guidance: economic appraisal. Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, London, UK
Miller RE, Blair PD (1985) Input-output analysis. Foundations and extensions, University of Pennsylvania, USA, pp100–147
Okuyama Y (2003) Modelling spatial economic impacts of disasters: IO approaches. In: Proceedings workshop In search of common methodology on damage estimation, May 2003, Delft, the Netherlands
Okuyama Y, Hewings G, Sonis M (2002) Economic impacts of unscheduled events: Sequential Interindustry Models (SIM) approach. In: Proceedings 14th international conference on input-output techniques, Montreal, Canada
Parker DJ, Green CH, Thompson PM (1987) Urban flood protection benefits, a project appraisal guide. Aldershot, Gower
Rose A, Lim D (2002) Business interruption losses from natural hazards: conceptual and methodological issues in the case of the Northridge earthquake. Environmental hazards 4:1–14
Rose A, Benavides J (1998) Regional economic impacts. In: Shinozuka M et al (eds) Engineering and socioeconomic impacts of earthquakes: an analysis of electricity lifeline disruption in the New Madrid Area, MCEER, Buffalo, pp95–123
Scawthorn CH, Lashkari B, Naseer A (1997) What happened in Kobe and what if it happened here. In: Jones BC (ed) Economic consequences of earthquakes: preparing for the unexpected, NCEER, Buffalo, USA, pp15–50
Schaffer WA (1999) Regional impact models, web book of regional science. (www.rri.wvu.edu/regscweb.htm)
Tierney K, Nigg J (1995) Business vulnerability to disaster-related lifeline disruption. In: Proceedings the 4th U.S. conference on lifeline earthquake engineering, Technical council of lifeline earthquake engineering, American Society of Civil Engineering, New York, pp72–79
van der Veen A, Steenge AE, Bockarjova M, Logtmeijer CJJ (2003) Structural economic effects of a large scale innundation: a simulation of the krimpen dike breakage. In: van der Veen A, Vetere Arellano AL, Nordvik J-P (eds) In search of a common methodology for damage estimation, Joint NEDIES and University of Twente Workshop, Report EUR 20997 EN, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Italy
van der Veen A, Groenendijk NS, Mol NP (2001) Cost-benefit analysis and evaluation of measures against floods. In: Proceedings workshop delft cluster. Wat als we nat gaan? Een beschouwing van de stand van zaken. Waterloopkundig Laboratorium, Delft, the Netherlands
Vrisou van Eck N, Kok M (2001) Standaard Methode Schade en Slachtoffers als gevolg van overstromingen, HKV & Dienst weg en waterbouwkunde, Lelystad & Delft, the Netherlands
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2007 Springer
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Bočkarjova, M., Steenge, A., Van Der Veen, A. (2007). Structural Economic Effects of Large-Scale Inundation. In: Begum, S., Stive, M.J.F., Hall, J.W. (eds) Flood Risk Management in Europe. Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, vol 25. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4200-3_8
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-4200-3_8
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-4199-0
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-4200-3
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)